经济新常态下相机抉择的财政政策效果研究——基于市场情绪波动性的视角

发布时间：2019-03-04 17:17

【摘要】：选择城镇投资环比增长率、财政支出累计增长率、财政支出与广义货币供应量同比增长率比值这3个变量并收集到相关数据,建立GARCH、TGARCH模型,重点研究财政政策在实施的过程中市场情绪波动对投资行为产生的影响,从而进一步分析在经济新常态下财政政策的实施效果.结果显示,财政政策的实施对私人投资产生了挤出效应,但挤出的空间有限;财政政策与货币政策同时实施,产生协同作用,如果加大财政政策的实施力度,反而刺激了投资的增加.政策实施过程中,市场情绪对投资行为的波动影响是持久的,这种影响的效果随时间的推移逐渐减弱,对未来的预测有重要参考意义.当不利消息影响市场情绪时,财政政策的实施使这种负面因素对投资波动的冲击变小;经济步入新常态以后,由于经济发展速度的减缓,投资者的行为趋于谨慎.
[Abstract]:Select the three variables: the growth rate of investment in cities and towns, the cumulative growth rate of fiscal expenditure, and the ratio of fiscal expenditure to the growth rate of money supply in the broad sense, and collect the relevant data, and establish the GARCH,TGARCH model. This paper focuses on the impact of market mood fluctuation on investment behavior during the implementation of fiscal policy, and further analyzes the effect of fiscal policy implementation under the new economic normal. The results show that the implementation of fiscal policy has an crowding-out effect on private investment, but the space for crowding out is limited. Fiscal policy and monetary policy are implemented at the same time, resulting in synergy. If we increase the implementation of fiscal policy, it stimulates the increase of investment. In the process of policy implementation, the volatility of market sentiment on investment behavior is lasting, and the effect of this effect gradually decreases with the passage of time, which has important reference significance for future prediction. When bad news affects market sentiment, the implementation of fiscal policy makes the impact of negative factors on investment volatility become smaller; after entering the new normal, investors' behavior tends to be cautious because of the slowing down of economic development.
【作者单位】：安徽财经大学财政与公共管理学院;
【分类号】：F812.0

【参考文献】