金融发展与城镇化协同发展研究

发布时间：2018-06-12 09:38

  本文选题：金融发展 + 城镇化　； 参考：《中国农业大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：中国的城镇化进程取得了长足的进步,但是在城镇化进入中后期以后,城市基础设施建设以及基本公共服务供给水平落后于人口城镇化的速度,城镇化持续发展动力不足等一系列隐藏的问题开始凸显出来。与此同时中国金融发展水平虽然也有了较大的提高,但是也存在金融支持产业发展、产业升级力度不足,资本投资效率持续走低以及金融发展规模和结构不平衡等问题。理论和实证分析表明,解决城镇化进程中基础设施和基本公共服务不足的问题需要加大金融支持力度和创新金融支持方式；而理论和实证分析同样表明,提高城镇化质量,进一步提升城市中产业集聚水平以及增强企业和个人的金融需求是促进金融发展水平提高,增强产融结合力度,提升资本投资效率的重要途径。因此,综合考虑金融发展与城镇化所处的发展阶段,统筹兼顾地解决二者面临的问题,是值得借鉴的思路。社会经济环境是一个复杂大系统,子系统的发展不是孤立的,金融发展系统与城镇化系统的关系尤其值得重视。一方面金融发展本身就是在城镇化进程中内生而发展起来的。而在现代经济中,金融发展系统逐渐成为核心系统,对其它社会经济系统的影响力越来越大。协同学理论认为相互影响的系统之间一定存在着协同关系。因此,准确衡量金融发展系统和城镇化系统当前的发展水平,研究两个系统的协同机制并对两个系统当前的协同状况进行判断,对于促使两个系统之间更好地产生协同效应,解决两个系统面临的各自发展问题,并且共同稳定有序地提高发展水平,具有较重要的现实意义。本文对金融发展与城镇化相互影响进行了理论分析。总结了金融发展与城镇化相互影响的基础以及相互影响的路径。在此基础上,构建了金融发展与城镇化水平测度指标体系以及测度模型,并对中国金融发展与城镇化水平进行了测算。利用系统理论序参量原理,将金融发展与城镇化系统各自划分为支撑系统、平衡系统以及动力系统,确定了12个金融发展三级指标以及17个城镇化三级指标,通过计算得出金融发展和城镇化水平。对金融发展与城镇化相互影响进行了计量检验。检验结果表明：X(金融发展水平)与Y(城镇化水平)存在着长期均衡关系。城镇化水平(Y)与金融发展水平(X)互为Granger原因；金融发展三个子系统与城镇化三个子系统之间同样存在长期均衡关系。本文对金融发展与城镇化协同演化机理进行的分析表明,金融发展和城镇化系统中内源因子和外源因子的变化造成系统发生涨落,巨幅涨落会造成系统突变,突变后的系统涌现是两个系统协同的目标；金融发展与城镇化系统主体之间的非线性作用需要系统主体之间的竞争机制、系统与系统之间的耦合机制以及系统与环境之间的治理机制作为保障；利用金融发展和城镇化评价指标体系,对金融发展和城镇化系统的有序度进行了测度,利用有序度建立了协同度评价模型,通过对协同能力、协同容易度以及协同倾向的计算对金融发展与城镇化的协同度进行了测算。结果表明,中国金融发展系统与城镇化系统协同度整体处于上升趋势,但是协同度的波动也明显加大,呈现一种脉冲震荡放大状态；金融发展系统与城镇化系统协同度表现出明显的阶段性特征,协同状态从最初的初始协同阶段上升到目前的协同成长阶段；金融发展支撑子系统和平衡子系统与城镇化三个子系统的协同度同样呈现脉冲震荡放大状态,但是金融发展动力子系统与城镇化三个子系统的协同度呈现脉冲震荡收敛状态。金融发展系统动力子系统有序度波浪式持续下降是金融发展系统有序度上升缓慢的主要原因,同时也是金融发展系统与城镇化系统协同度提升的主要障碍。本文对中国金融发展与城镇化系统协同发展实践进行的总结表明,在金融政策的频繁作用下,金融发展系统有序度出现了几次明显的涨落现象。但是在受到制度和政策性长期因子持续正向作用下,系统间在涨落、突变以后发生了涌现现象,系统协同度进一步上升；城镇化系统与金融发展系统有序度变化对比表明,系统开放性是有序性的基础,而系统的复杂性造就了系统的适应性。最后,为提高金融发展与城镇化系统协同度,本文提出了如下政策建议：微观方面,增强金融企业价值创造能力,提升金融系统主体协同能力；促进城镇化主体人力资本积累,提高城镇化主体协同能力。中观方面,增强金融产业协同能力,形成金融产业与其它产业良好的耦合效果；建立高效的产融结合平台,形成完善的产融结合机制;科学进行城市规划,进一步提升城镇化有序度。宏观方面,增强政策调控的连续性和前瞻性,避免政策调控频率过于频繁而造成系统短期涨落；保持发展战略的稳定性,推动系统长期涨落后形成突变与涌现；建立系统协调信息中心机制,增强系统白组织能力；提升系统开放性,进一步增强系统有序度;增强系统多样性,提升系统适应性。
[Abstract]:The process of urbanization in China has made great progress. But after the middle and late stages of urbanization, the construction of urban infrastructure and the supply level of basic public service are lagging behind the speed of population urbanization, and a series of hidden problems are highlighted. At the same time, the level of China's financial development Although there is a great improvement, there are also problems of financial support industry, insufficient industrial upgrading, low capital investment efficiency and financial development scale and unbalanced structure. The theoretical and empirical analysis shows that the problem of infrastructure and basic public services in the process of urbanization needs to be increased by financial support. The theoretical and empirical analysis also shows that improving the quality of urbanization, further upgrading the level of industrial agglomeration in the city and enhancing the financial demand of enterprises and individuals is an important way to promote the level of financial development, enhance the integration of production and finance, and improve the efficiency of capital investment. Considering the development stage of financial development and urbanization and solving the problems faced by the two, it is worthy of reference. The social and economic environment is a complex and large system, the development of the subsystem is not isolated, the relationship between the financial development system and the urbanization system is especially worth paying attention. On the one hand, the financial development itself is in the city. In the modern economy, in the modern economy, the financial development system has gradually become the core system, and the influence of the other social and economic systems is becoming more and more important. The synergistic theory holds that there must be a synergistic relationship between the systems which interact with each other. Therefore, the current system of financial development and the urbanization system are accurately measured. The level of development, the study of the synergy mechanism of the two systems and the judgement of the current synergies of the two systems are of great practical significance for promoting the synergy between the two systems, solving the development problems of the two systems and raising the level of development in a stable and orderly manner. The mutual influence of exhibition and urbanization is analyzed theoretically. The basis of the mutual influence of financial development and urbanization and the path of mutual influence are summed up. On this basis, the index system and measurement model of the measurement of financial development and urbanization level are constructed, and the level of China's financial development and urbanization is calculated and the system theory is used. The order parameter principle divides the financial development and the urbanization system into the support system, the balance system and the power system, and determines the three level index of the financial development and the three level of the urbanization of 17 urbanization. Through the calculation, the financial development and the urbanization level are obtained. The mutual influence of the financial development and the urbanization is measured and tested. The test knot is carried out. