劳动力成本上升对我国出口贸易的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 23:36

本文选题：出口贸易 + 劳动力成本　；参考：《安徽大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：2008年的金融危机结束了全球经济持续20年的"大稳定",受全球金融风暴的冲击,各国的出口贸易增速都出现了不同程度的下滑。后危机时期,中国经济的基本面亦发生了深刻的变化,经济增长开始由高速向中高速增长转变。新的经济形势下,我国的出口贸易企业正面临着生产率增长乏力和劳动力成本不断攀升双重作用所带来的巨大转型压力。一方面,随着近年来我国城市化进程的飞速发展和人民生活水平的不断提高,我国的劳动力成本也在逐年上升。2001年至2008年间我国城镇单位就业人员平均工资的平均年增长率为15.1%,2009年至2014年平均为11.7%。另一方面,随着我国劳动力成本的攀升,劳动力密集型的加工贸易产业开始向劳动力成本更为低廉的新兴发展中国家转移,这也形成了对我国的加工贸易产业和出口贸易行业的巨大竞争压力。改革开放以来,充裕的劳动力供给和廉价的劳动力成本一直是我国发展出口贸易参与国际竞争的重要支撑。在微观上,劳动力成本的变化影响着我国出口企业参与对外贸易的出口成本,从而直接影响我国出口企业特别是加工贸易企业的国际竞争力。在宏观上,劳动力成本的变化影响着我国整个出口贸易产业的发展趋势和内部结构的变化。随着我国城市化进程的加速和国际经济环境的变化,中国经济的粗放型发展模式逐渐不可持续。产业结构的调整与升级势必对我国的出口贸易产业提出新的要求,而以廉价劳动力和劳动密集型产业为依托的出口贸易发展模式显然已经不能适应中国经济转型与发展的要求。新的经济形势下,在我国出口贸易企业技术水平无法大幅度提高的情况下,劳动力成本的不断提高势必造成企业生产成本的增加,从而影响我国出口贸易企业的竞争力。传统上依托廉价劳动力供给、政策支持和规模经济效应而发展起来的低附加值、粗放型的出口贸易发展模式必然无法持续。新的经济现实下,劳动力成本的不断攀升如何影响我国出口贸易企业的发展?劳动力成本压力下我国劳动力密集型的加工贸易企业如何转型与发展?劳动力成本的不断上升如何影响我国出口贸易行业的转型与升级?新的国际经济环境下如何探寻一条可持续的贸易发展之路?新的经济现实下,一系列问题亟待解答。因此,对于劳动力成本和我国出口贸易发展关系问题的研究便具有了深远的意义。本文以贸易成本和生产成本的变化为切入点,以27个制造业行业的面板数据为微观基础,以国际贸易和产业经济学的相关理论为支撑,采取理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法,对劳动力成本与我国出口贸易发展的关系进行了详尽分析。本文分为六个部分进行论述,第一部分为本文绪论,主要总结和概括了关于劳动力成本变化和出口贸易发展相关问题以往的研究和文献,对之前学者们的研究路径进行了梳理。第二部分主要介绍有关劳动力供给、要素禀赋及对外贸易发展的相关理论。第三部分主要介绍了近年来我国劳动力成本水平的变化和对外贸易的发展状况。第四部分从劳动力成本、企业规模和劳动生产率等角度分析了不同经济时期内劳动力成本对于我国出口贸易发展的影响机制。第五部分为实证分析,运用2003年至2013年27个行业的面板数据,比较分析了 2008年金融危机前后的两个经济时期内,劳动力成本上升对企业出口和企业劳动生产率的影响,以此说明成本因素的变化对我国出口贸易发展的作用机制。研究结果表明,一方面,劳动力工资的上升对我国出口贸易企业形成了成本约束,从而成为出口贸易发展与转型的一个重要因素。另一方面,随着国际经济环境的变化,出口贸易发展初期所依托的规模经济优势正逐渐弱化,传统上低附加值、粗放型的出口贸易模式将不可持续。第六部分为本文在理论分析和实证分析所得结论及促进我国出口贸易发展的相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:The financial crisis of 2008 ended the "great stability" of the global economy for 20 years. Under the impact of the global financial turmoil, the growth of export trade in all countries has declined in varying degrees. In the post crisis period, profound changes have taken place in the fundamentals of China's economy. The economic growth began to change from high speed to medium speed. The new economic situation is changing. At the same time, China's export trade enterprises are facing the huge transformation pressure brought by the dual role of low productivity growth and rising labor costs. On the one hand, with the rapid development of urbanization and the continuous improvement of the people's living standards in recent years, the cost of labor power in our country is increasing year by year from.2001 to 2008 year by year. The average annual growth rate of the average wage for the employment of urban units in China is 15.1%, the average of 11.7%. from 2009 to 2014 is on the other side. With the increase of labor cost in China, the labor intensive processing industry has begun to transfer to the new developing country which is cheaper in the labor cost, which also forms the processing trade to our country. Since the reform and opening up, the abundant labor supply and cheap labor cost have been the important support for China's export trade to participate in international competition since the reform and opening up. In microcosmic, the change of labor cost affects the export cost of China's export enterprises to participate in foreign trade, thus the direct shadow of the labor cost On the macro level, the change of labor cost affects the development trend and the internal structure of the whole export trade industry in China. With the acceleration of China's urbanization process and the change of the international economic environment, the extensive development model of China's