我国学生营养健康状况未来5年发展趋势预测

发布时间：2018-06-29 22:40

本文选题：轻度营养不良 + 中度以上营养不良　；参考：《第三军医大学学报》2011年10期

【摘要】：目的预测未来5年全国学生营养健康状况的发展趋势。方法基于1985、1995、2000、2005年4次全国学生体质调研有关营养检测指标的监测数据,运用多变量灰色预测模型方法,建立全国学生营养不良、超重和肥胖的数学预测模型及其预测值。结果轻度营养不良2010、2015年的最大检出率,城市男生(城男)将达4.25%和4.33%,城市女生(城女)达7.37%和6.65%,乡村男生(乡男)达5.07%和6.29%,乡村女生(乡女)达7.37%和7.88%;中度以上营养不良2010、2015年最大检出率,城男达0.18%和0.20%,城女达0.68%和0.70%,乡男达0.20%和0.23%,乡女分别达0.72%和0.72%;超重2010、2015年的最大检出率,城男达22.89%和31.86%,城女达16.01%和20.09%,乡男达15.31%和22.42%,乡女达11.42%和14.90%;肥胖2010、2015年的最大检出率,城男达19.85%和26.02%,城女达11.18%和15.49%,乡男达10.91%和18.36%,乡女达6.13%和9.55%。13～15岁和16～18岁是未来5年我国学生营养不良的重点干预群体,10～12岁学生是超重和肥胖的重点干预群体;轻度营养不良学生群体有望下降,城市学生下降幅度较明显于农村学生;中度以上营养不良未来增降不明显,城乡差距不显著且水平基本持平。结论未来5年超重、肥胖学生群体呈递增态势,城市上升幅度高于农村,男生高于女生,肥胖成为未来5年威胁我国学生健康的重大营养问题,应引起全社会的高度重视与关注。
[Abstract]:Objective to predict the development trend of nutritional health status of students in the next 5 years. Methods based on the monitoring data of four national students' physique survey in 1985, 1995 and 2005, the multivariable grey prediction model was used to establish the mathematical prediction model and its predictive value of malnutrition, overweight and obesity among students in China. Results the maximum detection rate of mild malnutrition in 2010, 2015, Urban boys (city boys) will reach 4.25% and 4.33%, urban girls (city girls) 7.37% and 6.65%, country boys (town boys) 5.07% and 6.29%, rural girls (rural girls) 7.37% and 7.88%; moderate malnutrition in 2010, 2015 the highest detection rate, The highest rates of overweight in 2010 and 2015 were 22.89% and 31.86% for urban men, 16.01% and 20.09% for city women, 15.31% and 22.422% for townswomen, 15.31% and 22.422% for rural women, 11.42% and 14.90% for township women, 11.42% and 14.90% for rural women, respectively; and for 2010, 2015, the largest detection rate was 22.89% and 31.86% for urban men, 16.01% and 20.09 for urban women, 11.42% and 14.90% for rural women, respectively. 19.85% and 26.02% of male students, 11.18% and 15.49% of females, 10.91% and 18.36% of males, 6.13% and 9.55% of females and 16.18 years of age were the key intervention groups in the next five years. Mild malnutrition group is expected to decrease, urban students decline more than rural students, moderate malnutrition will not increase significantly in the future, the urban-rural gap is not significant and the level is basically the same. Conclusion in the next five years, overweight and obesity students will have an increasing trend, the urban population will be higher than that in rural areas, and the male students will be higher than the girls. Obesity will become a major nutritional problem threatening the health of Chinese students in the next five years. Should cause the whole society to attach great importance to and concern.
【作者单位】：重庆师范大学体育学院;陕西理工学院数学系;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金(09BTY027)~~
【分类号】：R151;G478

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