基于拥堵概率的北京市配送路径选择研究

发布时间：2018-04-02 08:15

本文选题：拥堵概率　切入点：城市配送　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：城市严重的交通拥堵问题,使配送效率大大降低,而配送企业为提高配送服务质量,满足配送要求,又需要投入配送车辆,配送车辆的投入又加剧了交通拥挤,因此城市配送面临着更加巨大的挑战,如何避免道路的拥堵或者在道路拥堵状况不确定的情况下选择恰当的配送路径,准时完成配送成了各个配送行业追逐的目标。在此背景下,本文进行如下仿真研究。本文将北京市作为研究对象,首先对北京市路网和北京市物流中心布局进行分析,通过长期观测北京市路网的交通状况,统计出高峰时段和非高峰时段下北京市各路段的拥堵概率,并根据“十二五”规划设定北京市物流中心。随后分析北京市的配送需求,结合配送需求设定基于拥堵概率的北京城市配送模型的运行流程,在此基础上在Anylogic仿真平台上建立Agent(MainAgent、客户需求Agent、车辆运输Agent)仿真模型。接下来通过定量与定性相结合的办法验证了本文模型的合理性。然后结合实际的交通状况对北京市的配送情况进行仿真。最后对仿真结果主要进行配送路径、配送距离和配送时间三方面的分析,并根据分析结果得出北京城市配送中的关键路段,以为配送路径的选择提供合理性建议。本文得出的结论主要有以下两方面内容:一方面,考虑拥堵概率后,配送活动对北京市的道路交通状况产生了影响,高峰时段下,二环、三环的交通负荷较低,而四环、五环、六环的交通负荷变大,非高峰时段下,东五环、南三环、东三环、西三环的交通负荷明显变高。另一方面,不同时段下,配送车辆选择配送路径受到拥堵概率的影响不同,高峰时段下,配送车辆选择配送路径时受到路段拥堵概率的影响较明显,配送车辆会避开拥堵概率较高的路径,选择绕行拥堵概率较低的环线进行配送,而非高峰时段配送车辆选择配送路径时受到路段拥堵概率的影响较小。
[Abstract]:In order to improve the service quality and meet the requirements of distribution, the distribution enterprises need to invest in the distribution vehicles, and the investment of the distribution vehicles has aggravated the traffic congestion. Therefore, urban distribution is faced with a greater challenge, how to avoid road congestion or in the case of uncertain road congestion conditions to choose the appropriate distribution path, Completion of distribution on time has become the goal pursued by all distribution industries. In this context, the following simulation studies are carried out in this paper. In this paper, Beijing is taken as the research object, and the distribution of Beijing network and logistics center is analyzed first. Through long-term observation of the traffic situation of Beijing's road network, the congestion probability of each section of Beijing during peak and off-peak periods is calculated, and the Beijing logistics center is set up according to the 12th Five-Year Plan. The distribution demand of Beijing is then analyzed. According to the distribution demand, the operation process of Beijing urban distribution model based on congestion probability is set up. On this basis, the simulation model of Agent main Agent, customer demand Agent and vehicle Transportation Agent is established on the Anylogic simulation platform. Then the rationality of this model is verified by the combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. The distribution situation in Beijing is simulated. Finally, the distribution path is mainly carried out on the simulation results. The analysis of distribution distance and distribution time, and according to the results of the analysis of the key sections of urban distribution in Beijing to provide reasonable advice for the choice of distribution routes. The conclusions of this paper have the following two main contents: on the one hand, After considering the congestion probability, distribution activities have an impact on the road traffic situation in Beijing. During the peak hours, the traffic loads of the second and third rings are relatively low, while the traffic loads of the fourth, fifth, and sixth rings become larger, and during the off-peak hours, the East Fifth Ring, On the other hand, at different times, the choice of distribution routes of distribution vehicles is affected by the congestion probability, and during the peak period, the traffic load of the third Ring Road, the East third Ring Ring, and the West third Ring Ring has become significantly higher. When the distribution vehicle chooses the distribution path, it is obviously affected by the congestion probability of the section. The distribution vehicle will avoid the path with the higher congestion probability and choose the loop with low congestion probability to distribute. However, the non-peak distribution vehicles are less affected by the congestion probability when they choose the distribution path.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F259.27;U492.22

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