欧债危机和德国应对危机的政策分析
发布时间：2018-11-28 07:27
【摘要】：2008年金融危机爆发之后,全球经济发展陷入低谷。世界各国纷纷抛出巨大的经济刺激方案,振兴经济。这些方案带来的最直接,也是最严重的后果就是全球主权债务的不断攀升。2009年希腊爆出主权债务危机,并引发多米诺效应,蔓延至整个欧元区,最终酿成了欧洲主权债务危机。欧债危机不仅给缓慢发展的世界经济蒙上了一层阴影,也严重打击了市场对欧元的信心并威胁到了欧洲一体化的进程。随着欧债危机的深化,欧盟以及欧洲经货联盟本身的结构性缺陷也逐渐显现出来。而由于欧债危机,欧元区成员国内部社会冲突不断,欧元区各成员国之间由于对救助方案的不同意见,矛盾也日益尖锐,特别是欧债危机重债国同欧洲经济领头羊——德国之间争吵不断。 研究欧债危机形成的机理,揭示欧洲危机爆发的原因,分析欧债危机解决的方法,探析德国在欧债危机中的政策和立场成为本研究课题的出发点。研究目的主要集中在以下三点：一是从欧债危机的爆发和演变入手,分析欧债危机的原因,解决方案以及影响；二是从德国在欧债危机中,出色的经济表现入手,分析德国在欧债危机中政策、立场及其原因,判断其角色定位和作用,因为如果没有德国的积极参与,欧债危机不可能顺利解决。通过分析,可以更好地了解德国对欧债的态度和今后的政策。三是在上述研究的基础上,进一步探索欧债危机带来的理论思考以及未来发展的政策和方向,从而给出针对性的建议。 在研究中,力求理论分析、文献分析和比较分析能够有机结合,宏观和微观层面的分析相互补充,灵活运用横向与纵向的比较和联系的研究方法,剥茧抽丝,层层剥笋,探寻问题的根源。本文的主要研究结论如下： 欧债危机并不是一个单纯的债务问题,它是集银行业危机、社会危机和政治危机,三位一体的危机复合体,其爆发的原因也是多方面的。最根本的原因还是结构问题：一个是生产力与生产关系的结构错位,主要体现在财政政策的不统一以及经济增长连续性的缺失；一个是南北结构问题,南北经济发展不平衡；一个是政治与经济结构问题：经货联盟发展的同时,没有相匹配的政治联盟的发展。 从欧债危机救援的全过程,可以看到欧债危机主要要解决三大问题：治标还是治本、是执行紧缩还是增长政策、从何处筹资来纾困。解决的办法恰恰也就是针对这三点：1.治本：立法,2.兼用紧缩和增长：理政,3.筹资纾困：出钱。 德国作为欧洲经济的领头羊,欧洲一体化的“发动机”之一,由于其良好的经济表现,在整个欧债危机救援过程中,担任了“领导者”的角色,但是,在整个救助过程中,德国从维护自身的利益和考虑国内政治环境的角度出发,所表现出来的强硬态度,在欧洲也重新引发了“德国威胁论”的论调。所以,德国在整个危机中是处于一个两难的局面,必须要在德国利益和欧洲利益之间找到一个平衡点。 基于以上分析,本文最后对欧债危机的走向做了基本的展望,并提出了有针对性的建议。
[Abstract]:After the financial crisis in 2008, global economic development was in a low ebb. The countries of the world have thrown huge economic stimulus packages and reinvigorate the economy. The most immediate and most serious consequence of these programmes is the rising global sovereign debt. In 2009, Greece had a sovereign debt crisis and triggered a domino effect that spread to the entire eurozone and eventually led to a European sovereign debt crisis. The euro's debt crisis is not only a shadow of the slow-growing world economy, but also the market's confidence in the euro and the process of European integration. With the deepening of the European debt crisis, the structural defects of the European Union and the European Union of Transporters themselves have also emerged. As a result of the European debt crisis, the internal social conflict of the member countries of the euro area has continued, and the contradiction is also increasingly acute among the member states of the euro area due to the different opinions on the rescue plan, especially the relationship between the European debt crisis and the European economic leader _ Germany. The mechanism of the crisis of Europe's debt crisis is studied, the reason of the crisis of Europe is revealed, the method of the settlement of the European debt crisis is analyzed, and the policy and position of Germany in the European debt crisis has become the starting point of this research project. The study aims to focus on the following three points: first, starting with the outbreak and evolution of the European debt crisis, analyzing the causes, solutions and effects of the European debt crisis; and secondly, starting with the excellent economic performance of Germany in the European debt crisis, and analyzing Germany's governance in the European debt crisis The policy, position and its causes are to judge the position and role of its role, because, without the active participation of Germany, the European debt crisis can't be solved smoothly. A better understanding of Germany's attitude to European debt and future governance through analysis The third is to further explore the theoretical thinking of the European debt crisis and the policy and direction of the future development on the basis of the above-mentioned research, so as to provide the targeted construction. On the basis of the analysis of the theory, the analysis of the literature and the comparative analysis can be combined with the analysis of the macro and the micro level, and the research methods of the comparison and the relation between the transverse and the longitudinal direction can be applied in a flexible way. The main source of this paper. The main study of this paper The following: The European debt crisis is not a simple debt problem. It is a three-in-one crisis complex that integrates the banking crisis, the social crisis and the political crisis. The most basic reason is the structural problem: one is the structural dislocation of the productivity and the production relations, which is mainly reflected in the disunity of the fiscal policy and the lack of the continuity of economic growth; one is the north-south structural problem, and the economic development of the north and the south is not balanced; one is the politics and the passage the problem of economic structure: the development of the goods alliance does not match the politics The development of the alliance. From the whole process of the crisis rescue of the European debt crisis, we can see that the European debt crisis is mainly to solve the three major problems: the management standard or the rule of management is to implement the tightening or the growth policy, from Where to raise money to be trapped. The solution is exactly the same. For this three: 1. Governance: Legislation, 2. Contraction and Growth: rule of law, 3. Financing is difficult: to pay. Germany is one of the leading 鈥淭he engine鈥，
