基于情景规划的世园会应急要素研究

发布时间：2019-06-28 12:45

【摘要】：供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程学科内容包括温湿度、清洁度及空气质量的控制,为实现此环境控制的采暖通风和空调系统,冷热源及能源转换设备,以及燃气、蒸汽与冷热水输送系统。该领域存在着各种各样的安全问题:如火灾、爆炸、有害物质泄漏等。此类事故多以突然发生为特征,其所产生的破坏常常是难以料想的。因此研究相关突发事件的属性,对突发事件类型、强度、时空特性等进行表征,可以为突发事件的情景构建奠定基础,为应对供热、供燃气、通风与空调领域发生的安全问题提供参考。本文以2014年青岛世界园艺博览会(以下简称“世园会”)为例,运用情景规划技术,通过对世园会主题馆发生火灾突发事件的情景构造,凝练突发事件应急要素,构建基于案例推理CBR应急管理机制,为相关应急预案的编制和应急演练提供支撑,从而实现对世园会突发事件的充分预防和有效控制。从突发事件的可能性、突发事件强度、承灾载体的脆弱性和应急资源四个维度对世园会建设和运营风险进行了评估。在传统风险评估方法的基础上增加了对承灾载体脆弱性和应急资源的考量,改进后的风险评估方法可以更加客观地反应风险状况。以燃气泄漏及其引发火灾为例对其进行表征,模拟了燃气泄漏与火灾的本质属性和扩散特性,实现突发事件不确定性向确定性的转化。采用突发事件情景规划的技术路线,构建世园会主题馆发生火灾的安全模型,明确了世园会区域应急的客观需求,对世园会应急要素进行了系统归纳,概括出了应急管理的方向、环节、条件、程序和效能要素,基于这些要素而制定的工程措施、技术措施和管理措施为编制世园会综合防灾与应急体系建设规划提供了依据,是区域重大工程建设和重大活动的应急体系建设的有益尝试。
[Abstract]:Heating, gas supply, ventilation and air conditioning engineering include temperature and humidity, cleanliness and air quality control. Heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems, cold and heat source and energy conversion equipment, as well as gas, steam and cold and hot water transportation systems to achieve this environmental control. There are a variety of safety problems in this field, such as fire, explosion, harmful material leakage and so on. Most of these accidents are characterized by sudden occurrence, and the damage caused by them is often unpredictable. Therefore, the study of the attributes of related emergencies and the characterization of emergency types, intensity, space-time characteristics and so on can lay a foundation for the construction of emergencies, and provide a reference for dealing with safety problems in the fields of heating, gas, ventilation and air conditioning. Taking the 2014 Qingdao World Horticultural Expo (hereinafter referred to as "Expo") as an example, this paper uses scenario planning technology to construct the scene of fire emergencies in the theme museum of the Expo, scenerates the emergency elements of emergencies, and constructs the emergency management mechanism based on case-based reasoning (CBR), so as to provide support for the compilation of emergency plans and emergency drills, so as to realize the full prevention and effective control of emergencies. The construction and operation risks of the Expo are evaluated from four dimensions: the possibility of emergencies, the intensity of emergencies, the vulnerability of disaster carriers and emergency resources. On the basis of the traditional risk assessment method, the vulnerability of the disaster carrier and emergency resources are considered, and the improved risk assessment method can reflect the risk situation more objectively. Taking gas leakage and fire as an example, the essential properties and diffusion characteristics of gas leakage and fire are simulated, and the transformation from uncertainty to certainty is realized. Using the technical route of emergency scenario planning, this paper constructs the safety model of fire in the theme museum of the Expo, clarifies the objective needs of the regional emergency of the Expo, systematically sums up the emergency elements of the Expo, summarizes the direction, links, conditions, procedures and efficiency elements of the emergency management, and the engineering measures based on these elements. The technical measures and management measures provide the basis for the preparation of the comprehensive disaster prevention and emergency system construction plan of the World Park, and are a useful attempt for the construction of regional major projects and major activities.
【学位授予单位】：青岛理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU984;D63

【参考文献】