目标导向多参考点属性价值模型及评价方法

发布时间：2018-07-11 16:30

本文选题：属性价值 + 参考点　；参考：《中国管理科学》2017年07期

【摘要】：针对已有规范性决策研究与描述性决策研究尚不能对多参考点共存情形属性价值评价予以全面、直接决策工具支持的不足,通过引入竞争对局及其偏好得分概念提出了基于目标导向效用理论和对局效用比较的新规范性价值函数,在此基础上通过结合范围—频率(RF)理论模型,给出了能够兼顾规范性与描述性两个决策框架的规约性目标导向多参考点属性价值模型及评价方法。相对于规范性目标导向期望价值理论而言,新价值函数在全面科学反映形式多样的决策者偏好结构上具有更为宽广的适用性。相对于RF模型等行为决策理论而言,目标导向多参考点属性价值模型及评价方法克服了行为决策理论模型因其描述性框架性质而不能直接支持决策者属性价值评价的不足,能够对多决策参考点共存情形直接指导决策者的属性价值评价。另外,目标导向多参考点属性价值评价方法将决策目标看成是直接影响方案评价与选择的决策变量,因此也具有发展与深化多属性决策理论的科学价值。模拟验证分析与方法应用表明:目标导向多参考点属性价值评价方法不仅具有广泛的应用适用性,而且在价值评价上也展示出了较强的科学合理性。
[Abstract]:In view of the fact that the existing normative decision-making research and descriptive decision making research can not fully evaluate the attribute value of multi-reference point coexistence situation, direct decision tools support the deficiency. A new normative value function based on goal-oriented utility theory and effectiveness comparison is proposed by introducing the concept of competition and preference score. Based on this, the range frequency (RF) theory model is combined. In this paper, the value model and evaluation method of multi-reference point attribute of target orientation are presented, which can take both normative and descriptive decision framework into account. Compared with the normative goal-oriented expected value theory, the new value function has a wider applicability in the comprehensive scientific reflection of various preference structures of decision makers. Compared with the behavior decision theory such as RF model, the goal-oriented multi-reference point attribute value model and evaluation method overcomes the deficiency that the behavioral decision theory model can not directly support the decision maker attribute value evaluation because of its descriptive framework property. It can directly guide the attribute value evaluation of decision makers under the coexistence of multiple decision reference points. In addition, goal-oriented multi-reference point attribute value evaluation method regards the decision objective as a decision variable that directly affects the evaluation and selection of the project, so it has the scientific value of developing and deepening the multi-attribute decision making theory. Simulation verification analysis and method application show that the goal-oriented multi-reference point attribute value evaluation method not only has wide application applicability, but also shows a strong scientific rationality in value evaluation.
【作者单位】：吉林大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71371083) 长白山学者特聘教授奖励计划(2014018) 吉林大学高峰学科建设项目(2014GSGL)
【分类号】：F224

【相似文献】