中国地方政府的“相机抉择依赖症”与地区经济波动

发布时间：2018-11-03 11:26

【摘要】：近年来,土地财政和地方融资平台的出现使得现有财政体制对地方政府行为的约束出现软化的迹象。在这一制度环境下,地方政府在制定相机性财政政策时更少地基于稳定地区经济考虑,而更大程度上是为了争取财政收入和地区利益。这使地方政府的财政活动长期呈现出较大的随机性特征,不利于地区经济稳定。通过对地方政府的财政政策进行分解,利用我国省级面板数据发现,地方政府的相机性财政政策对异常消费具有一定的平抑作用,但加剧了异常投资的波动。相对消费波动,投资波动是经济波动的主要来源。所以我国地方政府的相机性财政政策实际上隐含了较大的经济波动风险。这一结论为下一步财政体制改革中注重构建对地方政府经济活动的内生制度约束提供了经验支撑。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the emergence of land finance and local financing platforms has made the existing financial system to the local government behavior constraints show signs of softening. In this institutional environment, local governments are less concerned with stabilizing the regional economy when formulating the fiscal policy, and to a greater extent in order to strive for financial revenue and regional interests. This causes the local government's financial activity to present the bigger randomness characteristic for a long time, which is unfavorable to the regional economic stability. By decomposing the local government's fiscal policy and using the provincial panel data, it is found that the local government's fiscal policy has a certain stabilizing effect on abnormal consumption, but it intensifies the fluctuation of abnormal investment. Relative consumption fluctuation, investment fluctuation is the main source of economic fluctuation. Therefore, the local government's fiscal policy implies a greater risk of economic fluctuations. This conclusion provides empirical support for the next financial system reform to lay stress on the construction of endogenous institutional constraints on local government economic activities.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;武汉大学财政金融研究中心;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“我国公共财政风险评估及防范对策研究”(10JZD0023)
【分类号】：F812.7;F127

【参考文献】