PPP模式下高速公路项目投资风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-01-21 22:27

本文关键词： PPP 高速公路风险评价粗糙集支持向量机　出处：《河北工程大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：高速公路作为交通运输基础设施重要组成部分,具有广阔的发展前景。但投资额大、持续时间长等制约着高速公路项目的发展。而公私合营模式(Public-Private Partnership,PPP)的引入,有效利用社会资本,缓解政府财政压力,降低管理成本,公私合作提供了高质量的服务。然而我国还未形成丰富的PPP模式高速公路实施经验,风险评价体系等不尽完善,高速公路项目投资风险管理就显得格外重要。因此研究PPP模式下高速公路项目投资风险对保证项目顺利实施具有现实意义。本文首先阐述国内外研究现状、PPP模式及投资风险的相关理论概述,对PPP模式应用于高速公路项目的适用性进行分析,梳理PPP模式下高速公路项目的运作流程。其次,根据评价指标体系设计的原则,结合PPP模式高速公路项目内外部环境的特点,归纳总结PPP模式高速公路项目的主要影响因素,并以此为依据建立了评价指标体系。再次,介绍粗糙集、统计学习理论和支持向量机的相关理论,通过粗糙集对指标体系进行约简,剔除冗余信息,再用支持向量机进行机器训练,从而构建基于粗糙集和支持向量机的PPP模式下高速公路项目投资风险评价模型。最后,结合XY高速公路项目进行实证分析,证实该模型具有一定的实用性和应用价值。
[Abstract]:As an important part of transportation infrastructure, expressway has a broad prospect of development, but the investment is large. The long duration restricts the development of highway projects, and the introduction of Public-Private Partnership (PPP). Effective use of social capital to alleviate government financial pressure, reduce management costs, public-private partnerships to provide high-quality services. However, China has not yet formed a rich PPP model of expressway implementation experience. The risk evaluation system is not perfect. The risk management of expressway project investment is particularly important. Therefore, it is of practical significance to study the investment risk of expressway project under the PPP mode to ensure the smooth implementation of the project. Firstly, this paper describes the current research situation at home and abroad. PPP model and investment risk related theory overview, the applicability of PPP model applied in expressway project analysis, combing the operation process of expressway project under PPP mode. Secondly. According to the principles of evaluation index system design, combined with the characteristics of the internal and external environment of the PPP mode expressway project, the main influencing factors of the PPP mode expressway project are summarized. Based on this, the evaluation index system is established. Thirdly, rough set, statistical learning theory and support vector machine theory are introduced. The index system is reduced by rough set, and redundant information is eliminated. Then the support vector machine is used to train the machine to construct the risk evaluation model of expressway project investment based on rough set and support vector machine (SVM). Finally. Combined with the XY Expressway project, it is proved that the model has some practicability and application value.
【学位授予单位】：河北工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F283

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