互联网时代下高校网络舆情研判研究

发布时间：2018-01-23 03:29

本文关键词： 高校网络舆情等级划分模型预测模型研判　出处：《昆明理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着网络技术及其支撑产业的飞速发展,互联网已经成为人们日常购物、娱乐和信息工沟通的重要渠道。由于互联网信息传播快、覆盖广、影响大,互联网在给人们的信息沟通带来便捷的同时,也会产生的一些不和谐的社会舆论,给社会发展和政治经济稳定带来一定的、甚至有时是至关重要的负面影响。另外,随着大多数高校逐渐实现校园网络的全覆盖,高校网络舆情已经成为影响大学生群体性事件发生和演变的重要因素,受到政府部门和各界专家学者们越来越多的关注。加强高校网络舆情信息的监测、收集、研判、引导和处理能力,建立完善的网络舆情的引导机制,对于创造良好的校园网环境和舆论氛围,维护校园的安全稳定具有十分重要的意义,是高校网络舆情管理的重要内容,也是新时期高校网络舆情建设所面临的重要课题。本文针对高校网络舆情监控管理中的舆情研判难点问题进行研究。首先通过研究大量高校网络舆情的特点,阐述了高校网络舆情的特点和爆发的规律,以K高校的网络舆情环境和特点为例,总结了影响高校网络舆情发展的关键因素,并以主要相关的12个定量和定性的影响因子作为评判指标,运用层次分析法,通过权重计算和加权算法将网络舆情划分为A、B、C、D四个等级,建立网络舆情等级划分模型;然后,运用基于逻辑斯蒂(Logistic)模型的数学预测模型,借助MATLAB软件通过对K高校舆情事件的历史数据进行处理,建立出不同等级的网络舆情发展预测模型,为网络舆情的研判提供参考依据,判定所发现舆情所处的发展时期及发展趋势。最后,对K高校现有的工作处理流程做出具体的改进建议,明确各环节的工作职能,并对发现舆情的等级与时期的判定,提出明确的处理建议方案。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of network technology and its supporting industry, the Internet has become an important channel of daily shopping, entertainment and information communication. The Internet not only brings convenience to people's information communication, but also produces some disharmonious social public opinion, which brings about certain degree of social development and political and economic stability. In addition, with most colleges and universities gradually realize the full coverage of campus network, university network public opinion has become an important factor affecting the occurrence and evolution of college students' mass events. By the government departments and experts and scholars from all walks of life more and more attention. Strengthen the monitoring of university network public opinion information collection research guidance and processing ability to establish a sound network public opinion guidance mechanism. For the creation of a good campus network environment and public opinion atmosphere, the maintenance of campus security and stability has a very important significance, is an important content of university network public opinion management. It is also an important subject in the construction of university network public opinion in the new era. This paper studies the difficult problems of network public opinion monitoring and management in colleges and universities. Firstly, it studies the characteristics of a large number of university network public opinion. This paper expounds the characteristics and law of network public opinion in colleges and universities, and summarizes the key factors that affect the development of network public opinion in colleges and universities, taking the environment and characteristics of network public opinion in K colleges and universities as an example. And the main related 12 quantitative and qualitative impact factors as evaluation indicators, using the Analytic hierarchy process, through the weight calculation and weighting algorithm to divide the network public opinion into four levels of Agni Bang Cong D. Establish the network public opinion classification model; Then, the mathematical prediction model based on logistic model is used, and the historical data of public opinion events in K colleges and universities are processed with the help of MATLAB software. Establish different levels of network public opinion development prediction model, for the study of network public opinion to provide a reference basis, determine the public opinion found in the development period and development trend. Finally. This paper makes concrete improvement suggestions on the existing work processing flow of K colleges and universities, clarifies the working functions of each link, and puts forward a clear plan to deal with the level and period of finding public opinion.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：G647

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