A内饰公司X项目开发分阶段决策的实物期权模型研究

发布时间：2018-02-07 11:57

本文关键词： PLUS 内饰项目管理分阶段决策实物期权模型灵活管理价值评估　出处：《东华大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着国内宏观经济及汽车消费增长的放缓,如何在不确定性增加的市场环境下优化投资决策、确认竞争策略,已越来越受到汽车零部件企业的战略层关注。目前国内的财务可行性评估仍是基于稳定现金流预期下的折现计算广泛开展,愈发偏离于实际业务表现。相较之下,在波动市场环境下,实物期权法视灵活管理为有价行为,且随着各时段市场信息引入,可将其量化于项目价值增益中,以支持到投资决策。本文通过文献阅览,解读了传统现金折现价值理论缺陷,以及实物期权理论概念、核心思想、基本特性及分类;通过实物期权理论与传统方法的对比,归纳了实物期权价值的影响因素、研究方法衍化及其实证发展近况。本文同时引入了汽车内饰A公司项目开发流程,在宏观汽车市场调研的背景下,详述了A公司X、Y汽车内饰项目的开发现状及问题;基于A公司现有成本模型和内饰项目开发路径,分别阐述了传统现金折现视角下的项目价值模型,并完成了相应实物期权视角下的分阶段价值模型构建。在通过X内饰项目应用并检验内饰开发分阶段实物期权模型的过程中,基于对传统现金折现以及分阶段实物期权视角下项目价值的定量分析,本文又集合GESKE模型下的敏感性分析,对影响到项目(期权)总价值的各类要素进行了整理和决策优先级排序;同时利用传统现金折现模型与分阶段实物期权模型下的项目估值差异,阐明了灵活的投资管理为企业带来的量化价值及决策影响。通过研究内饰项目开发路径上的内在投资机制,本文显现出项目各阶段影响项目期权总价值的主要因素及其对决策者的影响规律及程度,从而在汽车内饰件领域完成了一次实物期权理论的拓展深化。展望未来,除了完善变量分析和计算,将进一步致力于探究实物期权复合价值及复杂博弈市场下多因素变化的投资决策方式,并结合A公司作为B2B内饰零部件企业的运营特点,深挖柔性资产投资及模块化产品设计的项目组合可能为企业带来的期权总价值。
[Abstract]:With the slowdown of domestic macroeconomic and automobile consumption growth, how to optimize investment decision and confirm competitive strategy in the uncertain market environment, At present, the domestic financial feasibility assessment is still widely carried out based on the expectation of stable cash flow, which deviates from the actual business performance more and more. In the fluctuating market environment, the real option method regards flexible management as a valuable behavior, and with the introduction of market information in each period, it can be quantified in the project value gain to support the investment decision. This paper interprets the defects of the traditional cash discounted value theory, as well as the concept, the core idea, the basic characteristics and the classification of the real option theory, and sums up the influencing factors of the real option value through the comparison between the real option theory and the traditional method. At the same time, this paper introduces the project development process of automobile interior decoration company A, under the background of the macroscopic automobile market research, details the current situation and problems of the development of the vehicle interior decoration project of company A; Based on the existing cost model and interior project development path of company A, this paper expounds the project value model under the traditional cash discount perspective, respectively. And completed the corresponding real options perspective of the phased value model construction. Through the X interior project application and test the process of development of the real options model, Based on the quantitative analysis of the project value from the perspective of traditional cash discounted and phased real options, this paper sets together the sensitivity analysis under the GESKE model. All kinds of factors affecting the total value of the project (option) are sorted out and the decision priorities are arranged. At the same time, the difference of the project valuation under the traditional cash discount model and the phased real option model is used. This paper expounds the quantitative value and decision-making influence of flexible investment management on enterprises. By studying the internal investment mechanism in the development path of interior decoration project, This paper shows the main factors that affect the total value of project options in each stage of the project and the law and extent of their influence on the decision makers, thus completing the expansion and deepening of the real option theory in the field of automotive interior accessories, and looking forward to the future. In addition to improving variable analysis and calculation, we will make further efforts to explore the investment decision-making mode of multi-factor change in real option compound value and complex game market, and combine the operating characteristics of A company as B2B interior parts enterprise. Deep-digging flexible assets investment and modular product design portfolio may bring the total value of options for the enterprise.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F224;F724.5;F426.471

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