高校财务风险预警研究及实证分析

发布时间：2018-09-04 15:01

【摘要】：高校财务风险问题一直是引起社会广泛关注的热点问题。从2009年开始教育部、财政部出台了高校化债政策，政府化债工作的实施，在2012年底使多数公办高校已经化解了债务，银行贷款基本清零。在高校化债的同时，政府从制度和程序上也限定了高校新贷款的增加。但银行债务清零或减少并不能阻止高校原有基本建设项目规划的实施，高校建设费用的支付出现了新的问题。面对新的政策和新的情况，高校也由过去突出的债务风险转变为以资金链断裂为主的财务风险。本文运用数理统计方法和系统分析方法，以某省省属37所高校2011年和2012年的财务数据为样本进行了系统研究与指标分析。首先，本文研究了在新的政策环境下省属高校具有的新的财务现象，认为在新的政策下高校的财务风险不再是直接显性的银行贷款的债务风险，而是具有间接隐性的财务风险，表现形式主要有融资渠道的非银行性，借款方式的搭桥性，还贷资金的超前使用性，债务形式的隐蔽性等，具有形式隐蔽，风险极大的特性。其次，根据高校财务风险类型，分析了当前高校财务风险存在的原因。再者，根据高校化债后的新情况，在参考前人研究的基础上，，建立了以考核应付账款、应收账款、基建负债等指标为主的财务预警指标体系，并采用因子分析方法建立了高校财务预警模型，运用数理统计理论对高校的风险类型进行了划分。随后，本文运用支持向量机模型对高校财务风险预警进行验证，通过实证分析证明了预警模型的有效性。最后，本文采用比较分析的方法，对有风险高校出现问题较多的十项指标进行了分析，提出了高校加强内部审计监察、规范财务核算、加大应收账款清理、控制基建规模和增加资金储备等防范风险的建议与措施。
[Abstract]:The problem of financial risk in colleges and universities has always been a hot issue that has aroused widespread concern in the society. Since 2009, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Finance has issued the policy of university debt, the implementation of government debt, in the end of 2012, the majority of public universities have resolved the debt, bank loans are basically zero. At the same time, the government limits the increase of new loans in institutions and procedures. However, the zero or reduction of bank debt can not prevent the implementation of the original capital construction project planning in colleges and universities, and new problems have emerged in the payment of university construction expenses. In the face of new policies and new situations, colleges and universities have also changed from the outstanding debt risk in the past to the financial risk based on the break of the capital chain. Based on the data of 37 colleges and universities in a province in 2011 and 2012, this paper makes a systematic research and index analysis with the methods of mathematical statistics and system analysis. First of all, this paper studies the new financial phenomenon in provincial colleges and universities under the new policy environment, and thinks that the financial risk of colleges and universities under the new policy is not the debt risk of direct and explicit bank loans, but the indirect and implicit financial risk. The main forms of expression include the non-bank of financing channels, the bridging of borrowing mode, the advanced use of loan repayment funds, the concealment of debt forms, and so on, which have the characteristics of hidden form and great risk. Secondly, according to the types of financial risks in colleges and universities, this paper analyzes the reasons for the existence of financial risks in colleges and universities. Furthermore, according to the new situation after the university's debt conversion, and on the basis of the previous studies, a financial early-warning index system is established to assess the indicators of accounts payable, accounts receivable, capital construction liabilities, and so on. The financial early-warning model of colleges and universities is established by using factor analysis method, and the risk types of colleges and universities are classified by mathematical statistics theory. Then, this paper uses the support vector machine model to verify the early warning of financial risk in colleges and universities, and proves the effectiveness of the early warning model through empirical analysis. Finally, this paper analyzes the ten indexes with more problems in risk universities by using the method of comparative analysis, and puts forward that colleges and universities should strengthen internal audit supervision, standardize financial accounting, and increase accounts receivable cleaning up. Control the scale of capital construction and increase capital reserves and other risk prevention recommendations and measures.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：G647.5

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