养老保险降费率、基金收入与长期收支平衡

发布时间：2018-02-08 13:43

本文关键词： 降费率基金收入长期收支缺口帕累托改进　出处：《中国人口科学》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：降低养老保险缴费率是供给侧结构改革和完善养老保险体系的根本要求,基金收支平衡约束下是否存在降费空间和可能性是不可回避的关键问题。文章以降费率对基金收入、长期收支平衡影响为视角,定量分析降费空间问题。结果发现:(1)降低养老保险缴费率可以提高覆盖率、遵缴率和工资增长率,进而提高短期基金收入,以2014年为模拟期,缴费率降低1个百分点,基金收入提高约394亿元;(2)缴费年限与养老保险基金收支缺口之间存在"倒U"形关系,在缴费未超过25年的情况下,延长缴费年限会增加收支缺口;在超过25年的情况下,延长缴费年限会减小收支缺口;(3)降低养老保险缴费率会提高短期基金收入,但会增加长期基金收支缺口;(4)降费率促进财政收入增加能够补偿降费长期收支缺口,降费率能够实现帕累托改进。
[Abstract]:Reducing the contribution rate of endowment insurance is the fundamental requirement of the reform of supply-side structure and the perfection of pension insurance system. The key problem is whether there is room and possibility of reducing the fee under the constraint of balance of income and expenditure of the fund. From the perspective of long-term balance of payments, quantitative analysis is made on the space for reducing fees. The results show that reducing the contribution rate of pension insurance can increase the coverage rate, compliance rate and wage growth rate, and then increase the short-term fund income, taking 2014 as the simulation period. When the contribution rate is reduced by 1 percentage point, the income of the fund will be increased by 39.4 billion yuan.) there is a "inverted U" relationship between the years of payment and the gap of income and expenditure of the pension fund. If the payment is not more than 25 years, the extension of the payment period will increase the gap of income and expenditure. In the case of more than 25 years, extending the contributory life will reduce the gap between income and expenditure. Reducing the contribution rate of pension insurance will increase the income of short-term funds. However, it will increase the gap of long-term fund income and expenditure. (4) reducing the rate to promote the increase of fiscal revenue can compensate for the gap of long-term revenue and expenditure, and the lower rate can realize the Pareto improvement.
【作者单位】：辽宁大学人口研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“基础养老保险缴费率一元化及适度水平研究”(编号:71373110)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F812.45;F842.67

【相似文献】