政府调控对华北平原农户抗旱行为的影响及效应
发布时间：2018-09-11 13:13
【摘要】：气候变化背景下干旱等极端天气事件频发给农业生产带来巨大挑战,明确农户是否采取相关应对措施及政府对其采取措施的影响,是进一步完善相关政策和引导农户增强自身响应能力建设的基础和关键。以华北平原为例,基于农户问卷调查数据,运用计量经济学方法,分析气候变化导致干旱频发背景下微观农户的响应行为,评估政府预警和政策支持是否影响农户响应行为以及其他因素如何影响其响应行为。结果表明:(1)农户响应干旱态度积极,随干旱程度加深,农户选择采取响应措施的可能性增大。(2)政府调控影响农户响应行为,但仅部分调控手段效果显著。政府提供预警信息能增加农户采取响应措施的可能性,然而只有当灾前及灾中、灾后同时预警时效果才显著;电视是目前最主要的预警媒介,但其并不显著改变农户响应行为,通过两种及以上形式的媒介传播预警信息效果最显著。此外,政府(尤其是乡镇及村级机构)的政策支持对农户旱灾响应行为有一定影响,但其效果在灾害年不如正常年明显;资金补贴的调控手段能明显促进农户采取响应措施的积极性,但绝大多数农户未获得任何机构支持。政府调控的结构及力度均有待提升及完善。(3)不同特质农户的响应行为不同。灌区内的农户,家庭耕地细碎度越小的农户,家庭农业成员越多的农户,更倾向于采取响应措施。本研究可为干旱化背景下制定相关调控政策提供科学参考。
[Abstract]:The frequent occurrence of extreme weather events such as drought in the context of climate change poses great challenges to agricultural production. It is clear whether farmers will take relevant measures and the impact of government measures on them. It is the foundation and key to further improve the relevant policies and guide farmers to enhance their own response capacity. Taking the North China Plain as an example, based on the questionnaire survey data of farmers, the response behavior of micro-farmers under the background of frequent drought caused by climate change is analyzed by econometric method. To assess whether government early warning and policy support affect farmers' response behavior and how other factors affect their response behavior. The results showed that: (1) the farmers' attitude to drought was positive, and with the deepening of drought, the possibility of farmers choosing to take response measures was increased. (2) the government regulation affected the farmers' response behavior, but only some of the measures had significant effects. The government can provide early warning information to increase the possibility of farmers taking response measures. However, the effect of early warning is significant only before and during the disaster, but television is the most important early warning medium, but it does not significantly change the farmers' response behavior. Through two or more forms of media dissemination of early warning information the most significant effect. In addition, the policy support of the government (especially the township and village institutions) has a certain impact on the drought response behavior of farmers, but its effect is not as obvious in the disaster year as in the normal year. The regulation and control means of capital subsidy can obviously promote the enthusiasm of farmers to take response measures, but most farmers do not get any institutional support. The structure and intensity of government regulation need to be improved and improved. (3) the response behavior of farmers with different characteristics is different. The farmers in irrigation district, the smaller the family cultivated land, the more the family agricultural members, the more inclined to take response measures. This study can provide a scientific reference for the establishment of relevant control policies under the background of drought.
【作者单位】： 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室;中国科学院大学资源与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41430636,41590841) 国家重点基础研究发展规划(973计划)~~
【分类号】：D630;S423
[Abstract]:The frequent occurrence of extreme weather events such as drought in the context of climate change poses great challenges to agricultural production. It is clear whether farmers will take relevant measures and the impact of government measures on them. It is the foundation and key to further improve the relevant policies and guide farmers to enhance their own response capacity. Taking the North China Plain as an example, based on the questionnaire survey data of farmers, the response behavior of micro-farmers under the background of frequent drought caused by climate change is analyzed by econometric method. To assess whether government early warning and policy support affect farmers' response behavior and how other factors affect their response behavior. The results showed that: (1) the farmers' attitude to drought was positive, and with the deepening of drought, the possibility of farmers choosing to take response measures was increased. (2) the government regulation affected the farmers' response behavior, but only some of the measures had significant effects. The government can provide early warning information to increase the possibility of farmers taking response measures. However, the effect of early warning is significant only before and during the disaster, but television is the most important early warning medium, but it does not significantly change the farmers' response behavior. Through two or more forms of media dissemination of early warning information the most significant effect. In addition, the policy support of the government (especially the township and village institutions) has a certain impact on the drought response behavior of farmers, but its effect is not as obvious in the disaster year as in the normal year. The regulation and control means of capital subsidy can obviously promote the enthusiasm of farmers to take response measures, but most farmers do not get any institutional support. The structure and intensity of government regulation need to be improved and improved. (3) the response behavior of farmers with different characteristics is different. The farmers in irrigation district, the smaller the family cultivated land, the more the family agricultural members, the more inclined to take response measures. This study can provide a scientific reference for the establishment of relevant control policies under the background of drought.
【作者单位】： 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室;中国科学院大学资源与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41430636,41590841) 国家重点基础研究发展规划(973计划)~~
【分类号】：D630;S423
【相似文献】
相关期刊论文 前2条
1 徐阳粼;罗精明;茹阁英;冯继文;;PDMAEMA多重环境响应行为的NMR研究[J];波谱学杂志;2012年02期
2 ;[J];;年期
相关会议论文 前5条
1 陈东初;赖阅腾;郑家q，
本文编号：2236782
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/guanlilunwen/zhengwuguanli/2236782.html
