大学生非自杀性自伤的早期风险评估模型研究

发布时间：2018-03-12 07:31

本文选题：大学生　切入点：非自杀性自伤　出处：《现代预防医学》2017年14期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：目的尝试建立大学生非自杀性自伤(NSSI)的早期风险评估模型。方法首先通过现况调查,获得大学生NSSI的分布特征,然后基于Logistic回归对危险因素进行筛选,最后采用risk score法构建大学生NSSI的早期风险评估模型。通过ROC曲线下面积和阳性预测值等指标考核模型的预测效果。结果在3 854名大学生中检出具有NSSI行为393人,检出率为10.2%。Logistic回归分析显示,"童年期虐待"(OR=3.493)、"小的过失父母也惩罚我"(OR=1.995)、"在别人面前唠叨我做过的事,使我感到难堪"(OR=1.835)、"非亲生母亲"(哑变量P=0.009)、"遭父母打骂"(OR=1.651)、"当众丢面子"(OR=1.602)、"经常有想摔东西的冲动"(OR=1.601)、"考试失败成绩不理想"(OR=1.553)、"常常感到紧张"(OR=1.527)等为大学生NSSI的主要危险因素。通过风险评分模型计算ROC曲线下的面积为0.738,95%CI(0.707,0.770)。在70%样本中当切点选择22.8时灵敏度为72.3%,特异度为64.8%,阳性预测值为19.0%。结论基于risk score的早期风险评估模型对大学生非自杀性自伤具有一定的预测效果。
[Abstract]:Objective to establish an early risk assessment model for college students with non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI). Methods the distribution of NSSI in college students was obtained through a current survey, and then the risk factors were screened based on Logistic regression. Finally, the risk score method was used to construct the early risk assessment model of NSSI for college students. The area under the ROC curve and the positive predictive value were used to evaluate the predictive effect of the model. Results 393 individuals with NSSI were detected in 3 854 college students. Logistic regression analysis showed that "childhood abuse" was 3.493, "small negligent parents punished me" and "nagging me about what I had done" in front of others. "making me feel embarrassed" (dummy variable P0. 009), "being scolded by parents", "losing face in public" and "losing face in public" were the main risk factors for college students' NSSI, such as "often having the urge to fall things" or "wanting to throw things" or 1.601, "failing in the examination" or 1.553C, "often feeling nervous" and "often feeling nervous", among other major risk factors for college students' NSSI. The area under the ROC curve was calculated by risk scoring model. The sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value were 72.3, 64.8 and 19.0 for 70% samples, respectively. Conclusion the early risk assessment model based on risk score is not self-directed for college students, and the sensitivity is 72.3, the specificity is 64.8, and the positive predictive value is 19.0.Conclusion the early risk assessment model based on risk score is not self-directed for college students. Killing self-injury has certain predictive effect.
【作者单位】：南昌大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室;江西省民政学校教务处;南昌市青云谱区疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病防治科;江西省赣州市卫生和计划生育委员会医政医管科;
【基金】：江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目,项目编号(GJJ150224) 南昌大学研究生创新专项资金资助,项目编号(cx2015157)
【分类号】：G444

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