住房投资需求对房价变动贡献的测度

发布时间：2018-03-29 07:02

本文选题：资产替代　切入点：空间面板　出处：《山西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：自2004年以来我国房地产业发展迅速,商品住宅价格经历了一段时期的高速增长,从而引发了政府和学术界对房地产泡沫的广泛讨论。房价为何迅速增长,原因之一是快速城镇化导致的刚需大量增长,原因之二是房价上涨滋生了住房投资需求,因为住房不仅是生活必需品,还是一种资产,能够保值增值。但是住房的投资需求到底在房价上涨过程中有多大贡献,尚未有文献进行测度,有的只是定性分析,有人认为投资需求尚不构成房价上涨的主要原因,有人认为是主要原因之一。本文将实证测度住房投资需求对房价上涨的贡献率,为政府掌握房价变动原因提供参考。要测度住房投资需求对房价上涨的贡献,首先要测度住房投资需求,然后测度住房需求对房价的影响,最后才能得到投资需求对房价的影响。针对住房投资需求测度尚未有从宏观视角进行研究的文献,本文抓住住房投资是将住房视为资产的关键特征,将住房与其他资产的替代程度作为住房投资强弱的衡量指标,将住房在自身及其他资产收益率发生变化时的替代效应作为住房投资需求的衡量指标,对住房投资进行测度。住房投资需求测度是在第二章完成,先建立包括存款、股票和住房三种资产的住户部门资产需求系统,然后根据资产需求系统估计结果测度住房投资需求。第三章通过构建和估计住房价格影响因素模型,估计出住房需求对房价的影响系数,并利用该影响系数和住房投资需求相结合,设计出住房投资需求对房价上涨贡献的计算公式,测算出了住房投资需求对房价上涨的贡献度。本章首先对住房价格的影响因素进行了理论分析。考虑到房价具有空间联动性,房价模型形式采用了空间面板模型。在模型构建和估计时,解决了住房需求作为房价解释变量的内生性问题。本文的主要结论是:第一,我国商品住宅已经表现出投资属性。商品住宅与股票的替代弹性明显大于其与存款的替代弹性,说明住户部门认为商品住宅与股票更加接近,商品住宅具有投资属性。第二,我国商品住宅投资需求对房价上涨的贡献有时是正向的有时是负向的。房价上涨速度越快时,投资需求对房价上涨的贡献就越大。在股票价格疯狂增长的2006年和2007年,住房的投资需求为负,说明有部分住房投资资金流向股市,该阶段住房投资需求对房价上涨的贡献是负的。房价上涨速度较慢时,住房投资需求也是负的,说明有些住房投资资金已经撤离,此时住房投资需求对房价上涨贡献也是负的。第三,商品住宅价格水平在空间分布上具有一定的空间效应特征。第四,除了空间因素以外,我国不同地区经济发展水平的不平衡,也会造成商品住宅价格的不同。最后,主要从税收角度给出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since 2004, the real estate industry of our country has developed rapidly, and the price of commodity housing has experienced a period of rapid growth, which has caused the government and academic circles to discuss the real estate bubble widely. One of the reasons is that the rigid demand due to rapid urbanization has increased greatly, and the second reason is that rising house prices breed the demand for housing investment, because housing is not only a necessity, but also an asset. But how much contribution housing investment demand has made in the process of housing price rise has not yet been measured by literature, and some are only qualitative analysis. Some people think that investment demand has not yet constituted the main reason for the rise in house prices. Some people think it is one of the main reasons. This paper will measure the contribution rate of housing investment demand to the rise of house price, and provide a reference for the government to grasp the reasons for the change of house price. In order to measure the contribution of housing investment demand to the rise of house price, First of all, we should measure the housing investment demand, then measure the impact of housing demand on housing prices, finally, we can get the impact of investment demand on housing prices. In this paper, housing investment is regarded as a key characteristic of housing as an asset, and the degree of substitution of housing and other assets is regarded as a measure of housing investment. Taking the substitution effect of housing when the rate of return on itself and other assets changes as a measure of housing investment demand, this paper measures housing investment. The housing investment demand measurement is completed in the second chapter. Stock and housing three assets of the household sector asset demand system, and then according to the results of the asset demand system to measure housing investment demand. Chapter three through the construction and estimation of housing price impact factors model, The influence coefficient of housing demand on housing price is estimated, and the formula for calculating the contribution of housing investment demand to housing price increase is designed by combining this influence coefficient with housing investment demand. The paper calculates the contribution of housing investment demand to housing price increase. Firstly, this chapter analyzes the influence factors of housing price. The housing price model adopts the spatial panel model. When the model is constructed and estimated, the endogenous problem of housing demand as the explanatory variable of housing price is solved. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, The substitution elasticity of commodity residence and stock is obviously greater than that of deposit, which indicates that the household department thinks that commodity residence is closer to stock, and commodity residence has investment attribute. The contribution of China's commodity housing investment demand to the rise of house prices is sometimes positive and sometimes negative. The faster the housing price rises, the greater the contribution of investment demand to the rise of house prices. The negative demand for housing investment indicates that some housing investment funds flow to the stock market, and the contribution of housing investment demand to the housing price rise at this stage is negative. When the housing price rises slowly, the housing investment demand is also negative. It shows that some housing investment funds have been withdrawn, and the demand for housing investment has also contributed negatively to the rise of house prices. Third, the level of commodity housing prices has a certain spatial effect on the spatial distribution. Fourth, in addition to spatial factors, The imbalance of economic development level in different regions of China will also lead to the difference of commodity housing prices. Finally, some policy suggestions are given from the perspective of taxation.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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