基于灰色预测模型和层次分析法的高校招生数据分析与研究

发布时间：2018-05-20 03:41

本文选题：高校招生计划 + 定量指标　；参考：《重庆交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：招生计划的制定是高校招生工作的重要组成部分,科学合理地编制高校招生计划,有利于优化配置高等教育资源,促进教育公平。同时,招生计划制定的是否科学合理,已经成为影响高校是否能够健康、快速、可持续发展的关键因素。论文运用规范分析法对高校招生过程、影响因素及招生数据进行认真分析的基础上,分别采用灰色预测模型、二次移动平均模型和趋势外推法对招生总计划进行预测。运用对比实验方法对历史招生数据进行预测验证,得出了采用灰色预测模型对招生数据预测误差最小的结论,并考虑实际招生计划的波动性引入残差估计的方法对灰色预测模型进行改进,从而提高了预测招生数据的准确性和科学性。在上述预测结果的基础上,本文建立了层次分析法模型。由于招生计划编制工作受国家宏观调控、地方经济发展、就业形势、高校发展规划、专业布局、往年录取情况等诸多因素影响,这些因素有些是确定的,有些是不确定的。层析分析法可以处理定性与定量相结合的问题,将决策者的经验判断与政策因素导入模型,并加以量化处理。根据层次分析法的建模思路,通过构建递阶层次结构模型、构造判断矩阵等步骤来确定各影响因素的权重,进而求得分省招生计划、分专业招生计划和分省分专业招生计划。通过验证,本方法制定的招生计划符合实际情况,具有较好的实用价值,是一种有效的方法,可以用于指导高校的招生计划编制工作。该方法改变了多年来人们在制定高等学校招生计划时只考虑定性指标的做法,克服了传统做法容易受众多主观的、片面的因素干扰,主观随意性强的缺点,使制定的招生计划更加科学合理。
[Abstract]:The establishment of the enrollment plan is an important part of the enrollment work in colleges and universities. It is beneficial to optimize the allocation of higher education resources and promote the education fairness to draw up the enrollment plan scientifically and reasonably. At the same time, whether the enrollment plan is scientific and reasonable has become the key factor to affect the healthy, rapid and sustainable development of colleges and universities. On the basis of analyzing the enrollment process, influencing factors and enrollment data of colleges and universities, the paper uses grey prediction model, secondary moving average model and trend extrapolation method to predict the enrollment master plan. Using the method of contrast experiment to predict and verify the historical enrollment data, the conclusion that the grey prediction model is used to predict the minimum error of enrollment data is obtained. Considering the fluctuation of the actual enrollment plan, the method of residual error estimation is introduced to improve the grey prediction model, which improves the accuracy and scientificalness of the predicted enrollment data. Based on the above prediction results, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model is established in this paper. Due to the national macro-control, local economic development, employment situation, college development planning, professional layout, admission in previous years and many other factors, some of these factors are certain, some are uncertain. Chromatographic analysis can deal with the combination of qualitative and quantitative problems, and the empirical judgment and policy factors of decision makers can be introduced into the model and quantified. According to the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) modeling idea, the weight of each influencing factor is determined by constructing hierarchical structure model and judgment matrix, and then the provincial enrollment plan, specialized enrollment plan and provincial professional enrollment plan are obtained. It is proved that the enrollment plan made by this method accords with the actual situation and has good practical value. It is an effective method and can be used to guide the preparation of enrollment plan in colleges and universities. This method has changed the way that people only consider qualitative indicators when making enrollment plans for colleges and universities for many years. It overcomes the disadvantages that traditional methods are easily interfered by many subjective and one-sided factors, and subjective arbitrariness is strong. Make the enrollment plan more scientific and reasonable.
【学位授予单位】：重庆交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：G647.32

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