我国A股上市公司定向增发的长期业绩分析

发布时间：2018-05-30 09:41

本文选题：定向增发 + 长期超常收益率　；参考：《东北财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国证券监督管理委员会于2006年5月8日公布落实了《上市公司证券发行管理办法》。该办法规定定向增发成为我国股权再融资的手段之一并为我国定向增发的发展奠定了基础。据wind统计,自2007年以来定向增发在我国证券市场上引发了一股融资热潮。定向增发不仅在证券市场受到广大融资者和投资者的青睐,而且国内外学术界也将其作为研究的焦点。通过梳理国内外文献发现,目前多数学者对定向增发大多聚焦于折价、盈余管理、公告效应和长短期业绩等领域的研究。并且经过实证研究发现,定向增发的折价率、正的公告效应以及短期业绩变好的现象几乎存在于所有国家的资本市场,并对这些现象进行了系统的理论阐述。然而,对于定向增发的长期业绩,诸多学者研究发现,不仅不同国家的资本市场得出的结果不相一致,甚至是同一国家的资本市场由于采用的技术方法不同,结果也有所差异,并且迄今为止没有一种理论可以完全解释这一“异象”。本文在借鉴国内外学者的研究理论和研究方法的基础上,结合中国证券市场的特点和定向增发的特征,对定向增发后上市公司的长期业绩变化主要从长期超常收益率和长期经营业绩两个角度进行研究分析。本文以2006年到2009年实施定向增发的符合样本筛选条件的268家上市公司为研究样本,运用定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,对定向增发后上市公司长期业绩的变化进行研究分析。为了研究我国A股市场上定向增发后上市公司的长期业绩,本文主要从以下三个方面进行了详细的论述和分析。首先,本文从理论方面论述定向增发,分别对国内外定向增发的研究进行了详细的理论阐述,尤其对具有中国特色的定向增发进行了系统论述。与美国证券市场的定向增发相比,我国的定向增发起步晚,并具有成本低、效率高和审批程序简单等优势,使得很多上市公司都热衷于通过定向增发来融资,但这也给定向增发市场带来一定的风险。随着中国证券市场的不断发展和完善,我们在借鉴其他资本市场优点的基础上,发展我国的定向增发。其次,运用事件研究法及日历时间法两种方法对长期超常收益率进行实证分析。通过建立模型研究发现,我国定向增发后的长期超常收益率显著为负,这表明定向增发后我国的上市公司的经营业绩不仅没有得到改善,反而恶化。随后为进一步增强对定向增发后上市公司的业绩分析,本文又对定向增发前后的会计指标进行分析,.同样也得出定向增发后我国上市公司的经营业绩不佳这一结论。最后,本文总结理论分析和实证研究结论,分别从机会窗口理论、投资者过度乐观理论和盈余管理理论等多方面进行了理论解释。并针对中国证券市场上定向增发后长期业绩不佳这一现象和定向增发中存在的问题提出政策建议。本文的创新之处在于使用Wruck, Hertzel和Smith发明的方法来估计调整的累积平均超常收益率(CARadj)。并且研究发现调整的累积平均超常收益率结果更为显著,说服力更强。从2006年5月8日管理办法的推行开始,我国的定向增发飞速发展,因此研究样本的显著增加,对本文研究定向增发后的长期业绩奠定了基础,结合国内外的研究理论,使得研究结果在一定程度上具有可靠性。但是本文只是从理论层面对影响定向增发长期业绩的因素进行了阐述,并未对影响因素进行实证研究。最后我们根据实证分析的结论,对中国证监会对定向增发的干预提出政策建议,有理有据并切实可行。
[Abstract]:The China Securities Regulatory Commission (China Securities Regulatory Commission) announced in May 8, 2006 the implementation of the measures for the management of securities issuance of listed companies. This method provides a basis for the development of our country's equity refinancing. According to wind statistics, it has been initiated in China's securities market since 2007. A new upsurge of financing. Private placement is not only favored by many investors and investors in the securities market, but also the academic circles at home and abroad regard it as the focus of research.
By combing the literature at home and abroad, most scholars focus on the research in the fields of discount, earnings management, announcement effect and long and short term performance. And through empirical research, it is found that the discount rate, the positive announcement effect and the better short-term performance of the directional addition are almost in the capital markets of all countries. However, many scholars have found that not only the results of the capital markets in different countries are not consistent, but also the results of the capital markets in the same country are different, and so far there is no one in the same country. Based on the study theory and research methods of domestic and foreign scholars, based on the characteristics of the Chinese securities market and the characteristics of the orientation addition, the long-term performance changes of the listed companies are mainly from the two angles of the long-term supernormal rate of return and the long-term operating performance. Research and analysis.
In this paper, 268 listed companies that carry out directional supplement from 2006 to 2009 are used as the research samples. The method of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis is used to study and analyze the changes of long-term performance of listed companies after the directional addition. In order to study the long-term growth of Listed Companies in the A stock market in China, the long term of the listed companies will be studied. Performance, this article mainly from the following three aspects are discussed and analyzed in detail.
First of all, this article discusses the directional addition from the theoretical aspect, and expounds the detailed theoretical exposition of orienteering research at home and abroad, especially the systematic exposition of the Orienteering with Chinese characteristics. Compared with the Orienteering of the US securities market, the directional addition of our country starts late, and has low cost, high efficiency and approval procedure. The advantages of simple and so on make many listed companies are keen on financing through directional increase, but it also brings some risks to the Orienteering market. With the continuous development and perfection of China's securities market, we develop our orientation on the basis of the advantages of other capital markets.
Secondly, we use two methods of event study and calendar time method to make an empirical analysis of the long-term abnormal return rate. Through the model study, it is found that the long-term supernormal rate of return in China is significantly negative, which indicates that the performance of the listed companies in China has not been improved but deteriorated after the directional addition. To further enhance the performance analysis of the listed companies after the directional addition, this paper also analyzes the accounting indicators before and after the directional addition, and also draws the conclusion that the operating performance of the listed companies in China after the directional addition is not good.
Finally, this paper summarizes the theoretical analysis and empirical research, and explains the theory of opportunity window, the theory of overoptimistic investors and the theory of earnings management, and puts forward some policy suggestions on the problem of long term performance and the problems in the orientation of China's securities market.
The innovation of this paper is to use the methods invented by Wruck, Hertzel and Smith to estimate the adjusted cumulative average supernormal rate of return (CARadj). And the study found that the cumulative average supernormal yield results are more significant and more convincing. Since the implementation of the management approach in May 8, 2006, the orientation of our country has developed rapidly. The significant increase of the research sample has laid a foundation for the long-term performance of this article, combining the domestic and foreign research theories, making the results reliable to a certain extent. However, this paper only describes the factors that affect the long-term performance of the targeted additional issuance from the theoretical level, and does not make an empirical research on the influencing factors. Finally, based on the conclusion of the empirical analysis, we put forward policy recommendations for the CSRC's intervention in private placement, which is well founded and feasible.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F832.51;F224

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