中国国债规模的研究

发布时间：2018-09-18 15:23

【摘要】：国债是政府调节经济的一种工具，在现代经济发展中起着不可替代的作用，但是，由于国债利用不当引起的债务危机，给经济发展带来了极大的危害。中国在经济发展中也面临着债务规模越来越大的压力。因此，需要建立中国合理国债规模基准，寻求合理国债规模途径，从而确立中国合理国债的规模，通过合理国债规模发挥国债对经济发展的积极作用，并约束国债规模，避免国债规模过大而引起债务危机。一个国家的负债可分为主观负债和客观负债，，这两种负债诉求在现实经济生活中所发挥的作用和达到的目标是不同的，由此可以界定出负债率的经济意义。根据这一国债形成的机理，研究制约中国国债规模的相关因素，在此基础上分别分析了国债指标对国债规模的制约和国债结构对国债规模的制约；确立了中国合理国债规模的基准，建立起中国合理国债指标体系，并提出合理国债规模获取的途径，其中重点是利用SPSS统计软件，通过ARIMA方法与Expert Modeler方法做时间序列预测，根据赤字-债务动态模型和有效需求理论，并结合中国经济发展状况，建立起合理国债规模的指标体系。该体系对中国国内债务规模进行了具体的约束，同时也扩大了外债规模的范围，对中国国内债务规模的约束主要是根据中国经济发展状况计算出合理负债率、居民应债能力、合理赤字率和合理国债依存度指标，将国债规模控制在各合理指标的范围之内。从而实现了获取合理国债规模的目的。
[Abstract]:National debt is a tool for the government to regulate the economy and plays an irreplaceable role in the development of modern economy. However, due to the debt crisis caused by improper use of national debt, it brings great harm to the economic development. China is also facing growing pressure on the size of its debt in its economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a reasonable national debt scale standard in China, to seek a reasonable national debt scale approach, so as to establish the scale of China's reasonable national debt, to play a positive role in the economic development through the rational national debt scale, and to restrain the national debt scale. Avoid debt crisis caused by excessive size of national debt. The debt of a country can be divided into subjective debt and objective liability. The two kinds of debt demands play different roles and achieve different goals in real economic life, so the economic significance of debt ratio can be defined. According to the formation mechanism of this national debt, this paper studies the relevant factors that restrict the scale of China's national debt, and analyzes the restriction of the national debt index on the scale of the national debt and the restriction of the structure of the national debt on the scale of the national debt. This paper establishes the benchmark of the reasonable national debt scale in China, establishes the index system of the reasonable national debt in China, and puts forward the way to obtain the reasonable national debt scale. The emphasis is to make the time series prediction by using the SPSS statistical software, the ARIMA method and the Expert Modeler method. According to the dynamic model of deficit and debt and the theory of effective demand, and combined with the economic development of China, the index system of reasonable national debt scale is established. The system has concretely restricted the scale of China's domestic debt, and at the same time expanded the scope of the scale of foreign debt. The constraint on the scale of China's domestic debt is mainly to calculate the reasonable debt ratio and residents' debt capacity according to the state of China's economic development. The reasonable deficit rate and the reasonable national debt dependence index control the scale of the national debt within the range of each reasonable index. In order to achieve the goal of obtaining reasonable national debt scale.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F812.5

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