华南沿海突发电力灾害背景下公众行为研究

发布时间：2018-04-29 00:03

本文选题：突发电力灾害 + 公众行为　；参考：《华南理工大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：华南沿海地区由于其特殊的地理位置,是世界上气象灾害发生频率最高的地区,脆弱的电力系统时刻暴露在复杂的自然环境中,经常发生长时间大面积的停电事件。电力作为国家各项产业的支柱性能源,具有广泛性、不可替代性、即时性的特点[1],是整个社会系统的基底性支撑,突发的电力灾害如果长时间无法修复,将直接导致整个城市系统的崩溃。公众是政府行政的服务对象,灾后公众应急也常是政府忽略的部分,但目前突发电力灾害背景下的公众行为研究几近空白,本文针对突发电力灾害背景下公众应急理论依据不足的现状,进行了相关探索。台风及台风灾害链极易导致突发电力灾害的形成及传导,灾害的扩散效应不但增加了救灾难度,更是影响到公众生活的方方面面。针对恶性电力灾害下的公众行为,本文在理论及文献研究基础上结合调研数据提取出个体特征、物资供给、信息环境和心理环境四类公众行为的关键影响因素。并依据不同停电时间下的公众行为特点把公众行为发展过程划分为初始期、发展期、膨胀期、爆发期四个阶段,应用层次分析法分期研究各阶段下各类因素对公民行为的影响强度,最后根据这四类影响因素与公众行为的对应关系和相应权重,得到电力灾害下的影响因素重要性排序。其次,公民个体的承灾能力和生活环境是千差万别的,在各类因素的影响下表现出的心理模式和行为方式亦是不同的。根据公众在电力灾害中的个体行为趋势和表现特征,灾害中的公众可划分为领导者、参与者、跟随者和孤立者四种类型,四类公众的形成和发展与所处的社会背景息息相关,关系到制度和社会、灾害公众心态、政府应急工作等不同方面,并在互相的影响下逐渐朝集群行为发展。突发电力灾害下的群体行为可划分为良性(有序)、中性(无序)、恶性(极端)三类,其中带有维权和抗议的极端群体行为是最为频繁且破坏性和影响力最大的,根据调查反映的公众行为趋势,可将群体行为的形成分为独立期、聚集期和爆发期三个时间段。运用具有较强操作性的QSIM定性分析方法,分析了灾后各主体在灾害环境压力、社会环境压力、生活生存压力三类压力之下,其行为由平静到爆发的演变过程。结合环境因素和政府因素,通过群体内部四类公众之间的关系互动,分析了集群行为的发展路径。最后在政府工作层面,从制度体系、应急能力、联动水平三个方面介绍了华南地区目前的政府应急现状,虽然较前期有较大的提高,但依然存在着一些无法忽视的问题,电力灾害背景下集群倾向最高的群体具有高学历、高收入、在政府或事业单位工作等特征,这和其他类集群事件有很大的差别,本文结合公众调研中反应的对政府及电力部门的应急工作评价,从救灾渠道、信息沟通、物资供给、心理帮扶、应急公关等六个方面提出对策和意见。
[Abstract]:Due to its special geographical location, the coastal area of South China is the region with the highest frequency of meteorological disasters in the world. The fragile power system is always exposed to the complex natural environment, and a long time and a large area of power outages often occur. As the pillar energy of national industries, electric power has the characteristics of extensiveness, irreplaceable and instantaneity [1], which is the basic support of the whole social system. If the sudden electric disaster cannot be repaired for a long time, Will directly lead to the collapse of the entire urban system. The public is the service object of the government administration, and the public emergency after the disaster is often neglected by the government. However, the research on the public behavior under the background of the sudden electric disaster is almost blank. In this paper, the current situation of the lack of theoretical basis for public emergency response under the background of sudden electric disaster is discussed. Typhoon and typhoon disaster chain can easily lead to the formation and transmission of sudden electric disaster. The diffusion effect of the disaster not only increases the difficulty of disaster relief, but also affects all aspects of public life. In view of the public behavior under the malignant electric disaster, this paper extracts the key factors of the public behavior based on the research data, such as individual characteristics, material supply, information environment and psychological environment. According to the characteristics of public behavior in different blackout periods, the development process of public behavior is divided into four stages: initial period, development period, expansion period and outbreak period. AHP is used to study the influence intensity of various factors on civil behavior in different stages. Finally, according to the corresponding relationship and weight between the four kinds of factors and public behavior, the importance of influencing factors in power disaster is obtained. Secondly, the ability and living environment of individual citizens are different, and the psychological patterns and behavior patterns are different under the influence of various factors. According to the individual behavior trends and characteristics of the public in the electric disaster, the public in the disaster can be divided into four types: leader, participant, follower and isolator. The formation and development of the four types of public are closely related to the social background. Related to the system and society, disaster public mentality, government emergency work and other different aspects, and under the influence of each other gradually towards the cluster behavior. The group behavior under the sudden electric disaster can be divided into three categories: benign (orderly, neutral (disorder), malignant (extreme)), in which extreme group behavior with rights protection and protest is the most frequent, destructive and influential. According to the trend of public behavior, the formation of group behavior can be divided into three periods: independent period, aggregation period and outbreak period. By using the QSIM qualitative analysis method with strong operability, this paper analyzes the evolution process from calm to eruption of the subjects' behavior under three kinds of pressures: disaster environmental pressure, social environmental pressure and living pressure. Combined with environmental factors and government factors, this paper analyzes the development path of cluster behavior through the interaction among the four kinds of public in the group. Finally, at the level of government work, the paper introduces the current situation of government emergency in South China from three aspects: system system, emergency response ability and linkage level. Although there is a great improvement in the previous period, there are still some problems that can not be ignored. In the background of electric disaster, the group with the highest tendency of cluster has the characteristics of high education, high income, working in government or institution, which is very different from other cluster events. Based on the evaluation of the emergency work of the government and the electric power department, this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions from six aspects: relief channel, information communication, material supply, psychological help, emergency public relations and so on.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：D63;C912.6

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