economy is gradually impossible. The adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure will put forward new requirements for China's export trade industry, and the export trade development model, based on cheap labor and labor intensive industries, is obviously unable to meet the requirements of China's economic transformation and development. Under the new economic situation, the technical level of our export trade enterprises is no longer. When the law has been greatly improved, the increasing labor cost will inevitably result in the increase of the cost of production, which will affect the competitiveness of the export trade enterprises in China. The low value-added, which is traditionally supported by the supply of cheap labor, the policy support and the scale economic effect, is inevitable. Continuing. Under the new economic reality, how does the rising labor cost affect the development of China's export trade enterprises? How does our labor intensive processing trade enterprise transform and develop under the pressure of labor cost? How does the rising labor cost affect the transformation and upgrading of China's export trade industry? A new international economy How to explore a sustainable trade development path under the environment? A series of problems are urgently answered under the new economic reality. Therefore, the research on the relationship between labor cost and the development of China's export trade has far-reaching significance. This paper takes the changes of trade cost and production cost as the breakthrough point, with the face of 27 manufacturing industries. On the microcosmic basis, plate data is based on the theory of international trade and industrial economics, and the method of combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis is adopted to analyze the relationship between labor cost and the development of China's export trade. This paper is divided into six parts. The first part is the introduction, which is summarized and summarized. The previous research and literature about the change of labor cost and the development of export trade have been reviewed. The second part mainly introduces the related theories about labor supply, factor endowment and the development of foreign trade. The third part mainly introduces the level of labor cost in China in recent years. The fourth part analyses the influence mechanism of labor cost on the development of China's export trade from the labor cost, enterprise scale and labor productivity. The fifth part is an empirical analysis, using the panel data of 27 industries from 2003 to 2013, compared and analyzed the 2008. In the two economic periods before and after the financial crisis, the effect of the rise of labor costs on the export of enterprises and the labor productivity of enterprises shows that the changes in the cost factors affect the development of China's export trade. On the one hand, the rise of labor wages has formed a cost constraint on our export trade enterprises. As an important factor in the development and transformation of export trade, on the other hand, with the change of the international economic environment, the economic advantages of the export trade are gradually weakening, the traditional low value-added and extensive export trade mode will not be sustainable. The sixth part is the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis in this paper. Conclusion and related policy recommendations to promote the development of China's export trade.

【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.68;F249.21

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