房地产上市公司财务风险区域因素分析

发布时间：2018-05-03 15:49

本文选题：区域因素 + 财务风险　；参考：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：房地产业是我国的支柱性产业,房地产业的发展存在明显的区域差异,近年来不同城市的市场分化更趋明显,一线城市及热点二线城市依然供不应求,房价表现坚挺,而多数三四线城市供求结构失衡,房价指数上涨动力不再,去库存问题严重,可见,不同的区域因素对房地产上市公司的财务风险影响也会有所不同。很多学者已经对房地产上市公司的财务风险因素进行了研究,但是针对区域因素对于房地产上市公司财务风险影响的研究还比较薄弱,基于以上的房地产业发展背景,本文从区域不同对房地产上市公司财务风险影响不同的角度出发,主要来分析区域因素对房地产上市公司财务风险是否有影响,有什么样的影响,以及哪些区域差异变量对房地产上市公司的财务风险有显著影响,以期能够为房地产公司作出些许指导,同时为政府引导地区房地产业的发展提供些许参考。Z-Score模型也称为Z计分模型,是美国纽约大学Edward I.Altman教授创立的,主要从企业资产流动性、获利能力、财务结构、偿债能力和发展能力等方面综合反映企业的财务状况。Z值越小,企业财务风险越大,反之,Z值越大,企业财务风险越小。本文在区域理论和财务风险相关理论的基础上,采用多层线性模型(HLM)的分析思想,以11个省市40家房地产上市公司为样本,使用2009-2014年6年的数据作为研究区间,以房地产上市公司的Z值作为因变量,选取区域层面的劳动参与率、投资水平、工业化水平、对外依存度、城市化水平来作为自变量,并选取了企业层面的前五大股东持股比例、资产增长率和资产负债率来作为控制变量,进行了涉及区域和企业两个层面的房地产上市公司的财务风险因素分析,并得出了以下结论:1、区域变量劳动参与率对房地产上市公司Z值有显著的负影响,即劳动参与率越高,Z值越小,房地产上市公司的财务风险越大。2、区域投资水平对房地产上市公司Z值有显著的正影响,即区域中投资水平越高,Z值越大,房地产上市公司财务风险越小。3、区域变量工业化水平对房地产上市公司Z值有显著的正影响,即工业化水平越高,房地产上市公司Z值越大,房地产上市公司财务风险越小。4、区域经济的对外依存度对房地产上市公司Z值有显著的负影响,即对外依存度越高,Z值越小,房地产上市公司的财务风险越大。5、区域的城市化水平对房地产上市公司的Z值有显著的负影响,即城市化水平越高,Z值越小,房地产上市公司的财务风险越大。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is the pillar industry of our country. There are obvious regional differences in the development of the real estate industry. In recent years, the market differentiation of different cities has become more obvious. The supply of first-tier cities and hot second-tier cities is still short of supply, and the price of house prices is strong. However, the supply and demand structure of most third and fourth tier cities is out of balance, the rising power of house price index is no longer, and the problem of destocking is serious. Therefore, different regional factors will have different effects on the financial risk of listed real estate companies. Many scholars have studied the financial risk factors of listed real estate companies, but the research on the impact of regional factors on the financial risk of listed real estate companies is relatively weak, based on the above background of real estate development. From the point of view of different regional influence on financial risk of listed real estate companies, this paper mainly analyzes whether and what kind of influence regional factors have on the financial risks of listed real estate companies. And which regional differences have a significant impact on the financial risk of listed real estate companies, in order to provide some guidance for real estate companies, At the same time, it provides some references for the development of the real estate industry in government-led areas. The Z-Score model, also known as the Z scoring model, was founded by Professor Edward I.Altman of New York University in the United States. It is mainly based on the liquidity, profitability, and financial structure of enterprises. The smaller the financial condition, the greater the financial risk, the greater the value of Z, the smaller the financial risk. On the basis of regional theory and financial risk theory, this paper takes 40 listed real estate companies in 11 provinces and cities as samples and uses the data of six years from 2009-2014 as the research interval. Taking Z value of real estate listed company as dependent variable, choosing labor participation rate, investment level, industrialization level, external dependence and urbanization level of regional level as independent variables. The first five shareholder shareholding ratio, asset growth rate and asset-liability ratio at the enterprise level are selected as control variables, and the financial risk factors of the listed real estate companies at the regional and enterprise levels are analyzed. And draw the following conclusion: 1, the regional variable labor participation rate has a significant negative impact on the Z value of listed real estate companies, that is, the higher the labor participation rate, the smaller the Z value. The greater the financial risk of real estate listed companies is, the greater the regional investment level has a significant positive effect on the Z value of real estate listed companies, that is, the higher the investment level in the region is, the greater the Z value is. The smaller the financial risk of listed real estate companies is. 3, the higher the industrialization level of the real estate listed companies is, the more the Z value of the real estate listed companies is, that is, the higher the industrialization level, the greater the Z value of the real estate listed companies. The smaller the financial risk of listed real estate companies is. 4, the negative effect of the external dependence of regional economy on the Z value of listed real estate companies is significant, that is, the higher the degree of external dependence is, the smaller the Z value is. The greater the financial risk of real estate listed companies. 5, the regional urbanization level has a significant negative impact on the Z value of real estate listed companies, that is, the higher the urbanization level, the smaller the Z value, the greater the financial risk of real estate listed companies.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.233.42;F832.51

【参考文献】