我国义务学龄人口预测及教育资源需求研究

发布时间：2018-04-19 14:30

本文选题：全面二孩政策 + 义务教育　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：伴随着科技的发展,各国之间的竞争程度越来越激烈。归根到底,各国之间的竞争主要在于人才;而人才的培养主要靠教育;义务教育则是教育的基础。教育与人口一直是一个具有现实意义的课题之一,而教育的资源规划和布局与学龄人口的变动有着极大的内在关系,学龄人口的变动对教育资源的规划和布局更具有统领作用。随着“全面二孩”政策的普遍实施,我国的人口年龄结构必定会发生较大变化,中小学学龄人口年龄结构、数量及其变化趋势有待探究,义务教育资源配置较为困难。所以,对于做好义务教育学龄人口变动的预测工作具有十分重要的意义。本文首先对中国现有的义务教育资源现状进行了分析,理清了学龄人口变动对教育资源的影响作用。接着建立了基于系统动力学的人口模型,结合未来相关的政策因素的影响对人口模型中的参数进行了设置,根据总和生育率分为高中低三种方案。在Anylogic仿真平台上,对未来二十年的义务学龄人口进行仿真模拟,得到高、中、低三种仿真结果,并对预测结果进行比较分析。在此基础上,结合一些相关政策标准和实际情况,对义务教育阶段的师资、教育经费、学校数量、校舍面积、图书馆藏书量等基础性教育资源的需求进行预测分析。最后根据我国现有的义务教育现状研究及预测结果进行比较,阐述我国未来20年,义务教育发展可能需要面临的问题与挑战。研究发现,基于生育政策的改变,未来二十年,全国义务教育学龄人口并不是一直处于上升状态,“全面二孩”政策的作用效果具有时间限制性,对义务教育资源的需求不是一成不变的;在教师方面,不仅注重教师队伍的规模,更要注重其质量;统筹东中西各地区教育的均衡发展,应该理性合理的扩充义务教育资源,合理布局教育机构。
[Abstract]:With the development of science and technology, the competition between countries is becoming more and more fierce.In the final analysis, the competition between countries mainly lies in talents, and the cultivation of talents mainly depends on education, and compulsory education is the basis of education.Education and population have always been one of the topics of practical significance, and the resource planning and distribution of education has a great internal relationship with the change of school-age population, and the change of school-age population has a more dominant role in the planning and distribution of educational resources.With the general implementation of the policy of "all-around two-child", the population age structure of our country is bound to change greatly. The age structure, the quantity and the changing trend of the school-age population in primary and secondary schools need to be explored, and the allocation of compulsory education resources is more difficult.Therefore, it is of great significance to forecast the change of school age population of compulsory education.This paper first analyzes the current situation of compulsory education resources in China and clarifies the influence of the change of school-age population on educational resources.Then, the population model based on system dynamics is established, and the parameters of the model are set according to the influence of policy factors in the future. According to the total fertility rate, the population model is divided into three schemes: high, middle and low.On the platform of Anylogic, the voluntary school-age population in the next 20 years is simulated, and three kinds of simulation results, high, middle and low, are obtained, and the predicted results are compared and analyzed.On this basis, combined with some relevant policy standards and actual conditions, the demand for basic educational resources such as teachers, educational funds, the number of schools, the area of school buildings, the library collection and other basic educational resources in the compulsory education stage is forecasted and analyzed.Finally, according to the present situation of compulsory education in our country and the forecast results, the paper expounds the problems and challenges that the development of compulsory education may face in the next 20 years.The study found that, based on the change of fertility policy, the school-age population of compulsory education in China is not always on the rise in the next two decades, and the effect of the "comprehensive two-child" policy is time-limited.The demand for compulsory education resources is not inflexible; in terms of teachers, attention should be paid not only to the size of teachers but also to their quality; to coordinate the balanced development of education in East, West and China, it is necessary to rationally and reasonably expand compulsory education resources.Rational distribution of educational institutions.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：G522.3

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