情景应对型高校社会安全突发事件应急准备体系构建研究

发布时间：2018-11-16 13:14

【摘要】：高校应急管理是整个社会危机管理系统的重要组成部分,已成为现代大学治理的一项重要内容。近年来,高校社会安全突发事件频发,具有难以预见(随机性、离散性、小概率)、处置紧迫、危害严重和广泛影响等特点,对高校正常教学生活秩序、师生安全及社会稳定等造成不良影响。如何有效应对高校社会安全突发事件,已越来越引起高校管理人员及学者们的广泛关注。本文以高校社会安全突发事件为研究对象,运用情景-应对理论,研究应急准备体系构建问题。在系统梳理国内外研究现状基础上,科学界定了高校社会安全突发事件的内涵,分析其典型特征;应用情景理论构建高校社会安全突发事件的整体理论模型、关键情景要素识别与提取理论模型、情景演化理论模型、应急准备体系理论模型;运用AHP法、熵权法、因子-主成分分析法,构建高校社会安全突发事件关键情景要素识别和提取模型;通过系统动力学方法构建高校社会安全突发事件演化模型;最后,通过对已发生的多个高校社会安全突发事件进行回溯性案例研究,提出了情景应对型应急准备体系基本构成及高校社会安全突发事件应急准备体系的构建策略。研究具有一定的创新性:第一,研究视角和思路的创新:以“情景”为视角,提出了高校社会安全突发事件应急准备体系的理论模型和研究思路,并以致灾体、承灾体、抗灾体为主体,构建了情景-应对型高校社会安全突发事件应急准备体系,相应提出了高校构建社会安全突发事件应急准备体系的策略。第二,研究关键情景要素提取的方法与结果创新:利用致灾体、承灾体、抗灾体“三体”模式,构建了高校社会安全突发事件关键情景要素提取模型,通过多种方法提取关键情景要素,结果发现关键情景要素相对集中在致灾体和承灾体。第三,研究多情景视角演化研判的模式创新:基于情景理论,深入分析了高校社会安全突发事件情景演化的内在机理;以某群体冲突为例应用系统动力学方法构建情景演化模型,对多情景演化路径进行算例仿真。相关研究成果为高校有效地进行情景-应对社会安全突发事件提供指导与借鉴。
[Abstract]:University emergency management is an important part of the whole social crisis management system, and has become an important content of modern university governance. In recent years, social security emergencies in colleges and universities occur frequently, with the characteristics of unpredictable (randomness, discreteness, small probability), urgent disposal, serious harm and extensive impact on the normal teaching and living order of colleges and universities. Safety of teachers and students and social stability and other adverse effects. How to effectively deal with social security emergencies in colleges and universities has attracted more and more attention from university administrators and scholars. This paper studies the construction of emergency preparedness system by using the situational-coping theory with the social security emergencies in colleges and universities as the research object. On the basis of systematically combing the current research situation at home and abroad, this paper scientifically defines the connotation of social security emergencies in colleges and universities, and analyzes its typical characteristics. The whole theoretical model of social security emergencies in colleges and universities, the identification and extraction model of key scene elements, the theoretical model of scenario evolution and the theoretical model of emergency preparedness system are constructed by using scenario theory. Using AHP method, entropy weight method and factor-principal component analysis method, the identification and extraction model of key situational elements of social security emergencies in colleges and universities is constructed, and the evolution model of social security emergencies in colleges and universities is constructed by system dynamics method. Finally, based on the retrospective case study of social security emergencies in colleges and universities, the basic structure of situational emergency preparedness system and the construction strategy of emergency preparedness system for social security emergencies in colleges and universities are put forward. The research has certain innovation: first, the innovation of research perspective and thinking: from the perspective of "scene", the theoretical model and research ideas of emergency preparedness system of social security emergency in colleges and universities are put forward, and the disaster body, disaster body, This paper constructs a situation-response emergency preparedness system for social security emergencies in colleges and universities, and puts forward corresponding strategies for the construction of emergency preparedness system for social security emergencies in colleges and universities. Secondly, the paper studies the methods and results of the extraction of key scene elements: by using the "three-body" model of disaster-causing, disaster-bearing and disaster-resistant, a model of extracting key situational elements of social security emergencies in colleges and universities is constructed. The key scenario elements are extracted by many methods, and the results show that the key scenario elements are relatively concentrated in the disaster-causing and disaster-bearing elements. Thirdly, it studies the model innovation of multi-scenario perspective: based on scenario theory, it deeply analyzes the internal mechanism of the evolution of social security emergencies in colleges and universities; Taking a group conflict as an example, the scenario evolution model is constructed by using system dynamics method, and the multi-scenario evolution path is simulated by a numerical example. The relevant research results provide guidance and reference for colleges and universities to effectively carry out situational-response to social security emergencies.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学技术大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D63

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