基于FAHP和熵权的水利工程社会稳定风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-20 09:06

本文选题：FAHP + 熵权　；参考：《华北水利水电大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国目前正处于社会大变革时期。随着改革开放的深化和社会的飞速发展,各种结构性矛盾日益凸显,加之利益分化的进一步加大、经济体制和社会结构的重大调整以及人们思想观念的巨大变化,使得社会不稳定因素不断增加,党和政府越来越重视社会安全稳定问题,全国范围内的重大固定资产投资项目的社会稳定风险评估工作迅速展开。水利工程项目涉及面广、面临问题复杂、技术难度高,项目在征地拆迁、安置补偿、环境影响等方面极易引发社会稳定问题,所以水利工程项目的社会稳定风险评价是维护社会稳定的现实要求,对于化解社会矛盾,保障和促进经济社会发展等方面具有十分重要的意义。为了更好地对水利工程社会稳定风险进行评价,文章从理论概念入手,研究了水利工程社会稳定风险评价的依据、原则、流程及评价指标,构建了水利工程社会稳定风险评价指标体系。同时对风险评价过程中指标权重的确定方法进行深入分析,优化AHP法形成FAHP法,将模糊互补矩阵转化为模糊一致矩阵,计算过程无需一致性检验。利用FAHP法确定主观权重,熵权法确定客观权重,并在“传统FAHP和熵权组合法”的基础上,使用“熵权法修正FAHP法”和“FAHP法限制熵权法”两种新的综合权重确定方法。运用模糊数学理论建立水利工程社会稳定风险模糊综合评价模型。文章以某水利工程项目为案例进行计算,对比分析了FAHP法、熵权法与其它三种综合权重确定方法,对项目提出了风险防范措施及建议,验证了此评价模型的实用性和可操作性,以期对水利工程社会稳定风险评价实践提供一定的指导与借鉴。
[Abstract]:At present, our country is in the period of great social change. With the deepening of reform and opening up and the rapid development of society, various structural contradictions have become increasingly prominent, together with the further expansion of interest differentiation, the major adjustment of economic system and social structure, and the great changes in people's ideas. The factors of social instability are increasing, the party and government pay more and more attention to social security and stability, and the risk assessment of social stability of major fixed assets investment projects in the whole country is carried out rapidly. Water conservancy projects involve a wide range of issues, face complex problems, high technical difficulties, projects in land acquisition and demolition, resettlement compensation, environmental impact and other aspects of social stability problems, Therefore, the risk assessment of social stability of water conservancy projects is the realistic requirement of maintaining social stability, which is of great significance in resolving social contradictions, ensuring and promoting economic and social development. In order to evaluate the risk of social stability of water conservancy engineering better, the paper studies the basis, principle, process and evaluation index of the risk evaluation of social stability of water conservancy engineering from the theoretical concept. The evaluation index system of water conservancy engineering social stability risk is constructed. At the same time, the method of determining the index weight in the process of risk assessment is deeply analyzed, and the FAHP method is formed by optimizing the AHP method. The fuzzy complementary matrix is transformed into the fuzzy consistent matrix, and the consistency test is not required in the calculation process. Subjective weight is determined by FAHP method, objective weight is determined by entropy weight method. On the basis of "traditional FAHP and entropy weight combination method", two new comprehensive weight determination methods, FAHP method and FAHP method, are used to modify FAHP method and FAHP method. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of social stability risk of water conservancy engineering is established by using fuzzy mathematics theory. Taking a water conservancy project as a case, the paper compares and analyzes the FAHP method, entropy weight method and other three comprehensive weight determination methods, puts forward the risk prevention measures and suggestions for the project, and verifies the practicability and maneuverability of the evaluation model. In order to provide certain guidance and reference for water conservancy engineering social stability risk evaluation practice.
【学位授予单位】：华北水利水电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D630

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