城投债信用风险探究
发布时间：2018-08-29 11:46
【摘要】：我国在改革开放后进入了快速城市化的时期，对于城市基础设施的投资不断扩大。我国自1994年起实行分税制改革，将中央与地方的税收划分，减少了地方的财政收入。城市基础设施建设庞大的资金需求与地方财政收入不足之间的矛盾，催生了地方政府寻求市场化融资的需求。而由地方政府成立的城投公司向市场发行的债券，就是城投债。而城投债所募集的资金一般运用于与政府公共职能相关的基础设施行业。金融危机之后，我国出台了四万亿经济刺激政策，刺激了地方政府的城市建设支出，同时城投债迎来了一个爆发式增长的时期。城投债的规模、范围的不断扩大，其信用风险也开始逐渐显现出来，引起了越来越多的投资人和公众的关注。 本文首先确定论文的选题背景和研究意义，对现有的对城投债信用风险的研究进行回顾和总结，整理论文的研究思路和框架，指出了论文的创新与不足。第二章中，将对城投债的产生背景和发展现状进行深入研究。从城市化和分税制改革两方面阐述城投债的产生背景，从三个阶段分析城投债的发展历程，从发行监管、发行主体、地域分布、信用资质和债券期限五方面剖析我国城投债的发展特点。在第三章中，将对信用风险基本理论及度量模型进行梳理。总结现有的信用风险理论，包括信用风险的含义和特征，，以及信用风险的来源。对信用风险度量模型进行分类和总结。在概述四大现代商用信用风险度量模型的基础上，对本文使用的KMV模型进行详述。第四章中，将以天津市城投债为例进行信用风险的实证研究。本文首先对KMV模型进行改造，使其能够运用于城投债的信用风险度量中。然后选取北方经济中心城市天津市的城投债进行实证研究。在第五章，文章将探讨城投债信用风险的控制对策。本章首先对国外的信用风险管理方法进行了分析，其中包括对美国市政债和日本地方公债的信用风险管理。并结合我国城投债的发展现状、信用风险状况等对我国城投债的发展提出政策性建议。
[Abstract]:China has entered a period of rapid urbanization after reform and opening up, and the investment in urban infrastructure is expanding. Since 1994, China has implemented the reform of the tax sharing system, dividing the central and local taxes and reducing the local fiscal revenue. The contradiction between the huge capital demand of urban infrastructure construction and the insufficiency of local fiscal revenue has given birth to the demand of local governments to seek market-oriented financing. And by the local government set up by the City Investment Corporation issued to the market bonds, is the City Investment debt. The capital raised by the city debt is generally used in the infrastructure industry related to the public functions of the government. After the financial crisis, our country issued 4 trillion economic stimulus policy, stimulated the local government's urban construction expenditure, and the city investment debt ushered in a period of explosive growth. With the expansion of the scale and scope of the city investment debt, its credit risk has gradually appeared, which has attracted more and more attention from investors and the public. This paper first determines the background and significance of the thesis, reviews and summarizes the existing research on the credit risk of city investment debt, collates the research ideas and framework, and points out the innovation and deficiency of the paper. In the second chapter, the background and present situation of city investment debt are studied. From the aspects of urbanization and tax distribution reform, this paper expounds the background of city investment debt, analyzes the development course of city investment debt from three stages, from issuing supervision, issuing main body, regional distribution. Credit qualification and bond maturity five aspects of China's city investment debt development characteristics. In the third chapter, the basic theory and measurement model of credit risk will be combed. Summarizes the existing credit risk theory, including the meaning and characteristics of credit risk, as well as the source of credit risk. The credit risk measurement model is classified and summarized. On the basis of summarizing four modern commercial credit risk measurement models, the KMV model used in this paper is described in detail. The fourth chapter will take Tianjin City Investment debt as an example to carry on the empirical study of credit risk. In this paper, the KMV model is first modified to be applied to the credit risk measurement of city debt. Then select the northern economic center of Tianjin City debt for empirical research. In the fifth chapter, the article will discuss the city investment debt credit risk control countermeasures. This chapter firstly analyzes the methods of credit risk management in foreign countries, including the credit risk management of American municipal debt and Japanese local public debt. Combined with the development of China's city investment debt, credit risk, and so on, put forward policy recommendations for the development of our country's city investment debt.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.24;F812.5
本文编号：2211103
[Abstract]:China has entered a period of rapid urbanization after reform and opening up, and the investment in urban infrastructure is expanding. Since 1994, China has implemented the reform of the tax sharing system, dividing the central and local taxes and reducing the local fiscal revenue. The contradiction between the huge capital demand of urban infrastructure construction and the insufficiency of local fiscal revenue has given birth to the demand of local governments to seek market-oriented financing. And by the local government set up by the City Investment Corporation issued to the market bonds, is the City Investment debt. The capital raised by the city debt is generally used in the infrastructure industry related to the public functions of the government. After the financial crisis, our country issued 4 trillion economic stimulus policy, stimulated the local government's urban construction expenditure, and the city investment debt ushered in a period of explosive growth. With the expansion of the scale and scope of the city investment debt, its credit risk has gradually appeared, which has attracted more and more attention from investors and the public. This paper first determines the background and significance of the thesis, reviews and summarizes the existing research on the credit risk of city investment debt, collates the research ideas and framework, and points out the innovation and deficiency of the paper. In the second chapter, the background and present situation of city investment debt are studied. From the aspects of urbanization and tax distribution reform, this paper expounds the background of city investment debt, analyzes the development course of city investment debt from three stages, from issuing supervision, issuing main body, regional distribution. Credit qualification and bond maturity five aspects of China's city investment debt development characteristics. In the third chapter, the basic theory and measurement model of credit risk will be combed. Summarizes the existing credit risk theory, including the meaning and characteristics of credit risk, as well as the source of credit risk. The credit risk measurement model is classified and summarized. On the basis of summarizing four modern commercial credit risk measurement models, the KMV model used in this paper is described in detail. The fourth chapter will take Tianjin City Investment debt as an example to carry on the empirical study of credit risk. In this paper, the KMV model is first modified to be applied to the credit risk measurement of city debt. Then select the northern economic center of Tianjin City debt for empirical research. In the fifth chapter, the article will discuss the city investment debt credit risk control countermeasures. This chapter firstly analyzes the methods of credit risk management in foreign countries, including the credit risk management of American municipal debt and Japanese local public debt. Combined with the development of China's city investment debt, credit risk, and so on, put forward policy recommendations for the development of our country's city investment debt.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.24;F812.5
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