新型农村社会养老保险的制度效应及可持续性研究

发布时间：2018-02-08 16:38

本文关键词： 新型农村社会养老保险社会福利效应劳动力供给效应可持续性　出处：《南京农业大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国与当前众多发展中国家一样,正面临人口老龄化的问题,并且农村人口老龄化形势较城镇更为严重。与此同时,中国农村传统的养老模式正逐渐发生变化,一方面,随着农村青壮年劳动力不断向城镇转移,中国传统的农村家庭养老保障方式维系的基础开始动摇；另一方面,农业的比较收益的持续降低导致农村土地的保障功能逐步弱化,以上变化使得中国农村养老问题变得日益严峻。近年来,国家对农村养老问题日益重视,2009年9月,国务院开始了新农保的试点工作。自新农保试点以来受到了广大衣民的欢迎,其覆盖率快速提高。2014年2月,国家将新农保与城居保合并为城乡居民社会养老保险,并提出要根据国家经济发展和物价变动等情况,适时调整城乡居民社会养老保险基础养老金最低标准。可以预见随着国家农村社会养老保障体系的日益完善,农村老人的经济条件将得到逐步提高。基于以上背景,本文基于新农保的制度框架下,首先对新农保实施的制度效应进行了科学评价,主要从社会福利效应和劳动力供给效应这两个维度来进行。关于新农保的社会福利效应,从福利经济学的角度讲,养老保险制度的一个重要作用在于调节收入差距。新农保本质上就是一种收入再分配机制,通过资金筹集与支付的不对等而实现对收入分配的调节作用：一方面,新农保作为一项社会保障制度,各级政府对基础养老金和个人缴费均实行不同程度的财政补贴,从而可能产生参保与未参保人群之间的收入再分配；另一方面,即使在同一制度安排下,由于参保人的参保时间长短、收入高低、寿命等因素不同,也会产生收入再分配。因此,新农保当前制度安排是否有利于缩小农村地区的贫富差距?政府采取何种补贴形式更有利于缩小贫富差距和提高农村社会福利水平?关于新农保的劳动力供给效应,养老金被认为是影响劳动者退休的重要因素(Feldstein,1974;Samwick,1998)。通常而言,劳动者在年老后退出劳动力市场被视为其福利状况改善的一个显示性指标。本文关注的是农村老人的福利状况,以老人是否能减少劳动供给为代表性指标,减少则代表了新农保的财富效应导致农村老人劳动供给产生变化。在对新农保制度效应科学评价的基础上,本文进一步基于微观视角探讨了新农保制度的可持续性。以往农村社会养老保险制度不够成功的一个重要原因就是对农户的吸引力不足导致农户的参保积极性不高,并且难以激励农户持续参保。这种情况下,当前农户新农保的参加和缴费情况如何?影响农户持续参保和缴费的主要因素有哪些?如何完善新农保制度设计来促进农户的持续参保和缴费?围绕以上问题,本文采用农业部农村固定观察点全国抽样调查数据和江苏宿迁一手调研数据,对新农保的制度效应及可持续性展开了理论分析和实证考察,本文主要研究内容和相关结论如下：研究内容一：新农保社会福利效应的测算与分析本部分内容的研究目标是考察不同收入组农户的新农保缴费和养老金收入情况,以此评价新农保制度潜在的收入再分配效应和社会福利效应。研究结果表明：第一当前新农保的实施能有效缩小农户的收入差距和提高农村社会福利水平,新农保缴费会扩大农村居民的收入差距,而养老金收入会缩小农村居民的收入差距。第二,从东、中、西部地区间比较来看,当前新农保对缩小中部地区农户的收入差距和提高当地农村社会福利水平最为有利、东部次之、西部最弱。分开讨论新农保的缴费和养老金收入环节,新农保缴费对西部地区农户收入差距的影响最大,而新农保养老金收入则对中部地区农户收入差距的影响最大。第三,当前新农保政策中“捆绑条款”的实施在总体上显著减少了农户新农保养老金收入,对新农保的收入再分配效应及社会福利效应均具有抑制作用。第四,在现有政策框架下,新农保的实施能持续缩小农村居民的收入差距、提高农村社会福利水平,而若新农保的待遇水平保持不变,新农保调节农村居民收入差距和提高农村社会福利水平的作用会呈现“先增后减”的变化趋势。研究内容二：新农保劳动力供给效应的实证分析本部分内容的研究目标是探讨新农保养老金收入对农村老人劳动供给的影响,以此评价新农保制度的劳动力供给效应。研究结果表明：第一,新农保养老金收入能显著减少农村老人的劳动供给、提高农村老人的福利水平。第二,相对于本地非农劳动和外出就业劳动,新农保养老金收入对农村老人农业劳动供给的影响更大,提高养老金收入会更多减少农村老人农业劳动的时间。第三,新农保养老金收入对不同类型农村老人劳动供给的影响存在一定的差异,对男性老人劳动供给的影响大于女性老人；对年龄越接近60岁农村老人的劳动供给行为的影响越大；新农保养老金收入主要影响中等健康水平农村老人的劳动供给行为,对健康状况较好和较差的农村老人的劳动供给没有显著影响；新农保养老金收入对不同地区老人劳动供给行为的影响从东部至西部呈现递增的变化趋势。因此,增加新农保养老金收入对提高男性老人、年龄接近60岁的老人、健康状况为中等水平的老人以及西部地区老人的福利水平更为有利。研究内容三：基于微观视角的新农保制度可持续性分析本部分内容的研究目标是确定影响农户新农保参加和缴费的主要因素,并在此基础上基于微观视角探讨新农保制度的可持续性。研究结果表明：第一,家庭经济条件、耕地面积和户主文化程度是影响农户新农保参加概率的重要因素,当前新农保制度对收入较高、家庭耕地面积较小和户主文化程度较低的农户的吸引力相对较弱。第二,家庭经济条件、养老负担和教育支出压力是制约农户新农保缴费支出的重要因素。因此,随着农村居民收入水平的提高以及教育、医疗等其他社会保障制度的逐步完善,可以预见,农户的新农保缴费能力以及所选缴费档次将会逐步提高。第三,从地区差异来看,相对于东部地区农户,中、西部地区农户参加新农保的概率更高,但缴费金额要更少。第四,当前“捆绑条款”的实施对农户新农保参加概率具有积极影响,但相对于高收入人群, “捆绑条款”对低收入人群参保概率的影响更大,并由此可能导致“逆向选择”的问题。
[Abstract]:As with the current China of many developing countries are facing the problem of population aging, and the aging of the rural population is urban situation more serious. At the same time, the traditional rural endowment pattern Chinese is gradually changing, on the one hand, with the young labor force in rural areas to cities and towns, based China traditional rural family pension mode to maintain began to shake; on the other hand, the relative yield of agriculture continued decrease of rural land security function is gradually weakening, these changes make the rural old-age problem Chinese has become increasingly serious. In recent years, countries pay more attention to the rural old-age problem, in September 2009, the State Council began the pilot work of the new agricultural insurance. The new agricultural insurance pilot has been the majority of farmers welcome, the coverage rate of the rapid increase in.2014 in February, the country will be the new agricultural insurance and home insurance combined city for urban and rural residents in the community The endowment insurance, and put forward according to the national economic development and price changes, pension and social endowment insurance of urban and rural residents basic minimum standards can be predicted timely adjustment. With the national rural social old-age insurance system is increasingly perfect, the elderly in rural economic conditions will be gradually improved. Based on the above background, this paper based on the framework of the new agricultural insurance system under the effect of the new agricultural insurance system firstly carried out scientific evaluation, mainly from the two dimensions of social welfare effect and labor supply effect. On the social welfare effects of new agricultural insurance, welfare from the perspective of economics, one of the important role of the endowment insurance system is to regulate the income gap between the new agricultural insurance. Nature is a kind of income redistribution mechanism, through the financing and payment of the asymmetry and realize the regulation of