全球重大突发事件发生规律及对中国的启示

发布时间：2018-07-20 13:25

【摘要】：随着经济全球化的快速发展,社会不稳定性因子逐渐增多,严重影响了国家、社会和生态环境等的安全。各种类型的重大突发事件发生频率和危害程度呈逐年上升的趋势。经济的快速发展导致人口流动性越来越大,使得社会安全和产业安全问题越来越突出,雾霾是中国近年来才有的现象,而英国、法国、德国、美国、日本等这些先行工业化国家过去曾经也发生过。因此,可以说人类社会中不同经济体的发展道路既有个性又有共性。中国作为亚洲乃至世界上最大的发展中国家,要实现可持续发展,就要尽量避免发达国家或参照国家当年所走的弯路;如果不能避免,就需要了解他们当年遇到的重大突发事件以及应急管理措施,以供中国借鉴和学习。本文主要以EM-DAT数据库为基础,分析了全球范围内重大突发事件的发生规律以及发达国家或参照国家的重大突发事件情况对中国的启示。具体的内容包括:(1)重大突发事件的主要数据来源为EM-DAT数据库,本文对EM-DAT数据库的进行了简洁明了的介绍,并对论文中涉及到的其他数据进行了说明;(2)在获得数据的基础上,对全球范围内13445例重大突发事件进行了规律性研究,主要从事件类型和分布区域方面进行分析。在事件类型方面研究了重大突发事件总量和年度趋势分布;在分布区域方面分析了重大突发事件的总量分布、年度趋势、死亡率和亿元GDP死亡率的区域分布;(3)在研究全球重大突发事件的背景下,根据中国在GDP总量、人均GDP、城市化和工业化四个维度的发展预测值寻求一些与这些预测值相匹配的发达国家或典型发展中国家作为参照。通过分析得出:未来几年中国的重大突发事件以自然灾害和事故灾难为主,社会安全和公共卫生重大突发事件占的比率较低并呈间歇性越来越长但持续时间也愈来愈长的趋势,尤其是社会安全类事件。公共卫生重大突发事件不常发生,一旦发生每次死亡人数很大。最后,结合发达国家重大突发事件应对措施,依据中国未来可能发生的重大突发事件性质从三个方面对中国各产业预防重大突发事件提出对策和建议,主要包括:建立对不可防、不可控的重大突发事件的预警和应急机制,增强对可防、可控的重大突发事件的监督和加强社会公众的危机意识及风险因素识别能力。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economic globalization, social instability factors increase gradually, which seriously affects the security of the country, society and ecological environment. The frequency and harm degree of all kinds of major emergencies are increasing year by year. Rapid economic development has led to increasing population mobility, making social security and industrial security issues more and more prominent. Haze is a phenomenon that has only existed in China in recent years, while Britain, France, Germany, and the United States, Japan and other leading industrialised countries have also happened in the past. Therefore, it can be said that the development of different economies in human society has both individuality and commonality. As the largest developing country in Asia and even in the world, if China is to achieve sustainable development, it must try its best to avoid the detours taken by developed countries or reference countries. They need to understand the major emergencies and emergency management measures for China to learn. Based on the EM-DAT database, this paper analyzes the occurrence rules of major emergencies in the world and the enlightenment to China from the major emergencies in developed countries or reference countries. The specific contents include: (1) the main data source of the major emergencies is the EM-DAT database. This paper introduces the EM-DAT database concisely, and explains the other data involved in the paper; (2) on the basis of obtaining the data, The regularity of 13445 major emergencies in the world was studied, mainly from the aspects of event types and distribution regions. In terms of the type of events, the total amount of major emergencies and the annual trend distribution are studied, and the distribution of the total amount of major emergencies and the annual trend are analyzed in the area of distribution. The regional distribution of mortality rate and mortality rate of 100 million yuan GDP; (3) in the context of the study of major global emergencies, according to China's gross domestic product, The development forecasts of the four dimensions of GDP per capita urbanization and industrialization seek some developed countries or typical developing countries that match these forecasts as a reference. Through analysis, it is concluded that the major emergencies in China in the next few years are mainly natural disasters and accidents, and the proportion of major emergencies in social security and public health is relatively low, and the proportion of major emergencies in social security and public health is becoming longer and longer intermittently, but the duration is also getting longer and longer. Especially social security events. Major public health emergencies do not occur frequently, and the number of deaths per occurrence is very large. Finally, according to the nature of major emergencies that may occur in China in the light of the major emergency response measures in developed countries, the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions on how to prevent major emergencies in China's industries from three aspects. It mainly includes: establishing early warning and emergency mechanism for uncontrollable and uncontrollable major emergencies, strengthening the supervision of preventable and controllable major emergencies and strengthening the public's awareness of crisis and the ability to identify risk factors.
【学位授予单位】：太原科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D035

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