管理者背景特征与上市公司盈余预测性质研究

发布时间：2018-03-13 20:00

本文选题：管理者背景特征　切入点：信息披露　出处：《西南财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国证券市场的逐步发展,由于信息不对称所引发的各种问题日益凸显,投资者对上市公司相关信息的需求和要求也越来越高；同时,由于“逆向选择”的存在,为了避免“劣币驱逐良币”的情况产生,降低公司的资本成本,管理者会披露各种内部信息,通过信号传递的方式来表明自身的经营和财务状况,传递有关公司真实价值的信息,降低投资者对公司未来预期的不确定性,进而有效地让投资者正确地对公司作出评价,将自身与其他公司进行甄别,从而进行正确的投资。信息披露作为投资者了解上市公司经营业绩和财务状况的基本途径,是有效减轻信息不对称的重要手段。而管理者盈余预测信息作为财务信息披露中非常重要的一种,不同于传统会计信息反应的是公司历史财务信息,其传递了上市公司未来的盈利情况,增强了信启、的决策有用性,是投资者进行合理决策的重要依据,在证券市场受到普遍重视,也受到了学术界的广泛关注。但现有关于盈余预测研究的文章较少,已有研究主要集中在盈余预测披露行为的动机、行为方式等,而鲜有研究关注盈余预测性质(如预测的频率、预测的精确度、预测导向以及预测偏差)这个重要的问题,降低了盈余预测作为投资者决策依据的有效性。此外,众多学者主要都从公司本身这个层面对盈余预测开展研究,鲜有学者在探讨盈余预测时考虑管理者个人特征因素,忽视了信息披露行为主体——上市公司管理者,其背景特征的异质性所可能带来的盈余预测信息差异,以及管理者特征对盈余预测性质或者特征的具体影响,可以说从管理者的个人背景特征来研究上市公司的盈余预测性质尚属空白领域。特别是由于我国上市公司盈余预测机制的建立起步较晚,直至2007年中国证监会正式颁布实施信息披露规范统领性文件《上市公司信息披露管理办法》,我国的业绩预告制度才日趋成熟。在我国特殊的业绩预告制度背景下,由于强制性业绩预告和非强制性业绩预告的同时存在,有些应该披露的公司没有进行披露,而有些非强制性公司却自愿地披露了盈余预测信息,公司在做出盈余预测信息披露时灵活性较大,具有不同的披露特征。对于盈余预测的内容和准确性等条款上,管理者都相应地进行了选择。管理层会适当调整盈余预测的时间、准确性和精确性。这些特征是分析盈余预测信息质量的重要依据。因而如何从更为微观的管理者个体层面和决策者层面研究我国上市公司盈余预测的性质,了解特定管理者的披露风格,对于投资者更为客观准确地进行决策以及提高资本市场的配置效率具有重要意义。因此,本文试图采用理论与实践相结合、规范和实证相结合的两种研究方法,通过阅读文献了解国内外学者关于管理者背景特征、盈余预测性质方面研究的现状及局限；基于委托代理理论、信息不对称理论、信号传递理论、高阶管理理论等理论基础,通过逻辑演绎、归纳推理等方法,深入分析管理者背景特征对上市公司盈余预测性质的影响机制和传导路径,为本文提出实证研究奠定坚实的理论基础和前提条件。然后阐述了我国业绩预告制度的演变历程和特点。接着主要从管理者的年龄、性别、学历、教育背景以及工作经历五个方面提出假设,运用描述性统计,相关性分析,多元有序变量模型(Ordered Logit Model)实证检验我国管理者的人口背景特征对上市公司盈余预测性质(预测的频率、预测的精确度、预测导向以及预测偏差)的影响,得出本文结论。最后再回到规范研究上提出“该怎样”的对策建议。本文选取了沪深两市发行A股的537家公司2008-2010年的数据作为研究样本,从管理者的性别、年龄、学历、教育背景以及工作经历五个方面,实证检验了管理者背景特征对上市公司盈余预测性质(预测的频率、预测的精确度、预测导向以及预测偏差)的影响。研究结果表明：管理者背景特征与上市公司盈余预测性质之间存在一定的相关性。具体而言,在影响上市公司盈余预测性质的管理者背景特征中,(1)管理者性别主要会对盈余预测的精确度和预测偏差产生影响,女性管理者预测的精确度比男性管理者相对更高,预测的偏差更低。(2)管理者年龄特征的影响最为显著,其与盈余预测的频率、精确性、预测导向均存在显著相关性,管理者年龄与预测频率和预测导向是显著负相关,管理者年龄越大,更为“保守悲观”,越不愿易进行盈余预测信息披露,越倾向于向下的预测引导；而与盈余预测的精确性显著正相关,年龄越大的管理者越倾向于选择更精确的点估计进行信息披露。(3)管理者的财务会计教育专业背景对盈余预测频率有一定影响,但是该影响并不显著；然而接受过财务会计教育的管理者由于专业性和对数据的敏感性,其盈余预测的偏差更低。(4)有过财务会计工作经历的管理者披露的盈余预测信息偏差也更小。(5)管理者的学历对盈余预测性质没有显著影响。本文的创新之处和研究贡献主要表现在以下三个方面：第一,本文创新性地从信息披露行为者的层面出发,即上市公司管理者背景特征的角度,全面系统地探讨了管理者的年龄、教育背景等个人特征变量与上市公司盈余预测信息性质之间的关系,填补了信息披露主体特征与信息披露特点之间相关性研究的空白,拓展了现有关于上市公司管理者背景特征、信息披露理论的研究视角和研究深度,为后续研究提供了一个新的思路和值得探索的新方向。第二,本文的实证研究发现,管理者背景特征的异质性确实会对上市公司的盈余预测性质产生影响,形成不同的盈余预测信息披露风格,进而可以在一定程度上解释我国证券市场中上市公司信息披露存在差异性的原因,揭示上市公司盈余预测性质中的个人特征因素,有利于为我国监管部门完善业绩预告制度、加强制定投资者保护相关的政策提供依据和思路。第三,通过对管理者背景特征与上市公司盈余预测性质之间关系的研究,有助于投资者识别不同特征管理者的信息披露风格,更为客观科学地评价相应管理者所选择披露的信息,有利于降低投资者和公司管理者之间信息不对称的程度,避免公司报表公布日股价的大幅波动,在一定程度上提高我国投资者分析决策的准确性,进而提高我国证券市场的投资效率和资本市场的配置效率。