本文编号：2362219
[Abstract]:After the financial crisis in 2008, global economic development was in a low ebb. The countries of the world have thrown huge economic stimulus packages and reinvigorate the economy. The most immediate and most serious consequence of these programmes is the rising global sovereign debt. In 2009, Greece had a sovereign debt crisis and triggered a domino effect that spread to the entire eurozone and eventually led to a European sovereign debt crisis. The euro's debt crisis is not only a shadow of the slow-growing world economy, but also the market's confidence in the euro and the process of European integration. With the deepening of the European debt crisis, the structural defects of the European Union and the European Union of Transporters themselves have also emerged. As a result of the European debt crisis, the internal social conflict of the member countries of the euro area has continued, and the contradiction is also increasingly acute among the member states of the euro area due to the different opinions on the rescue plan, especially the relationship between the European debt crisis and the European economic leader _ Germany. The mechanism of the crisis of Europe's debt crisis is studied, the reason of the crisis of Europe is revealed, the method of the settlement of the European debt crisis is analyzed, and the policy and position of Germany in the European debt crisis has become the starting point of this research project. The study aims to focus on the following three points: first, starting with the outbreak and evolution of the European debt crisis, analyzing the causes, solutions and effects of the European debt crisis; and secondly, starting with the excellent economic performance of Germany in the European debt crisis, and analyzing Germany's governance in the European debt crisis The policy, position and its causes are to judge the position and role of its role, because, without the active participation of Germany, the European debt crisis can't be solved smoothly. A better understanding of Germany's attitude to European debt and future governance through analysis The third is to further explore the theoretical thinking of the European debt crisis and the policy and direction of the future development on the basis of the above-mentioned research, so as to provide the targeted construction. On the basis of the analysis of the theory, the analysis of the literature and the comparative analysis can be combined with the analysis of the macro and the micro level, and the research methods of the comparison and the relation between the transverse and the longitudinal direction can be applied in a flexible way. The main source of this paper. The main study of this paper The following: The European debt crisis is not a simple debt problem. It is a three-in-one crisis complex that integrates the banking crisis, the social crisis and the political crisis. The most basic reason is the structural problem: one is the structural dislocation of the productivity and the production relations, which is mainly reflected in the disunity of the fiscal policy and the lack of the continuity of economic growth; one is the north-south structural problem, and the economic development of the north and the south is not balanced; one is the politics and the passage the problem of economic structure: the development of the goods alliance does not match the politics The development of the alliance. From the whole process of the crisis rescue of the European debt crisis, we can see that the European debt crisis is mainly to solve the three major problems: the management standard or the rule of management is to implement the tightening or the growth policy, from Where to raise money to be trapped. The solution is exactly the same. For this three: 1. Governance: Legislation, 2. Contraction and Growth: rule of law, 3. Financing is difficult: to pay. Germany is one of the leading 鈥淭he engine鈥，
本文编号：2362219
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