基于NK模型的突发事件应急管理组织系统适应性研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 07:23

本文选题：应急管理 + 组织系统　；参考：《系统工程理论与实践》2017年06期

【摘要】：突发事件的发生发展具有高度不确定性,机械的应急管理组织系统缺乏适应性,难以有效应对.基于NK模型,以适应度景观的复杂性和动态性刻画应急管理决策情景的不确定性,研究简单稳态、复杂稳态、简单动态、复杂动态情景下,集权、分权和层级等决策模式的组织系统的适应性特征,以及组织文化、决策者能力、信息流等因素的影响机理.结果表明,简单稳态情景下,应采用分权模式且促进信息共享;复杂稳态情景下,宜保持适度集权;动态情景下,应采用层级模式并加强信息沟通.决策者能力与决策重心相一致,能有效增强组织系统的适应性.当信息流超过决策者能力时,具有合作文化的分权模式适应性较好.研究为中国应急管理体系顶层设计与模式重构提供理论方法.
[Abstract]:The occurrence and development of unexpected events are highly uncertain, and the mechanical emergency management organization system lacks adaptability and is difficult to deal with effectively. Based on NK model, the uncertainty of emergency management decision scenarios is described by the complexity and dynamics of adaptive landscape, and the centralized power is studied under simple steady state, complex steady state, simple dynamic and complex dynamic situations. The adaptive characteristics of organizational system in decision models such as decentralization and hierarchy, as well as the influence mechanism of organizational culture, decision maker's ability, information flow and so on. The results show that decentralization and information sharing should be adopted in simple steady-state scenarios, moderate centralization in complex steady-state scenarios, and hierarchical model and information communication in dynamic scenarios. The ability of decision-maker is consistent with the center of decision-making, which can effectively enhance the adaptability of the organization system. When the information flow exceeds the ability of decision makers, the decentralized mode with cooperative culture is more adaptable. The research provides a theoretical method for the top level design and pattern reconstruction of China's emergency management system.
【作者单位】：浙江师范大学经济与管理学院;同济大学经济与管理学院;同济大学电子与信息工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(91024023,91224003,71503185)~~
【分类号】：D63

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