分析师推荐理由、分析师声誉与投资者的投资判断

发布时间：2018-05-05 11:10

本文选题：分析师推荐理由 + 分析师声誉　；参考：《南开大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：本文运用社会心理学领域的说服理论,研究证券分析师推荐理由的充分性和分析师声誉两个因素对个体投资者判断和决策的影响,并采用实验研究方法,检验了证券分析师推荐理由与声誉如何影响个体投资者的投资者判断和决策。本文共分为六章。第一章为引言,主要内容为研究动因、研究问题,研究意义、研究框架、研究方法和研究创新；第二章为文献综述,总结了国内外目前关于证券分析师推荐理由和声誉等文献的研究结论和局限性；第三章为证券分析师推荐理由、声誉对投资者判断影响的理论分析,在相关理论分析的基础上,提出了本文的研究假设；第四章为实验设计,详细的介绍了本文自变量和因变量的操控及设计,以及实验被试的选择和实验过程；第五章为证券分析师推荐理由与声誉对投资者判断和决策影响的实验结果分析和评价；第六章为本文的研究结论及未来研究方向。本文的主要结论： 1.理论分析表明,资本市场上的个体投资者在投资决策时,证券分析师推荐购买股票理由的充分性会影响个体投资者购买股票的投资判断和决策。证券分析师的推荐理由越充分,个体投资者感知的说服力越强,也就更容易投资；同时,证券分析师声誉影响个体投资者对推荐信息可靠性和信任度的感知,进而影响了个体投资者的判断和决策。此外,证券分析师的推荐理由对个体投资者判断和决策的影响依赖于分析师的声誉。 2.实验结果表明,证券分析师推荐理由影响了个体投资者的投资判断。与证券分析师推荐理由较弱相比,在证券分析师推荐理由较强的情况下,个体投资者对公司股票价格上涨潜力和投资吸引力的判断会更高。 3.实验结果表明,证券分析师声誉影响了个体投资者的投资判断。与证券分析师声誉一般的相比,当证券分析师声誉较高时,投资者对公司股价上涨潜力和投资吸引力的判断会更高。 4.实验结果表明,证券分析师推荐理由和声誉会共同影响投资者判断,即证券分析师声誉调节了分析师推荐理由充分性对投资者投资判断和决策的影响。证券分析师声誉较高时,投资者会更多的关注分析师推荐理由的差异,在推荐理由较强的情况下,投资者判断的股价上涨潜力和投资吸引力更高；而当证券分析师声誉一般时,推荐理由的充分性对投资者判断的股价上涨潜力和投资吸引力没有产生显著的影响。 5.实验结果表明,投资者对分析师信任度的感知部分中介了证券分析师声誉对投资者判断和决策的影响；投资者对该公司未来盈利潜力的感知部分中介了分析师信任度对未来盈利潜力判断的影响；投资者对该公司未来股价上涨潜力的感知部分中介了公司盈利潜力对投资吸引力判断的影响。
[Abstract]:Based on the theory of persuasion in the field of social psychology, this paper studies the influence of two factors, the adequacy of recommended reasons and the reputation of analysts, on the judgment and decision of individual investors, and adopts the experimental research method. This paper examines how the recommended reasons and reputation of securities analysts affect individual investors' judgment and decision. This paper is divided into six chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, the main content is the research motivation, the research question, the research significance, the research frame, the research method and the research innovation, the second chapter is the literature review. The conclusions and limitations of the domestic and foreign literatures on securities analysts' recommendation reasons and reputation are summarized. The third chapter is the theoretical analysis of the influence of reputation on investors' judgment, based on the relevant theoretical analysis, the third chapter is the theoretical analysis of the influence of reputation on investors' judgment. The fourth chapter is the experimental design, including the control and design of the independent variables and dependent variables, and the selection and process of the experiment subjects. The fifth chapter is the analysis and evaluation of the influence of the reasons and reputation of securities analysts on investors' judgment and decision, and the sixth chapter is the conclusion of this paper and the direction of future research. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1. Theoretical analysis shows that when individual investors in capital market make investment decisions, the adequacy of stock analysts' reasons for recommending to buy stocks will affect the investment judgment and decision of individual investors. The stronger the recommendation reason of the securities analyst, the more persuasive the individual investor perceives, and the easier it is to invest. At the same time, the reputation of the securities analyst affects the individual investor's perception of the reliability and trust of the recommendation information. In turn, it affects the judgment and decision of individual investors. In addition, the impact of securities analysts' recommendations on individual investors' judgments and decisions depends on analysts' reputation. 2. The experimental results show that the recommended reasons of securities analysts affect the investment judgment of individual investors. Individual investors are more likely to judge the potential and attractiveness of a company's stock price rise than in the case of a stronger recommendation by securities analysts. 3. The experimental results show that the reputation of securities analysts affects the investment judgment of individual investors. When the reputation of securities analysts is relatively high, investors are more likely to judge the company's stock price upside potential and investment attractiveness than is generally the case with securities analysts. 4. The results show that both the recommendation and reputation of securities analysts affect investors' judgment, that is, the reputation of securities analysts adjusts the influence of the adequacy of recommendations on investors' investment judgment and decision. When the reputation of a securities analyst is high, investors will pay more attention to the difference of the reasons of recommendation. When the reason of recommendation is stronger, the investors will judge the stock price rising potential and investment attraction more; and when the reputation of the securities analyst is normal, The adequacy of the recommended reasons has no significant impact on the stock price appreciation potential and investment attractiveness judged by investors. 5. The experimental results show that investors' perception of analyst trust partly mediates the influence of securities analyst reputation on investors' judgment and decision. Investors' perception of the company's future earnings potential partly mediates the influence of the analyst's confidence on the future earnings potential judgment; Investors' perception of the company's future stock price growth potential partly mediates the impact of the company's earnings potential on investment attractiveness judgment.
【学位授予单位】：南开大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F831.5

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