山东半岛城市群的适度规模——基于水资源视角的分析

发布时间：2018-04-08 13:01

本文选题：水资源承载力　切入点：城市适度规模　出处：《城市问题》2017年10期

【摘要】：基于水资源承载力建立了城市适度规模计算模型和城市适度规模与实际人口的协调度评价模型,对山东半岛城市群适度规模与水资源承载力协调程度的时空格局进行了评估,对未来水资源约束下的山东半岛城市的适度规模进行了预测。结果显示:山东半岛城市群水资源供给水平及居民生活可利用水平呈现在波动中略微下降的趋势;2004-2014年,山东半岛城市群实际人口规模高于城市适度规模,区域水资源处于超载状态,城市适度规模距离协调度为濒临失调状态;从空间格局上来看,山东半岛城市群西部的水资源供需状况优于东部地区。预测结果显示,2015-2020年山东半岛城市群基于水资源承载力的城市适度规模小于线性预测人口,差距有逐年增大的趋势。据此认为,优化产业结构、加快用水技术革新、建立水资源补偿与恢复机制、加强区际用水协调是应对山东半岛城市群水资源供需矛盾的应有措施。
[Abstract]:Based on the calculation model of water resources carrying capacity and the evaluation model of coordination degree between urban moderate scale and actual population, the spatial and temporal pattern of the coordination degree between the appropriate scale of urban agglomeration and the carrying capacity of water resources in Shandong Peninsula is evaluated.The moderate scale of Shandong Peninsula city under the restriction of water resources in the future is forecasted.The results show that the water resources supply level and the living available level of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration show a slightly decreasing trend in fluctuation. From 2004 to 2014, the actual population scale of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration is higher than that of urban moderate scale.The regional water resources are in the state of overload and the coordination degree of the moderate scale distance of the city is on the verge of imbalance. From the spatial pattern, the water resources supply and demand situation in the west of Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration is superior to that in the eastern region.The forecast results show that the appropriate scale of cities based on water resources carrying capacity in Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration from 2015 to 2020 is smaller than that of linear forecast population, and the gap is increasing year by year.It is concluded that optimizing the industrial structure, speeding up the technological innovation of water use, establishing the mechanism of water resources compensation and restoration, and strengthening the coordination of water use among regions are the necessary measures to deal with the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration.
【作者单位】：济南大学商学院经济系;山东师范大学地理与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41571525)
【分类号】：F299.27;TV213.4

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