基于案例驱动的社区应急疏散情景应对准备规划

发布时间：2018-02-09 13:41

  本文关键词： 城市社区 应急疏散 情景-应对 案例驱动 准备规划　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着城市化进程的日益加快及城市建设的快速发展,作为现代人们生活、生产的主要活动区域,城市的人口越来越稠密。一方面城市人口的增加为社会发展提供着源动力,另一方面人群聚集通常也是事故发生的隐患,有时也是造成二次事故发生的根源。一般人口拥挤度越高,事故发生后造成的灾难也就越大,人口与物质的高度集中使城市面临灾害时的易损性大大增加。尤其城市中人员密集场所,其人群密度非常大、流动性很强,一旦发生突发事件等紧急情况,在安全疏散设施不完备或者疏散决策不合理时,就有可能造成大量人员伤亡和财产损失。社区作为城市中最基本的空间单元、基本的功能地域及行政单元,成为了城市防灾、减灾规划中最具操作意义的空间单元,由于其人口密度高、人员种类多样,以其进行应急疏散研究具典型的示范作用。本文基于“情景-应对”研究了应急管理领域相关问题,以管理学、计算机科学、灾害学等多个学科的理论技术为基础,提出了社区应急疏散情景应对规划的案例-模型驱动方法,并对其在社区应急疏散过程中的应用进行了研究。按照社区应急疏散理论分析、社区应急准备规划框架构建、并基于准备规划框架进行案例的情景应对建模和疏散本体构建的顺序,设计了全文研究路径。首先,对以往应急疏散研究理论进行了回顾,并提出了本研究所需的基本理论,即案例驱动理论与情景认知理论。其中,根据案例驱动理论,提出了社区应急疏散案例的要素构成和任务推理等内容;根据情景认知理论,提出了社区应急疏散中的情景内涵,并建立社区应急疏散情景框架。在已有研究及案例的基础上,比较三类社区突发事件案例,提取了三类社区突发事件的应急疏散情景特征和应急疏散任务特征。其次,设计了案例驱动的社区应急疏散准备规划框架。通过对社区应急疏散全流程中的预案、决策、任务、能力等分析,设计了主要包括灾害情景认知布局、应急疏散资源布局与应急疏散“数据-信息-知识”布局的框架体系,并在此基础上构建了致灾因子、疏散对象与疏散任务等三类情景-应对要素。特别是,在该框架中引入案例推理功能模块,可提升相应的社区应急疏散管理体系的运行效率与执行效果。再次,提出基于案例驱动的社区应急疏散情景应对建模方法。针对应急疏散决策,将案例驱动方法和智能建模技术有机结合,构建了相关的结构模型和本体模型,实现了社区应急疏散情景应对的过程元模型、情景元模型、任务元模型的形式化,并实现不确定和动态环境下的过程建模。然后,阐明了本文基于案例驱动进行社区应急疏散本体构建的方法。考虑应急疏散情景应对环境下各本体的特点,在社区应急疏散本体框架构建的过程中,首先将社区应急疏散影响因素本体分类,并基于影响因素本体研究了社区应急疏散的状态本体,并由此构建了社区应急疏散状态本体的框架。在这个过程中,研究发现应急疏散知识本体的共享对应急疏散效率影响十分显著,基于这个原因,本文构建了知识本体共享框架、并分析了知识本体共享的基本流程和实现路径规划,以保证应急疏散可以有序高效地进行。最后,提出案例驱动的社区应急情景决策桌面培训方法。该方法集成了案例推理、综合集成方法与顿悟学习法,以此构建了“互动-学习-顿悟-强化(ILIS)”的应急桌面培训学习机制,其可通过源案例决策观点生成、目标案例决策观点互动学习、顿悟启发与强化检验来提升应急决策者面向特定灾害情景的决策能力。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of city urbanization process is accelerating and city construction, as the life of modern people, the main production area, the city population is more and more dense. On the one hand to increase the population of the city to provide a source of power for the development of the society, on the other hand, the crowd is often the hidden danger of accidents, sometimes also caused two accidents the cause of the general population. The higher the degree of congestion, after the accident caused by the disaster is bigger, the highly concentrated population and material make the city facing disaster vulnerability is greatly increased. Especially in crowded places in the city, the population density is very large, liquidity is very strong, once the incident occurred in an emergency in the circumstances, the safety evacuation facilities or incomplete evacuation decision is not reasonable, it may cause a large number of casualties and property losses. The community as the basic spatial unit in the city, the basic The function of geographical and administrative units, the city has become a disaster prevention and mitigation planning, spatial unit in the most operation significance, because of its high population density, species diversity in the personnel, emergency evacuation demonstration research. In this paper, with a typical "scenario response" is studied based on relevant problems in emergency management, to management computer science and technology, theory of disaster science as the basis, proposed the method of driving the emergency evacuation scene coping planning community case model, and its application in the community emergency evacuation process was studied. According to the theoretical analysis of emergency evacuation community, construction of emergency preparedness planning framework based on community, and situational coping for the case of the modeling framework for planning and evacuation order of ontology construction, design the path of the whole dissertation. Firstly, the previous research of emergency evacuation theory review, and puts forward The basic theory for this study, namely case driven theory and situational cognitive theory. Among them, according to the case driven theory, put forward the elements of emergency evacuation case of community composition and task reasoning etc.; according to the situation of cognitive theory, proposed the community emergency evacuation of the scene in connotation, and the establishment of emergency evacuation scenarios based on framework of community. The existing research and case, compare the three types of community emergency case, extracted three types of community emergency evacuation and emergency evacuation scenario feature task characteristics. Secondly, the design of the case driven community emergency evacuation preparedness planning framework. Through the whole process of community emergency evacuation plan, decision-making, task, ability etc. the design mainly includes the analysis of disaster scene cognition layout, resource allocation and emergency evacuation of emergency evacuation "framework of data - Information - knowledge layout, and based On the construction of the disaster factors, evacuation and evacuation task object three scenario response elements. In particular, the introduction of case reasoning module in the framework, operation efficiency and execution effect can improve the corresponding community emergency evacuation management system. Thirdly, put forward the case driven community emergency evacuation modeling method based on scene coping. According to the emergency evacuation decision, the case driven method and intelligent modeling technology organically, build a structure model and ontology model, the Guo Chengyuan model of emergency evacuation scenarios dealing with community, situational element model, task model formalization, and the realization process of modeling uncertain and dynamic environment. Then, the in this case driven method of community emergency evacuation based on ontology construction. Considering the characteristics of the emergency evacuation situation to deal with ontology environment, in the community emergency evacuation body frame The process of architecture construction, firstly factors affecting the classification of emergency evacuation ontology community, and the influence factors on the status of ontology based on Ontology community emergency evacuation, and thus build a framework of emergency evacuation state ontology community. In this process, the study found that the emergency evacuation of sharing knowledge ontology for emergency evacuation efficiency effect is very significant, based on for this reason, this paper constructs the ontology knowledge sharing framework, and analyzes the basic flow of knowledge ontology and Realization of path planning, to ensure that emergency evacuation can be ordered effectively. Finally, put forward the community emergency scenario decision-making desktop case driven training method. This method integrates case-based reasoning, integrated method and insight learning method. In order to build a "interactive learning - epiphany - enhanced (ILIS)" emergency desktop training mechanism, which can be the source case decision idea generation, Objective case decision view interactive learning, insight inspiration and intensive test to improve decision-making ability of emergency decision-makers facing specific disaster situations.

【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D63
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本文编号：1498058