中国各省区财政偿债能力的比较与演进:2005—2012

发布时间：2018-11-15 13:35

【摘要】：借鉴国际信用评级机构的主权信用评级管理经验,设计中国各省区财政偿债能力的分层指标体系,测算2005—2012年省域财政偿债能力的客观熵值法量化评级结果。研究表明,中国省际财政偿债能力持续走低,并呈现出从东到西逐级递减的阶梯状布局,从中央到省级以下政府示范延伸的非对称财权事权分配框架使得西部基层政府的偿债能力尤其孱弱,而东、西两大区域内部的偿债能力正逐步趋同。为此,亟需在财政部门组建地方政府债务监控机构,实现地方财政偿债风险的区域联动预警,以"事前设限、事中控管、事后调整"的"三位一体"式动态监管策略,强化地方财政偿债能力。
[Abstract]:Based on the experience of sovereign credit rating management of international credit rating agencies, this paper designs a hierarchical index system of the financial solvency of provinces and regions in China, and calculates the quantitative results of the rating of provincial fiscal solvency from 2005 to 2012 by the objective entropy method. Studies have shown that China's inter-provincial financial solvency continues to decline and presents a ladder pattern of gradual decline from east to west. The asymmetric financial power distribution framework from the central level to the provincial level makes the basic government in the west especially weak in debt servicing capacity, while the debt repayment capacity of the eastern and western regions is gradually converging. Therefore, it is urgent to set up the local government debt monitoring organization in the finance department, to realize the regional linkage early warning of the local financial debt repayment risk, and to adopt the "trinity" dynamic supervision strategy of "setting up limits beforehand, controlling management in matters, and adjusting afterwards". Strengthen the local financial solvency.
【作者单位】：南开大学经济学院;徽商银行阜阳分行;天津工业大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目“中国地方财政隐性赤字的规模估测、风险量化与动态监管研究”(71203106) 韩国高等教育财团(KFAS)“国际学者交流计划(ISEF)”2013—2014年度受益者基金项目天津市“131创新人才”支持计划项目
【分类号】：F812.7

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