基于博弈论的城市轨道交通PPP项目风险分担模型研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 15:35

本文选题：博弈论　切入点：城市轨道交通　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城市轨道交通作为一种大容量的交通工具,能够有效缓解城市交通拥堵。但由于其高昂的造价,单纯依靠政府投入进行建设的模式很难满足各个城市对城市轨道交通的需求,而PPP模式作为一种能有效吸引社会资金和技术的创新性融资模式,逐渐受到人们的重视。城市轨道交通PPP项目具有投资大、时间长、风险高等特点,项目中存在的主要风险能否被公平、合理地分配是项目成功的关键,因此,对项目风险分担的研究具有重要的理论和实践意义。(1)分析了城市轨道交通项目的投融资特点,阐述了 PPP模式的相关概念和特征,分析了城市轨道交通项目与PPP模式结合的效用性,说明了PPP项目风险分担的内涵和原则,并介绍了本文所采用的非合作博弈模型、随机合作博弈模型和演化博弈模型等相关内容。(2)阐明了城市轨道交通PPP项目风险分担框架的内容,包括风险分担主体的划分、风险因素的识别及量化、风险分担流程的设计,并对每一部分进行了深入研究。其中,在风险分担主体划分的基础上,对其利益目标进行了分析;在全面识别风险因素的基础上,采用集值统计模型对风险因素的重要度进行了量化计算,并进行了风险分级;最后设计了风险分担的流程。(3)对风险分担主体在面对风险时的合作态度构建了演化博弈模型,分析了分担主体最终演化为积极合作的条件;依据分担主体的风险偏好度和项目的产出收益构建了完全信息静态博弈模型,将风险因素划分为非共担风险和共担风险;通过构建公共部门、私人部门和金融机构三方的随机合作博弈模型,对共担风险的分担比例进行了研究,并采取修正的Shapley值对随机合作博弈模型进行求解。(4)结合北京市某地铁线路PPP项目进行了案例分析,对风险分担主体的风险态度进行了仿真演化,对项目进程中的非共担风险和共担风险进行了分类,计算了公共部门、私人部门和金融机构对共担风险的承担比例,并对城市轨道交通PPP项目的风险分担制度的设计给出了相应的建议。
[Abstract]:As a mass transit vehicle, urban rail transit can effectively alleviate urban traffic congestion. However, due to its high cost, it is difficult to meet the demand of urban rail transit by relying solely on government input for construction. As an innovative financing mode which can attract social funds and technology effectively, PPP model has been paid more and more attention. The PPP project of urban rail transit has the characteristics of large investment, long time, high risk and so on. Whether the main risks in the project can be fairly distributed is the key to the success of the project. Therefore, the research on the risk sharing of the project has important theoretical and practical significance. (1) the characteristics of the investment and financing of the urban rail transit project are analyzed. This paper expounds the related concepts and characteristics of PPP mode, analyzes the utility of the combination of urban rail transit project and PPP mode, explains the connotation and principle of risk sharing in PPP project, and introduces the non-cooperative game model adopted in this paper. The stochastic cooperative game model and evolutionary game model, etc. (2) expound the contents of the risk sharing framework of urban rail transit PPP project, including the division of risk sharing subject, the identification and quantification of risk factors, and the design of risk sharing process, including the division of risk sharing subject, the identification and quantification of risk factors, and the design of risk sharing process. Among them, on the basis of dividing the main body of risk sharing, the paper analyzes its benefit goal, and on the basis of identifying the risk factors in an all-round way, In this paper, the importance of risk factors is calculated quantitatively by using set-valued statistical model, and the risk classification is carried out. Finally, the process of risk sharing is designed, and the evolutionary game model is constructed for the cooperative attitude of risk sharing agents in the face of risk. The paper analyzes the conditions under which the sharing agent evolves into positive cooperation, constructs a static game model of complete information according to the risk preference degree of the sharing agent and the output income of the project, and classifies the risk factors into non-shared risk and co-bearing risk. By constructing a stochastic cooperative game model of public sector, private sector and financial institution, this paper studies the proportion of shared risk sharing. The modified Shapley value is adopted to solve the stochastic cooperative game model. The case analysis is carried out in combination with the PPP project of a metro line in Beijing, and the risk attitude of the risk sharing agent is simulated and evolved. Non-shared risks and shared risks in the project process were classified and the share of the public sector, the private sector and financial institutions was calculated, The design of risk sharing system for PPP project of urban rail transit is also given.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F572;F283;O225

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