基于路径连通可靠度的应急物资调度研究

发布时间：2019-03-20 17:01

【摘要】：面对难以避免的自然灾害等大规模突发事件,在完善应急预防体系的同时,更应不断提高灾后应急管理水平,加强对应急管理系统中应急物流系统,尤其是应急物资调度问题的研究。如何快速、准确、安全可靠的将应急物资运送到受灾地点,对于提高应急救援水平和救援效率,最大程度拯救人民的生命与财产安全具有重要意义。本文以提高应急物资调度的需求满足率为出发点,分别在确定与不确定因素下,建立了基于路径连通可靠度的多目标模型,通过求解模型优先选择连通可靠度高的路径运输应急物资,在提高应急物资调度保障能力的同时,降低了道路运输环境对应急救援人员与车辆的潜在威胁。首先,论文阐述了研究背景,基于应急物资调度研究现状,进一步指明本文的研究方向。介绍了应急物资调度相关理论,为后续研究奠定基础。其次,研究了确定性环境下,在应急物资调度中期物资供应充足的情况下的应急物资调度问题。使用德尔菲法预测出各路段的连通可靠度,然后应用可能性GO法求得各路径的连通可靠度,以时效性和经济性为目标,引入惩罚系数,对该问题进行建模,运用主要目标法对模型求解。再次,考虑到不确定性因素对路网可靠度的影响,在不确定应急物资运输时间和单位物资运输成本的情况下,给出区间数和三角模糊数理论,建立了基于路径连通可靠度的多目标模型,然后用主要目标法对模型进行求解,最后通过案例与传统模型进行比较,验证了改进模型的优越性。研究结果表明,本文模型求得的应急方案选用的路径可靠度最高,并且当其中一条或几条路径遭到阻塞,能在应急成本不是过高的前提下更大的满足灾区需求。为了提升应急物资保障能力,本文研究了基于路径连通可靠度的多目标应急物资调度优化问题,为应急物资调度相关研究提供了新的思路和方法。同时,本文的研究还有助于决策者制定科学、高效的应急救援方案,对于提高应急物资调度水平和减少灾后损失也具有一定的实际指导意义。
[Abstract]:In the face of large-scale emergencies such as inevitable natural disasters, while perfecting the emergency prevention system, we should constantly improve the level of post-disaster emergency management and strengthen the emergency logistics system in the emergency management system. Especially the research of emergency material scheduling. How to quickly, accurately, safely and reliably deliver the emergency materials to the disaster site is of great significance for improving the level and efficiency of emergency rescue and saving the lives and property safety of the people to the maximum extent. In this paper, a multi-objective model based on path connectivity reliability is established in order to improve the demand satisfaction rate of emergency material scheduling, under the conditions of determination and uncertainty, respectively, a multi-objective model based on path-connectivity reliability is established in this paper. In order to improve the ability of emergency material dispatching and guarantee, the potential threat of road transportation environment to emergency rescue workers and vehicles is reduced by choosing the path transportation emergency supplies with high reliability in priority by solving the model. First, this paper describes the research background, based on the current situation of emergency material scheduling, further points out the research direction of this paper. This paper introduces the related theory of emergency material dispatching, and lays a foundation for the follow-up research. Secondly, the problem of emergency material scheduling is studied under the condition of sufficient material supply in the medium-term of emergency material scheduling in the deterministic environment. The connectivity reliability of each road section is predicted by Delphi method, and then the connectivity reliability of each path is obtained by the possibility GO method. The problem is modeled by introducing penalty coefficient, aiming at time-effectiveness and economy. The main objective method is used to solve the model. Thirdly, considering the influence of uncertain factors on the reliability of road network, the theory of interval number and triangular fuzzy number is given under the condition of uncertain emergency material transportation time and unit material transportation cost. A multi-objective model based on path connectivity reliability is established, and then the main objective method is used to solve the model. Finally, the superiority of the improved model is verified by comparing the case with the traditional model. The results show that the route reliability obtained by this model is the highest, and when one or more of the routes is blocked, the emergency cost is not too high to meet the needs of disaster areas. In order to improve the ability of emergency material support, this paper studies the optimization problem of multi-objective emergency material scheduling based on path connectivity reliability, which provides a new idea and method for the research of emergency material scheduling. At the same time, the research in this paper is also helpful to the decision-makers to make scientific and efficient emergency rescue plan, which is also of practical significance to improve the level of emergency material dispatching and reduce the post-disaster loss.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D63

【相似文献】