财政支出与技术进步对居民消费的影响
发布时间：2018-12-15 00:04
【摘要】：近年来,我国居民国内消费率较低的事实与我国居民在海外大量购买国外产品、消费额逐年上升的现象形成了一种反差。这种反差实际上折现出我国居民当前消费需求的新变化:商品品质的高低已经成为影响我国居民消费决策的重要因素。商品的品质与厂商的生产技术水平直接相关,因此,这一新的消费需求变化说明,厂商较低的生产技术水平会抑制居民消费,而技术水平的提高会促进居民消费,提升我国居民消费率的关键在于促进技术进步。由于技术进步在一定程度上具有外部性和公共产品的性质。因此,政府作为宏观经济的调控者,理应在促进技术进步和提振居民消费上发挥重要作用。根据学者们过往的研究,不同类型的财政支出对于居民消费会产生不同的挤入和挤出效应。其研究角度往往从财政支出的生产性和消费性两方面切入,忽视了财政政策通过促进厂商的技术水平来影响居民消费这一重要途径。因此,本文分三个层次,从理论和实证两个方面,研究财政支出与技术进步对居民消费的影响。层次一:对我国居民消费现状和财政政策支持科技创新的经验事实进行描述,归纳并总结财政政策对于技术进步的影响以及技术进步对居民消费的影响,搭建起通过技术进步的视角研究财政支出影响居民消费的通道。层次二:构建理论框架分析政府支出与技术进步对居民消费的影响。在理论分析框架中,本文在分析了技术水平与居民消费二者关系的基础上,将政府与研发相关的公共支出引入知识积累函数,将其纳入Barro(1990)对政府支出的分析框架中,构建同时包含技术进步、生产性和消费性三类公共支出的内生增长模型,并得到两个重要命题:命题一:技术水平的高低会对居民消费产生影响,技术水平提高时,居民消费增长率也会随之提高,技术水平下降时,居民消费增长率也会随之下降;当技术水平较高时,居民消费增长率为正,技术进步会促进居民消费,当技术水平较低时,居民消费增长率为负,即使存在技术进步也会对居民消费产生副作用。命题二:政府的RD支出有利于促进技术进步,并且存在一个有关技术水平的临界值,当技术水平高于该临界值时,政府RD支出的增加有利于促进居民消费,并且支出水平越高,消费的增长率越快;当技术水平低于该临界值时,政府RD支出与居民消费负相关,但RD支出对居民消费的抑制程度会随着其支出水平的提高而下降。层次三:构建实证框架分析政府支出与技术进步对居民消费的影响。在实证分析框架中,本文运用2005-2014年我国30个省(西藏除外)的面板数据,考察了政府支出与技术水平对我国居民消费的影响。检验结果证明了理论分析得到的两个命题,并且十分稳健。实证检验结果还进一步证明,大多数与技术进步相关的投入或成果(如:RD支出、政府科技支出、人均教育年限、专利等)都会通过促进技术进步影响居民消费。在对RD活动按照不同研究类型进行划分后发现,试验开发对消费的促进作用最强,基础研究次之,应用研究不显著;在对RD活动按照不同执行机构进行划分后发现,高技术产业的研发活动对消费的促进作用最强,企业次之,研发机构再次,高校不显著。本文同样测算出要想使技术进步促进居民消费,各类RD资本存量所应具备的临界值,这些临界值可以作为衡量我国各类RD支出水平是否合意的标准。此外,实证研究结果还证明,政府科技支出能通过促进技术进步对居民消费产生影响,政府科技支出的滞后1期值对消费的促进作用强于同等数量的当期RD支出;生产性公共支出对居民消费具有显著影响,并且影响持续时间长,不同时期的影响效果也具有不同的性质;消费性公共支出同样对居民消费具有显著影响,当消费性公共支出与居民的消费需求为互补关系时,居民消费与消费性公共支出正相关;财政分权度对居民消费具有显著影响,居民消费与财政收入分权度正相关,与财政支出分权度负相关。
[Abstract]:In recent years, there is a contrast between the fact that the consumption rate of the residents in our country is low and the large amount of foreign products purchased abroad by the residents of our country. The contrast actually shows the new change of the current consumption demand of our population: the quality of the goods has become an important factor to affect the consumption decision of our country. The quality of the goods is directly related to the manufacturer's production technical level. Therefore, this new consumption demand change indicates that the lower production technology level of the manufacturer can restrain the consumption of the consumer, and the improvement of the technical level will promote the consumption of the consumer. The key to improving the consumption rate of our residents is to promote the technological progress. As a result of technological progress, it has the externality and the nature of public goods to some extent. As a result, the government should play an important role in promoting the technological progress and raising the consumer's consumption. According to the research of the scholars, different types of financial expenditure will have different extrusion and extrusion effects on the residents' consumption. The research angle tends to cut from both the productivity and the consumption of the financial expenditure, and neglect the important way of the fiscal policy to influence the consumer's consumption through the promotion of the technology level of the Chinese manufacturers. Therefore, this paper divides three levels, and studies the effect of financial expenditure and technological progress on the residents' consumption. Level 1: To describe and summarize the impact of fiscal policy on the technological progress and the impact of the technological progress on the consumption of the residents in the light of the present state of the resident's resident consumption and the empirical fact that the fiscal policy supports the innovation of science and technology. To set up a channel to study the influence of the financial expenditure on the consumption of the residents through the perspective of technological progress. Level 2: Building a theoretical framework to analyze the effect of government expenditure and technological progress on the consumption of residents. Based on the analysis of the relationship between the technology level and the resident's consumption, this paper introduces the government's public expenditure related to R & D into the knowledge accumulation function, and then it is included in