我国货币政策对房地产市场价格影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-16 18:23

本文选题：货币政策 + 房地产市场　；参考：《吉林财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国从1998年开始进行住房货币化改革,之后房地产市场一片繁荣,无论房价水平还是投资水平都得到显著提升。而房地产市场的快速发展也会带来这样那样的问题,比如短期内我国房价上涨过快,远超国家经济预期,再如房地产的开发资金极度依赖于银行信贷。在这种环境下,为使货币政策发挥出更加积极的调节作用,使房地产市场平稳发展,中央银行更有效地维护金融体系和宏观经济,笔者认为探析我国货币政策是否具备有效调控房地产市场的经济能力,探讨我国房地产市场发展会对货币政策的发展产生哪些影响,探究房地产市场与货币供应量、商业银行法定存款准备金率、1年期贷款基准利率以及房地产开发资金来源于国内贷款的联系,具有十分重要的现实意义。笔者根据我国2000年12月-2016年06月的有关数据,科学有效地分析了我国房地产市场发展对货币政策的影响,其中实证分析灵活的运用了多种方法,分别是:在平稳的时间序列中运用普通最小二乘法(高斯);对非平稳时间序列的分析运用VAR模型(向量自回归模型),并且对向量自回归模型进行GRANGER检验;对后期的残差存在自相关的回归进行修正。正文从多种角度分析房地产市场发展的影响因素,发现货币政策所具有的时滞性;单独某个货币政策工具难以实现对房价的调节;货币政策的制定往往考虑的是经济的总体状况以及公众预期影响货币政策调控房地产的效果等因素是使得房地产市场发展到现在这种局面的主要原因。结合文章的实证分析,本文提出了关于完善我国货币政策的建议:第一,缩短货币政策的时滞时间;第二,保持货币政策的一致性、连续性和透明性;第三,加强货币政策与信贷政策的配合,综合运用多种货币政策工具;第四,合理控制货币供应量,严格控制房地产投机信贷规模;第五,加强中央银行房地产市场金融市场的沟通;第六,改善政府保障的服务功能,提高保障房的服务功能。
[Abstract]:China started the housing reform in 1998, after a prosperous real estate market, regardless of the price level or the level of investment have been significantly improved. And the rapid development of the real estate market will also have such problems, such as the short term of China's housing prices rose too fast, far exceeding the national economic expectations, and real estate the development funds is extremely dependent on bank credit. In this environment, in order to make monetary policy play a more active role in regulating the smooth development of the real estate market, the central bank to maintain the financial system and macro economy more effectively, the author thinks that whether the analysis of monetary policy in China has the effective regulation of the real estate market economy ability. To explore the development of China's real estate market will affect the development of monetary policy, explore the real estate market and the money supply, commercial banks statutory deposit reserve ratio, a period of 1 years. The benchmark interest rate loans and real estate development funds from domestic loans, has very important practical significance. According to the relevant data of China from December 2000 -2016 years 06 months, scientific and effective analysis of the impact of China's real estate market development on monetary policy, the empirical analysis of the flexible use of a variety of methods, respectively. Is using ordinary least squares method in stationary time series in (Gauss); analysis of the use of VAR model of non-stationary time series (vector autoregressive model), and the GRANGER test vector autoregressive model test; residual on the later period the correlation regression analysis of influencing factors of the correction. The development of the real estate market from different angles, it is found that the delay of the monetary policy has; a single monetary policy tools to regulate the prices; monetary policy is often considered The overall situation of economic factors and the public expected impact of monetary policy on real estate is the result of the development of the real estate market to make the main reason for this situation now. Combining with the empirical analysis, this paper presents a perfect monetary policy recommendations: first, to shorten the time lag of monetary policy; second, maintaining the consistency of currency policy, continuity and transparency; third, strengthen the coordination of monetary policy and credit policy, comprehensive use of various monetary policy tools; fourth, the reasonable control of the money supply, strictly control the real estate speculation credit scale; fifth, the central bank to strengthen the financial market of the real estate market communication; sixth, to improve the service function of the government guarantee and enhance the service function of the low-income housing.

【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F822.0;F299.23

【参考文献】