基于贝叶斯网络的城市居民住房需求偏好研究——以天津市为例

发布时间：2018-03-19 04:04

本文选题：问卷调查　切入点：住房需求偏好　出处：《城市发展研究》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：基于《2016年天津市交通与住房调查问卷》数据,构建贝叶斯网络模型,比较分析不同社会群体的住房需求偏好,结果显示:年龄、学历及收入等因素与居民住房需求偏好显著相关;居民居住区位选择时关注的公共服务配套受年龄、婚姻状况、有无中小学生等因素影响;无住房公积金、非本地户籍人口通常选择租房,并且在城市居住时间越长其购房意愿越强烈;租房或拥有保障性住房家庭的居住面积普遍小于拥有商品房的家庭。提出应加大对居民住房消费金融支持力度、完善城市公共服务供给模式以及有序扩大住房保障覆盖范围等相关对策建议,为城市住房有效供给提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of Tianjin Traffic and Housing questionnaire of 2016, a Bayesian network model is constructed to compare and analyze the housing demand preferences of different social groups. The results show that: age, The factors such as education, income and so on are significantly related to the housing demand preference of residents; the public service matching that residents pay attention to in the choice of housing location is affected by the factors such as age, marital status, and the existence of primary and middle school students, etc. Non-local residents usually choose to rent, and the longer they live in the city, the stronger their willingness to buy houses; The living space of the families who rent or own affordable housing is generally smaller than that of those who own commercial housing. It is suggested that the financial support for residents' housing consumption should be increased. Improving the supply mode of urban public services and expanding the coverage of housing security in an orderly manner to provide a decision basis for the effective supply of urban housing.
【作者单位】：天津城建大学经济与管理学院;天津城建大学京津冀协同发展研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“新型城镇化进程中我国城市交通拥堵的评估体系、治理模式与政策组合研究”(14BJY043);国家社科基金项目“新型城镇化进程中我国城镇规模分布及其演进机理研究”(13BJY054) “十二五”天津市高等学校创新团队培养计划“新型城镇化与城市可持续发展”(TD12-5063)
【分类号】：F299.23

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