the analysis of the government expenditure by Barro (1990). The endogenous growth model of three kinds of public expenditure of productivity and consumption has two important propositions: the proposition 1: the high and low level of the technical level will affect the resident's consumption, and when the technical level is improved, the consumption growth rate of the residents will also increase, and the technical level will decrease. The growth rate of resident consumption will also decrease. When the technology level is high, the consumption growth rate of residents is positive, and the technological progress will promote the consumption of the consumer. When the technology level is low, the consumption rate of resident consumption is negative, even if there is technological progress, it will have side effects on the resident's consumption. Proposition 2: The RD expenditure of the government is favorable to the promotion of technological progress, and there is a critical value related to the technical level. When the technical level is higher than the critical value, the increase of the government RD expenditure is favorable to the promotion of the consumption of the consumer, and the higher the expenditure level, the faster the consumption is. When the technology level is lower than the critical value, the government RD expenditure is negatively related to the consumption of the consumer, but the degree of the RD expenditure on the consumption of the residents will decrease with the increase of the expenditure level. Level 3: To build an empirical framework to analyze the effect of government expenditure and technological progress on the consumption of residents. In the framework of the empirical analysis, the paper uses the panel data of 30 provinces (except Tibet) in China from 2005 to 2014 to study the effect of government expenditure and technical level on the consumption of our country. The results of the test prove the two propositions obtained by the theoretical analysis, and are very robust. The results of the empirical test further prove that most input or results related to technological progress (such as RD expenditure, government scientific and technological expenditure, per capita education life, patent, etc.) will influence the consumption of residents by promoting technological progress. After the RD activity was divided according to different research types, the effect of test and development on consumption was the strongest, the basic research was the second, and the application research was not significant; after the RD activities were divided according to different actuators, The research and development activities of the high-tech industry have the strongest promoting effect on consumption, the enterprises are the second, and the R & D institutions are not significant again. The paper also calculates the critical value that should be possessed by the technology progress to promote the consumption of consumption and various RD capital, and these critical values can be used as the standard to measure whether the level of RD expenditure in our country is desirable. in addition, that result of the empirical study also prove that the government's scientific and technological expenditure can have an impact on the resident's consumption through the promotion of technological progress, the delay of the government's scientific and technological expenditure is stronger than the equivalent amount of the current RD expenditure, and the productive public expenditure has a significant impact on the resident's consumption. and the consumption public expenditure has a significant impact on the resident consumption, and when the consumption public expenditure is in a complementary relationship with the consumption demand of the residents, the consumption of the consumer is positively related to the consumption public expenditure; The degree of fiscal decentralization has a significant impact on the resident's consumption, and the decentralization of the residents' consumption and the fiscal revenue is positively related, and is negatively related to the degree of decentralization of the financial expenditure.
