基于投入产出方法的各行业碳减排效果模拟研究

发布时间：2017-12-27 12:44

本文关键词：基于投入产出方法的各行业碳减排效果模拟研究　出处：《统计研究》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：差异化的产业减排激励政策是中国低碳经济转型中的重要课题。基于投入产出方法,本文对不同情景下的行业减排效果进行了模拟分析,发现:(1)国民经济中的高碳行业包括4个全过程型、15个传导型和6个表观高碳型。(2)在不同情景中的减排效应差异显著。强度减排方面,传导型行业降幅最大,其次是全过程型,最后是表观高碳型;绝对减排效果方面,全过程型高碳行业效果最优良,其次是表观高碳型,传导型的绝对减排效果最差。在行业减排激励政策制定中,选择重点扶持行业应重点关注其减排效果差异型特征。(3)减排技术进步是推动中国行业低碳转型的关键和潜力点。但短期内,减排技术进步的减排效应仍不足以抵消最终需求规模上升引起的增长效应;随着技术进步幅度增强,最终将带动碳排放总量下降。中国减排政策制定和目标分解中,应注重长、短期激励政策的协同安排。
[Abstract]:The differential incentive policy of industrial emission reduction is an important subject in the transition of China's low carbon economy. Based on the input-output method, the paper analyzes the emission reduction effect of industries under different scenarios, and finds that: (1) the high carbon industry in the national economy includes 4 whole process, 15 transmission type and 6 apparent high carbon type. (2) there is a significant difference in the effect of emission reduction in different scenarios. In terms of intensity reduction, the conduction industry is the largest, followed by the whole process, and the last is the apparent high carbon type. The absolute carbon emission reduction effect is the best in the whole process high carbon industry, followed by the apparent high carbon type, and the conduction type absolute emission reduction is the worst. In the formulation of industry emission reduction incentives, the selection of key support industries should focus on the difference characteristics of emission reduction effects. (3) the technological progress of emission reduction is the key and potential point to promote the low carbon transformation of China's industry. But in the short term, the emission reduction effect of emission reduction technology progress is still not enough to offset the growth effect caused by the rise of the final demand scale. With the increase of technological progress, it will eventually drive the total carbon emissions to decline. In the policy making and target decomposition of China's emission reduction, we should pay attention to the coordinated arrangement of long and short term incentive policies.
【作者单位】：华北电力大学经济与管理系;华北电力大学经济与管理学院;华北电力大学经济管理系;
【基金】：河北省社会科学基金项目“京津冀产业生态系统特征与重构研究”(HB16YJ075) 北京市教育委员会专项资金项目(16JDGLB023)的资助
【分类号】：F124.5;F223
【正文快照】： 一、引言中国碳减排2020年和2030年目标已经成为国家发展的宏观约束性指标,且为该目标的实现付出了巨大努力。《工业领域应对气候变化行动方案2012—2020》、《轻工业发展规划2016—2020》、《全国农业可持续发展规划(2015—2030年)》等是各行业为实现低碳转型做出的具体安

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