多部门模型中的政府支出乘数
发布时间：2019-01-24 16:16
【摘要】：作为重要的需求管理工具之一,财政政策为调控经济结构与熨平周期波动做出了巨大贡献。特别是在美联储逐步退出宽松货币政策及特朗普当选后中美"财政共振"的背景下,研究财政扩张的乘数效应及传导路径是极具理论与现实意义的。鉴于此,本文构建含有制造业部门与服务业部门的两部门DSGE模型,以分析政府消费型支出与投资型支出的结构性效应。研究发现,第一,制造业部门政府投资与政府消费型支出的财政乘数均小于服务业部门;第二,由于投资型支出不仅出现在需求端,而且通过累积公共资本的渠道进入生产端并产生了长期的供给侧拉动效应,即相较于消费型支出,投资型支出的乘数效应更明显且影响力更持久;第三,供给侧的拉动效应也将使得投资型支出的挤出效应更小。
[Abstract]:As one of the important demand management tools, fiscal policy has made a great contribution to regulating economic structure and ironing cycle fluctuations. Especially in the context of the gradual withdrawal of the Federal Reserve from loose monetary policy and the "fiscal resonance" between China and the United States after Trump's election, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the multiplier effect and transmission path of fiscal expansion. In view of this, this paper constructs a two-sector DSGE model including manufacturing sector and service sector to analyze the structural effects of government consumptive expenditure and investment-oriented expenditure. Firstly, the financial multiplier of government investment and government consumption expenditure in manufacturing sector is smaller than that in service sector. Second, because investment spending not only occurs on the demand side, but also enters the production end through the channel of accumulating public capital and has a long-term supply-side pull effect, that is, compared with consumer spending, The multiplier effect of investment expenditure is more obvious and lasting; Third, the supply-side pull effect will also make the investment-based expenditure extrusion effect smaller.
【作者单位】： 北京大学光华管理学院;
【分类号】：F810.4
本文编号：2414618
[Abstract]:As one of the important demand management tools, fiscal policy has made a great contribution to regulating economic structure and ironing cycle fluctuations. Especially in the context of the gradual withdrawal of the Federal Reserve from loose monetary policy and the "fiscal resonance" between China and the United States after Trump's election, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the multiplier effect and transmission path of fiscal expansion. In view of this, this paper constructs a two-sector DSGE model including manufacturing sector and service sector to analyze the structural effects of government consumptive expenditure and investment-oriented expenditure. Firstly, the financial multiplier of government investment and government consumption expenditure in manufacturing sector is smaller than that in service sector. Second, because investment spending not only occurs on the demand side, but also enters the production end through the channel of accumulating public capital and has a long-term supply-side pull effect, that is, compared with consumer spending, The multiplier effect of investment expenditure is more obvious and lasting; Third, the supply-side pull effect will also make the investment-based expenditure extrusion effect smaller.
【作者单位】： 北京大学光华管理学院;
【分类号】：F810.4
【相似文献】
相关期刊论文 前3条
1 许祥云;;不同环境下的政府支出乘数研究评述[J];经济理论与经济管理;2013年06期
2 翟杨;;云南省政府支出乘数研究[J];经济研究导刊;2014年20期
3 安德鲁·T.杨;匡桦;;为什么我们成为了凯恩斯主义者?[J];金融市场研究;2013年04期
，本文编号：2414618
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/guanlilunwen/shuishoucaizhenglunwen/2414618.html
