短期资本流动的影响因素及对货币政策调控的启示——基于金砖五国证券投资基金数据的实证分析

发布时间：2018-06-16 12:37

本文选题：股票 + 债券　；参考：《金融与经济》2015年08期

【摘要】：金融市场日益开放背景下,短期资本流动对国家金融安全的重要性不断提升。本文通过金砖五国1996~2014年EPFR1股票和债券资本流动月度面板数据的实证分析,发现短期股票和债券资本流动规模快速增长,且近年来更多受到全球因素的影响,需警惕极端变动及单方向持续变动。从全球因素看,全球经济金融形势变化对资本流动的影响日趋显著,从国内因素看,国内利率、股市收益率显著影响股票资本流动,国内经济增长情况显著影响债券资本流动,而本币汇率变动对股票和债券资本流动均影响显著。因此,我国应加强全球金融市场的短期资本流动监测,加强国际货币政策协调,加快推进国内利率、汇率等综合改革及金融市场的发展和深化,以应对短期资本流动可能带来的冲击。
[Abstract]:With the opening of financial market, the importance of short-term capital flow to national financial security is increasing. Based on the empirical analysis of monthly panel data of EPFR1 stock and bond capital flows in the BRICS countries from 1996 to 2014, this paper finds that the scale of short-term stock and bond capital flows increases rapidly, and in recent years it is more affected by global factors. Be on guard against extreme changes and constant single-direction movements. From the point of view of global factors, the change of global economic and financial situation has an increasingly significant impact on capital flows. From the domestic factors, domestic interest rates and stock market returns significantly affect stock capital flows, while domestic economic growth significantly affects bond capital flows. Changes in the exchange rate of the local currency have a significant impact on both equity and bond capital flows. Therefore, China should strengthen the monitoring of short-term capital flows in the global financial markets, strengthen the coordination of international monetary policies, accelerate the promotion of comprehensive reforms such as domestic interest rates and exchange rates, and the development and deepening of financial markets. To deal with the impact of short-term capital flows.
【作者单位】：中国人民银行南昌中心支行;
【分类号】：F831.51;F821.0

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