财政政策、货币政策对中国就业的影响路径研究——基于面板中介效应模型的估计

发布时间：2018-01-07 02:08

本文关键词：财政政策、货币政策对中国就业的影响路径研究——基于面板中介效应模型的估计　出处：《财政研究》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文采用面板中介效应模型探究了财政政策、货币政策对中国就业的影响路径,我们发现:(1)增加财政赤字的扩张性财政政策能够通过消费、投资(特别是私营投资)、经济增长路径促进就业增长,并且通过工资、通货膨胀路径也不会对就业产生显著的抑制作用;(2)增加货币供给M0、M2的扩张性货币政策能够通过消费路径促进就业增长,通过投资、工资、通货膨胀路径抑制就业增长,其中增加货币供给M0的扩张性货币政策能够通过经济增长路径促进就业增长,但是增加货币供给M2的扩张性货币政策通过经济增长路径对就业没有显著的影响;(3)降低利率的扩张性货币政策抑制就业增长的路径有消费、投资、工资、通货膨胀和经济增长。因此为了促进就业增长,应当以扩张性财政政策为主,以增加货币供给(特别是货币供给M0)的扩张性货币政策为辅,同时审慎地使用降低利率的货币政策。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the panel intermediary effect model is used to explore the impact of fiscal policy and monetary policy on employment in China. We find that the expansionary fiscal policy of increasing fiscal deficit can pass through consumption. Investment (especially private investment), economic growth path to promote employment growth, and through wages, inflation path will not significantly inhibit employment; (2) the expansionary monetary policy of increasing money supply M0 / M2 can promote employment growth through consumption path and restrain employment growth through investment, wage and inflation path. The expansionary monetary policy of increasing money supply M0 can promote employment growth through economic growth path. However, the expansionary monetary policy of increasing the money supply M2 has no significant effect on employment through the economic growth path. (3) the expansionary monetary policy of reducing interest rate can restrain employment growth by consumption, investment, wage, inflation and economic growth. Therefore, in order to promote employment growth, expansionary fiscal policy should be the main factor. It is supplemented by an expansionary monetary policy that increases the money supply, especially the money supply M0, while prudently using a monetary policy that reduces interest rates.
【作者单位】：首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院;国家发展和改革委员会社会发展研究所;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“财政政策、货币政策的就业效应研究(13CJY021)”的资助
【分类号】：F249.2;F812.0;F822.0
【正文快照】： 一、引言财政政策、货币政策通过哪些路径影响就业呢?在财政政策、货币政策影响就业的路径中,哪些路径对财政政策和货币政策的就业创造力有至关重要的影响呢?回答上述问题,不仅能够增进我们对财政政策、货币政策影响就业的机理的认识,而且能够为我们制定出更加有利于就业增长

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