浙江省旅游业发展、产业结构升级与就业增长——基于VAR模型的检验

发布时间：2018-03-23 09:47

本文选题：浙江省　切入点：旅游业发展　出处：《哈尔滨商业大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：选取2000—2014年的相关数据研究浙江省旅游业发展、产业结构升级与就业增长之间的关系,发现观察期内浙江省旅游业拥有长足发展,旅游业发展和产业结构升级、就业增长之间存在密切的联系。通过VAR模型检验可知,产业结构升级和就业增长在前期促进了旅游业发展,旅游业在发展后期加速了全省产业结构升级的步伐,并发挥了"就业蓄水池"的功能。脉冲响应分析和方差分解表明,短期内旅游业发展对产业结构升级和就业增长作出了突出贡献。旅游业发展更依赖于自身进步,且对产业结构升级和就业增长的冲击逐期增强,成为推动二者发展的主导力量。
[Abstract]:Selecting the relevant data from 2000 to 2014 to study the relationship between tourism development, industrial structure upgrading and employment growth in Zhejiang Province, it is found that the tourism industry in Zhejiang Province has developed rapidly during the observation period, and the tourism industry development and industrial structure upgrading in the observation period. There is a close relationship between the employment growth. The VAR model test shows that the upgrading of industrial structure and employment growth promoted the development of tourism in the early stage, tourism accelerated the pace of upgrading the industrial structure of the province in the latter stage of development. The impulse response analysis and variance decomposition show that tourism development has made outstanding contributions to the upgrading of industrial structure and employment growth in the short term, and tourism development depends more on its own progress. Moreover, the impact on industrial structure upgrading and employment growth has become the leading force to promote the development of both.
【作者单位】：华东师范大学经济与管理学部;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“我国反季旅游市场潜力的区域差异与开发策略研究”(12AJY008)
【分类号】：F127;F249.27;F592.7

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