[Abstract]:With the gradual development of China's securities market, due to various problems caused by information asymmetry has become increasingly prominent, the investor needs and requirements of the relevant information of listed companies is more and more high; at the same time, because of "adverse selection", in order to avoid the "bad money drives out good money" situation, reduce the cost of capital. Managers will disclose internal information, through a signal transmission way to show that their business and financial status, to transfer the real value of the company information, investors in the company reduce the uncertainty of future expectations, and effectively allow investors to correctly evaluate the company itself with other companies to identify, thus the correct the investment information disclosure as the basic way to understand investors business performance and financial situation of the listed companies is an important means to reduce the information asymmetry. Management earnings forecast information as a very important financial information disclosure of accounting information is different from the traditional reaction is the company of historical financial information, the transfer of listed company's future earnings, enhanced information, decision usefulness, is an important basis for investors to make reasonable decisions, pay attention to in the securities market also, received wide attention in academic circles. But the existing research on the earnings forecast of the article less, the research mainly concentrates in the earnings forecast disclosure behavior motivation, behavior, and little is known about the earnings forecast properties (such as prediction accuracy, prediction of frequency, orientation and prediction error) of this important problem that reduces the earnings forecast effectiveness as investors decision-making. In addition, many scholars mainly from the company itself in earnings forecast research, few studies Considering the management factors of personal characteristics on earnings forecast, ignored the information disclosure agents, managers of listed companies, the information may be caused by differences in earnings forecast heterogeneity of its background characteristics, and the specific effect of the management features and quality or characteristics on earnings forecast, it can be said that from the personal background characteristics of managers of earnings forecast property of listed companies is still a blank field.
