发达经济体公共债务适度规模争议及其启示

发布时间：2018-11-10 10:49

【摘要】：在近年发达经济体公共债务规模达到二战后最高水平的背景下,公共债务适度规模成为学术界与政策研究领域的热点问题。理论上,公共债务规模扩张对经济的影响是正是负依具体情景而定,实证研究中也没有一致的证据支持公共债务规模与后续经济增长无关或者有关。虽然对公共债务规模是否存在经济意义上的适度水平存疑,但仍可从不同角度探讨公共债务规模上升的相伴风险及可持续性问题。当前发达经济体高额公共债务的风险不是出现偿付危机的风险,而是相关的宏观经济和金融市场风险。发达经济体公共债务规模能否缩减,将取决于能否利用"增长率-利率"差值的自动减债效果所创造的时间和空间,实施增长友好和财政友好的结构改革。出于审慎目的设定公共债务率上限对于稳定预期有积极作用,但与此相伴的考核透明度是决定政策可信与否更为重要的因素。本文最后总结了该问题对于中国的政策启示。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the scale of public debt in developed economies has reached the highest level after World War II, and the appropriate scale of public debt has become a hot issue in the field of academic and policy research. Theoretically, the impact of public debt scale expansion on the economy is just negative depending on the specific situation, and there is no consistent evidence in empirical research to support that the scale of public debt has nothing to do with or is related to subsequent economic growth. Although it is doubtful whether there is a moderate level of public debt in the economic sense, it is still possible to discuss the associated risks and sustainability of the increase of public debt from different angles. The current risk of high public debt in advanced economies is not the risk of a solvency crisis, but the associated macroeconomic and financial market risks. Whether the size of public debt in advanced economies shrinks will depend on the time and space created by the automatic debt-reduction effect of the "growth-interest rate" margin to implement growth-friendly and fiscal-friendly structural reforms. Setting the public debt ceiling for prudential purposes has a positive effect on stabilizing expectations, but the accompanying transparency of assessments is a more important factor in determining whether policies are credible or not. Finally, this paper summarizes the policy implications of this issue for China.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“全球经济治理结构变化与我国应对战略研究”(14ZDA081)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F811.5

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