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the level of X (the level of financial development) and the level of urbanization. The level of urbanization (Y) and the level of financial development (X) are Granger, and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the three sub-systems of financial development and the three subsystems of urbanization. This paper is on the mechanism of the co evolution of the financial development and urbanization. The analysis shows that the changes of the endogenous and exogenous factors in the financial development and urbanization system cause the fluctuation of the system, and the huge fluctuation will cause the system mutation. The emergence of the system after the mutation is the target of two systems coordination, and the non linear function between the financial development and the main body of the urbanization system needs the competition mechanism between the main body of the system, The coupling mechanism between the system and the system as well as the governance mechanism between the system and the environment is guaranteed. Using the financial development and the urbanization evaluation index system, the order of the financial development and the urbanization system is measured, and the coordination evaluation model is established by the order degree. The synergistic degree of financial development and urbanization is calculated by the tendency calculation. The results show that the coordination degree of China's financial development system and urbanization system is on the rise as a whole, but the fluctuation of synergism also increases obviously, showing a pulse oscillation amplification state, and the synergism of the financial development system and the urbanization system is obvious. The coordination state of the financial development support subsystem and the three subsystems of urbanization also present the pulse oscillation amplification state, but the synergism of the three subsystems of the financial development power subsystem and the urbanization is presented. The continuous decline in the order degree of the power subsystem of the financial development system is the main reason for the slow increase in the order of the financial development system. It is also the main obstacle to the improvement of the coordination degree of the financial development system and the urbanization system. The summary shows that, under the frequent action of financial policy, the order of the financial development system has appeared several obvious fluctuations. But under the continuous positive effect of the institutional and policy long-term factors, the system is emerging after the fluctuation and the sudden change, the system synergy is further increased; the urbanization system and the financial development department are on the rise. The comparison of the order degree changes shows that the system openness is the basis of order, and the complexity of the system makes the system adaptable. Finally, in order to improve the coordination degree of the financial development and urbanization system, the following policy suggestions are put forward: on the microcosmic aspect, to enhance the creative ability of the value of the financial enterprises and enhance the coordination ability of the financial system. Promote the accumulation of human capital of the main body of urbanization and improve the coordination ability of the main body of urbanization. In the middle aspect, strengthen the cooperative ability of the financial industry, form a good coupling effect between the financial industry and other industries, establish an efficient integration platform of production and melting, form a perfect integration mechanism of production and melting, and scientifically carry out urban planning to further promote the Orderly Urbanization On the macro aspect, we should strengthen the continuity and Prospect of the policy regulation and control, avoid the short-term fluctuations in the system, keep the stability of the development strategy, and promote the mutation and emergence of the system after a long period of fluctuation; establish a system to coordinate the information center of the system, enhance the ability of the system to be white, and enhance the openness of the system, Further enhance the order degree of the system, enhance the diversity of the system, and enhance the adaptability of the system.
【学位授予单位】：中国农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F299.21;F832
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本文编号：2009231