【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.45;F124.3;F126.1
本文编号：2379556
[Abstract]:In recent years, there is a contrast between the fact that the consumption rate of the residents in our country is low and the large amount of foreign products purchased abroad by the residents of our country. The contrast actually shows the new change of the current consumption demand of our population: the quality of the goods has become an important factor to affect the consumption decision of our country. The quality of the goods is directly related to the manufacturer's production technical level. Therefore, this new consumption demand change indicates that the lower production technology level of the manufacturer can restrain the consumption of the consumer, and the improvement of the technical level will promote the consumption of the consumer. The key to improving the consumption rate of our residents is to promote the technological progress. As a result of technological progress, it has the externality and the nature of public goods to some extent. As a result, the government should play an important role in promoting the technological progress and raising the consumer's consumption. According to the research of the scholars, different types of financial expenditure will have different extrusion and extrusion effects on the residents' consumption. The research angle tends to cut from both the productivity and the consumption of the financial expenditure, and neglect the important way of the fiscal policy to influence the consumer's consumption through the promotion of the technology level of the Chinese manufacturers. Therefore, this paper divides three levels, and studies the effect of financial expenditure and technological progress on the residents' consumption. Level 1: To describe and summarize the impact of fiscal policy on the technological progress and the impact of the technological progress on the consumption of the residents in the light of the present state of the resident's resident consumption and the empirical fact that the fiscal policy supports the innovation of science and technology. To set up a channel to study the influence of the financial expenditure on the consumption of the residents through the perspective of technological progress. Level 2: Building a theoretical framework to analyze the effect of government expenditure and technological progress on the consumption of residents. Based on the analysis of the relationship between the technology level and the resident's consumption, this paper introduces the government's public expenditure related to R & D into the knowledge accumulation function, and then it is included in the analysis of the government expenditure by Barro (1990). The endogenous growth model of three kinds of public expenditure of productivity and consumption has two important propositions: the proposition 1: the high and low level of the technical level will affect the resident's consumption, and when the technical level is improved, the consumption growth rate of the residents will also increase, and the technical level will decrease. The growth rate of resident consumption will also decrease. When the technology level is high, the consumption growth rate of residents is positive, and the technological progress will promote the consumption of the consumer. When the technology level is low, the consumption rate of resident consumption is negative, even if there is technological progress, it will have side effects on the resident's consumption. Proposition 2: The RD expenditure of the government is favorable to the promotion of technological progress, and there is a critical value related to the technical level. When the technical level is higher than the critical value, the increase of the government RD expenditure is favorable to the promotion of the consumption of the consumer, and the higher the expenditure level, the faster the consumption is. When the technology level is lower than the critical value, the government RD expenditure is negatively related to the consumption of the consumer, but the degree of the RD expenditure on the consumption of the residents will decrease with the increase of the expenditure level. Level 3: To build an empirical framework to analyze the effect of government expenditure and technological progress on the consumption of residents. In the framework of the empirical analysis, the paper uses the panel data of 30 provinces (except Tibet) in China from 2005 to 2014 to study the effect of government expenditure and technical level on the consumption of our country. The results of the test prove the two propositions obtained by the theoretical analysis, and are very robust. The results of the empirical test further prove that most input or results related to technological progress (such as RD expenditure, government scientific and technological expenditure, per capita education life, patent, etc.) will influence the consumption of residents by promoting technological progress. After the RD activity was divided according to different research types, the effect of test and development on consumption was the strongest, the basic research was the second, and the application research was not significant; after the RD activities were divided according to different actuators, The research and development activities of the high-tech industry have the strongest promoting effect on consumption, the enterprises are the second, and the R & D institutions are not significant again. The paper also calculates the critical value that should be possessed by the technology progress to promote the consumption of consumption and various RD capital, and these critical values can be used as the standard to measure whether the level of RD expenditure in our country is desirable. in addition, that result of the empirical study also prove that the government's scientific and technological expenditure can have an impact on the resident's consumption through the promotion of technological progress, the delay of the government's scientific and technological expenditure is stronger than the equivalent amount of the current RD expenditure, and the productive public expenditure has a significant impact on the resident's consumption. and the consumption public expenditure has a significant impact on the resident consumption, and when the consumption public expenditure is in a complementary relationship with the consumption demand of the residents, the consumption of the consumer is positively related to the consumption public expenditure; The degree of fiscal decentralization has a significant impact on the resident's consumption, and the decentralization of the residents' consumption and the fiscal revenue is positively related, and is negatively related to the degree of decentralization of the financial expenditure.
【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.45;F124.3;F126.1
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