地方债券发行影响因素的实证分析

发布时间：2018-09-18 12:16

【摘要】：为了解决城市化过程中地方政府面临的资金缺口和融资难问题,我国逐步放松了对地方政府举债的控制。2009年财政部开始代理发行地方债券,其后2011年经国务院批准,上海市、浙江省、广东省、深圳市为地方政府自行发债试点,这表明我国地方债券的发展进入新的阶段。在此背景下,探索我国地方债券的发行特点及影响地方债券发行的因素至关重要。本论文共分为五章,对地方债券的相关理论进行了介绍,并重点对地方债券的影响因素进行了实证分析。第一章,引言。主要介绍了本文的选题背景及选题意义,同时介绍了国内外地方债券的研究现状。第二章,地方债券的内涵与理论基础。主要是对地方债券的概念、特征进介绍。包括：公共产品理论、公债理论及财政分权理论。对地方债券内涵与理论基础的介绍,主要原因在于希望本论文的研究是充实而完整的。第三章,对国内外地方债券的发展进行了对比分析。分别从发行背景及历程、发行主体、投资者、债券类型、债券使用范围等几个方面展开,对分权制度下美国市政债券的发展情况、集权制度下日本地方公债的发展情况及尚处于起步阶段的我国地方债券的发展情况作了介绍。第四章,对地方债券发行影响因素进行实证分析。选取GDP、人均GDP、一般财政预算收入、一般财政预算支出、全社会固定资产投资和城镇失业人口共六个变量,用Eviews6.0计量软件,分别对2009年和2010年我国各省、自治区和直辖市地方债券的发行规模进行回归分析。结果显示,我国地方债券的发行同时考虑了公平与效率两个方面：一方面,我国从公平方面进行考虑,发债规模向中西部地区倾斜；另一方面,考虑了效率,支持一些财政收支状况良好的地区多发行地方债券,以保证地方债券能够到期还本付息,降低地方债券市场的风险。第五章,政策建设。从建立健全地方债券的法律法规、继续加大中西部地区发债的支持力度、促进地方债务显性化、完善地方债券的运行机制及加强地方债券的监管等五个方面提出建设。总之,本文力图从多个方面分析近三年我国发行的地方债券的特点,并且通过计量软件,对影响发债规模的因素进行分析,以期清楚地认识我国发行地方债券的特点,同时提出政策建议,希望有利于我国地方债券市场的良好有序发展。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the funding gap and financing difficulties faced by local governments in the process of urbanization, China has gradually relaxed its control over the borrowing of local governments. In 2009, the Ministry of Finance began to issue local bonds on an agency basis, and in 2011, Shanghai was approved by the State Council. Zhejiang Province, Guangdong Province, Shenzhen City for local governments to issue bonds pilot, indicating that the development of local bonds in China into a new stage. In this context, it is very important to explore the characteristics of local bond issuance and the factors affecting local bond issuance. This paper is divided into five chapters, the related theories of local bonds are introduced, and the influencing factors of local bonds are analyzed empirically. Chapter one, introduction. This paper mainly introduces the background and significance of this topic, and introduces the research status of local bonds at home and abroad. The second chapter, the connotation and theoretical basis of local bonds. It mainly introduces the concept and characteristics of local bonds. Including: public goods theory, public debt theory and fiscal decentralization theory. The main reason for the introduction of the connotation and theoretical basis of local bonds lies in the hope that the research in this paper is substantial and complete. The third chapter makes a comparative analysis of the development of local bonds at home and abroad. Starting from the background and history of the issue, the main body of the issue, the investors, the types of bonds, the scope of the use of bonds and so on, the development of the US municipal bonds under the decentralized system is discussed. This paper introduces the development of Japanese local public debt under the centralization system and the development of local bonds in China which is still in its infancy. The fourth chapter, the local bond issue influence factor carries on the empirical analysis. This paper selects six variables of GDP, per capita GDP, general budget income, general budget expenditure, total social fixed asset investment and urban unemployed population, and uses Eviews6.0 software to analyze the provinces of China in 2009 and 2010, respectively. The local bond issuance scale of autonomous region and municipality directly under the Central Government carries on regression analysis. The results show that both fairness and efficiency are considered in the issuance of local bonds in China. On the one hand, the scale of bond issuance in China is biased towards the central and western regions; on the other hand, efficiency is considered. To support more local bond issuance in areas with good fiscal balance to ensure that local bonds are able to mature and pay interest and to reduce the risk of local bond market. Chapter five, Policy Construction. This paper puts forward the construction from five aspects: establishing and perfecting the laws and regulations of local bonds, continuing to increase the support of issuing bonds in the central and western regions, promoting the dominance of local debt, perfecting the operating mechanism of local bonds and strengthening the supervision of local bonds. In short, this paper tries to analyze the characteristics of the local bonds issued in China in recent three years from many aspects, and through the measurement software, to analyze the factors that affect the scale of bond issuance, in order to clearly understand the characteristics of the local bonds issued in China. At the same time, some policy suggestions are put forward in the hope of favorable and orderly development of the local bond market in China.
【学位授予单位】：广西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F812.5;F224

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