Especially due to the earnings of Listed Companies in China to establish the prediction mechanism of a late start, until 2007 China Commission officially promulgated regulations on information disclosure and document "measures on the administration of information disclosure of Listed Companies in China, the performance forecast system is becoming more and more mature. In the background of China's special notice system of the performance, at the same time, due to the presence of mandatory performance notice and non mandatory performance forecast, the company should disclose some without disclosure, and some non mandatory companies have voluntarily disclosed earnings forecast information, the company in the information disclosure of earnings forecast disclosure flexibility, has different characteristics. For the content and accuracy of earnings forecasts and other terms, managers are accordingly for the choice. The management will adjust the earnings forecast time, accuracy and precision. These characteristics are analysis of earnings forecast information quality An important basis for the volume. So how to from more microcosmic management earnings of individual level and decision-making of Chinese listed company level and predict the nature, understanding specific disclosure management style for investors is more objective and accurate decision and has important significance in improving the capital market allocation efficiency.
Therefore, this paper attempts to use a combination of theory and practice, two kinds of normative and positive research methods, understand the domestic and foreign scholars on the managerial background characteristics through reading literature, the status and limitations of earnings forecast properties research; based on the principal-agent theory, asymmetric information theory, signal transmission theory, high order management theory the basis, through logical deduction, reasoning and other methods, in-depth analysis of influence mechanism and conduction path of nature of the managerial background characteristics of the listed companies' earnings forecast, to lay a solid theoretical foundation and prerequisite for empirical research in this paper. And then describes the evolution and characteristics of the system in our country. Then the main performance notice from managers age, gender, education, educational background and work experience five aspects put forward the hypothesis by using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, multivariate ordinal variable model Type (Ordered Logit Model) empirical test of population background characteristics of Chinese managers of the listed company earnings forecast properties (prediction frequency, accuracy, prediction of orientation and prediction error) effect, the thesis draws a conclusion. The final suggestions back to normative research and put forward the "how to".
This paper selects 537 companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen two city issued A shares 2008-2010 years of data as the research sample, from the manager's gender, age, education, educational background and work experience five aspects, an empirical test of managers'background characteristics prediction of properties of the listed company's earnings forecast (frequency, accuracy, predictive guidance and the prediction error). The results show that the influence of management earnings background characteristics and prediction of listed companies there is a certain correlation between properties. Specifically, the influence of earnings forecast of managers'background characteristics in nature, (1) management sex will affect the earnings forecast accuracy and prediction error, female managers forecast accuracy were relatively higher, lower deviation prediction. (2) the impact of managerial characteristics of age is the most significant, and the prediction of surplus frequency, precision Indeed, there was a significant correlation between prediction guidance, management and prediction of age frequency and predictors of orientation is negatively related to the management of older, more conservative, more easily than pessimistic earnings forecast information disclosure, more inclined to downward prediction guidance; significant positive correlation and accuracy of prediction and surplus the older managers are more likely to choose a more accurate estimate of the information disclosure. (3) the background of professional accounting education managers have a certain influence on the earnings forecast frequency, but the effect is not significant; however, received financial accounting education managers because of speciality and sensitivity to data. The deviation of lower earnings forecast. (4) there have been financial accounting work experience management information disclosure of earnings forecast deviation is smaller. (5) degree of the managers on earnings forecast properties had no significant effect.
The innovation and research contribution of this paper are mainly shown in the following three aspects:
First, this paper creatively from the perspective of information disclosure behavior of listed companies management background characteristics perspective, systematically discusses the manager's age, relationship between earnings information nature of educational background, personal characteristic variables and prediction of listed companies, to fill the gaps in the study of the correlation between information disclosure and the characteristic of the subject of information disclosure, to expand the existing listed companies on the managerial background characteristics, information disclosure theory research perspective and research depth, provides a new idea and worth exploring new directions for future research.
Second, the empirical study found that the heterogeneity of managers'background characteristics does affect the listed company's earnings forecast, the formation of different styles of the earnings forecast information disclosure, and can to some extent explain China's stock market information disclosure of Listed Companies in the reason of the difference, reveal the listed company earnings prediction the characteristic factors in nature, is conducive to China's regulatory authorities to improve the performance forecast system, strengthen the protection of investors making relevant policy basis and ideas.
Third, through the study of the nature of the relationship between the earnings management background characteristics and prediction of listed companies, information disclosure style will help investors identify different characteristics of managers, more objective and scientific evaluation of the corresponding managers choose to disclose the information, the information asymmetry between investors and companies to reduce the management level, to avoid the company announced on stock price volatility statements, improve our investors to analyze the accuracy of decision-making in a certain extent, and improve the investment efficiency of China's securities market and the capital market allocation efficiency.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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