东北地区流出人口就业状况及其影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-02-13 02:07

本文关键词： 东北地区流出人口就业状态 Logistic分析　出处：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来东北地区的经济形势不容乐观,经济增速连年全国倒数,东北问题引发社会各界的广泛关注。在经济发展过程中,人口和经济的增长是相互作用的关系,人口受经济增长的影响,反过来恶劣的经济环境也会影响一个地区的人口结构。东北地区在严峻的经济形势下,所面临的人口问题是人口外流现象,不仅规模大、增速快,还有加剧的趋势。这些人口纷纷逃离东北,去其他地区就业谋生。因此为了改变现有的人口外流状况,有必要研究影响这些人外出就业的因素,并据此来制定相关政策,来缓解人口外流对现有经济的影响。本文的研究基于2015年流动人口动态监测数据,选取户籍地为东北三省的流出人口,首先通过描述性分析,从性别年龄结构、户籍状况、受教育程度等人口属性方面,流动方向、流动时长和流出原因等流动因素方面来介绍这些流出人口的总体状况,发现具有如下特征:性别比偏高,以青壮年劳动力、农业户籍和中等学历为主,倾向于流向东部沿海地区,从事务工经商,一般流动时间以2-5年居多,这些流出人口的劳动强度较大,不同户籍和受教育程度直接影响收入水平,东部地区的收入水平最高。对流出人口的就业特征进行分析,选取就业状态、主要职业、就业身份、单位性质、周工作时间、月收支等方面,结果显示流出人口男性就业倾向高于女性,就业与否在受教育程度方面差异不大;就业身份方面,雇员是最主要的就业形态(65.9%),其次是自营劳动者;这些在业流出人口中,从事商业服务业的比重最高;单位性质为工商个体和民营集体的比重最高;在业人口从属行业最多的是消费服务业、生产服务业和制造业。对流出人口的就业影响因素进行分析方面,采用Logistic分析方法,选取人口学特征、社会经济特征和流动特征为自变量,就业状态和职业选择为因变量。结果显示:男性流出人口就业倾向高于女性;受教育程度对就业影响显著,每提高一个教育等级,就业概率平均提高18.5%;在婚状态更容易就业;农业户籍流出人口就业概率高,但倾向于从事劳动强度大的工作;年龄有负向影响,每提高一个等级就业概率会降低43.9%;在职业选择方面,除婚姻状况外的其他变量都有显著影响,这些因素体现在不同职业类型中。管理者和办公室类、专业技术类职业中,就业概率与受教育程度呈正相关关系,与年龄呈负相关关系。在专业技术类和生产运输类职业中,性别和户籍影响显著,男性就业概率更高,农业户口流出人口的就业概率也更高。最后给出对策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the economic situation in the Northeast region is not optimistic. The economic growth rate is countdown to the whole country. The northeast issue has aroused widespread concern from all walks of life. In the process of economic development, the population and economic growth are interacted. The population is affected by economic growth. In turn, the bad economic environment will also affect the population structure of a region. Under the severe economic situation, the population problem facing the Northeast region is the phenomenon of population outflow, which is not only large in scale but also fast in growth. There is also a growing trend. These people have fled the Northeast to find work and earn a living elsewhere. In order to change the current situation of the outflow, it is necessary to study the factors that affect these people's going out to work and to formulate relevant policies accordingly. Based on the dynamic monitoring data of floating population in 2015, this paper selects the population outflow from the three provinces of Northeast China. Firstly, through descriptive analysis, from the gender and age structure, the status of household registration. In terms of population attributes, such as education level, mobility direction, length of time and reasons for outflow, the general situation of the outflow population is introduced, and the following characteristics are found: the high sex ratio, the young labor force, and so on. Agricultural household registration and secondary education are dominant, tend to flow to the eastern coastal areas, are engaged in working and doing business, the general flow time is 2-5 years, the labor intensity of these outflow population is large, different household registration and education level directly affect the income level. The eastern region has the highest income level. This paper analyzes the employment characteristics of the outflow population, selects the employment status, the main occupation, the employment status, the unit nature, the weekly working hours, the monthly income and expenditure, and so on. The results show that the employment tendency of the outflow population is higher than that of the female, and there is no significant difference in the level of education. In terms of employment status, employees are the most important form of employment, followed by self-employed workers. The proportion of the commercial service industry is the highest; the proportion of the unit is the highest for the industrial and commercial individuals and the private collective; and the consumer service industry is the most subordinate sector for the working population. In terms of the factors affecting the employment of the outflow population, the Logistic analysis method is used to select demographic characteristics, socio-economic characteristics and mobility characteristics as independent variables. The results show that the employment tendency of the male outflow population is higher than that of the female, the education level has a significant influence on the employment, the employment probability increases by 18.5% for each higher education level, and it is easier to obtain employment in the marriage state. Agricultural household registration outflow population employment probability is high, but tend to engage in the work with high labor intensity; age has a negative impact, each increase in the probability of employment will be reduced by 43.9 percent; in terms of career choice, All the variables other than marital status have significant effects, and these factors are reflected in different occupational types. The employment probability is positively correlated with the level of education in the managerial and office categories, professional and technical occupations, and there is a positive correlation between the employment probability and the level of education. There is a negative correlation with age. Gender and household registration have significant influence on professional technology and production and transportation occupation. The employment probability of male is higher, and the employment probability of agricultural household outflow is higher. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions are given.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F249.27

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