income distribution: on the one hand, the new agricultural insurance as A social security system, the implementation of all levels of government are different levels of financial subsidies for basic pension and individual contributions, which may generate income redistribution between insured and uninsured; on the other hand, even in the same arrangement system, because the insured person insured the length of time, the level of income, life and other factors are different. It will produce the redistribution of income. Therefore, the new agricultural insurance the current institutional arrangement is conducive to narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor in rural areas? What government subsidies form is more conducive to narrowing the gap between rich and poor and improve the level of rural social welfare? About the effect of the new agricultural insurance supply of labor pension is considered as an important factor affecting the Worker Retirement (Feldstein, 1974; Samwick, 1998). Generally speaking, workers in the old out of the labor market is a display index as the improvement of its welfare state. This paper pays attention to Is the rural elderly welfare to the elderly can reduce labor supply for the representative index, reduce the wealth effect on behalf of the new agricultural insurance in the rural elderly labor supply changes. Based on the insurance effect of scientific evaluation of the new farmers, this paper further based on the sustainable micro perspective of the new agricultural insurance system one of the important reasons. The rural social endowment insurance system is not successful on appeal due to the lack of their enthusiasm is not high, and it is difficult to encourage farmers to continue the insured. In this case, how the farmers in the new agricultural insurance and payment of the current? What are the main factors influencing farmers' sustainable insurance? How to improve the new agricultural insurance system designed to promote farmers' sustainable insurance? Based on the above problems, the Ministry of agriculture rural fixed observation point national sample Check the data and Jiangsu Suqian first-hand survey data, the theoretical analysis and Empirical Study on the effect of the new agricultural insurance system and sustainability, the main research contents and conclusions are as follows: Part One: the calculation of the new agricultural insurance and social welfare effect analysis in this part of the goal of the research is to study the new rural farmers with different income group insurance payment and pension income, in order to evaluate the new agricultural insurance income redistribution effect and social welfare effect of system potential. The results show that the first implementation of the new agricultural insurance can effectively narrow the income gap between farmers and rural areas to raise the level of social welfare, the new agricultural insurance payment will expand the income gap of rural residents, and pension income will narrow the income gap of rural residents. Second, from the East, in the western region, the comparison between the current and new agricultural insurance to narrow the income gap of farmers in central and To improve the level of the local rural social welfare is most favorable, Higashibe Jinno, the west is the weakest. The discussion of the new agricultural insurance premiums and pension income sectors separately, the new agricultural insurance payment effect on Farmers' income gap between the western region and the largest pension income impact on Farmers' income gap in the central region is the largest. Third, implementation of the new rural insurance policy of "binding" clause in general significantly reduced farmers' pension income has inhibitory effect on the redistribution of income and social welfare effects of new agricultural insurance. In fourth, the existing policy framework, the implementation of the new agricultural insurance can continue to narrow the income gap of rural residents, improve the level of rural areas the social welfare, and if the new agricultural insurance benefits remain unchanged, the new agricultural insurance and adjust the income gap of rural residents and improve the level of rural social welfare function will show the first increase and then decrease "change Trend. Two research contents: the aim of the study empirical analysis of the new agricultural insurance labor supply effect of this part is to explore the effect of the new agricultural insurance pension income for rural elderly labor supply, in order to evaluate the effect of the new agricultural insurance system of labor supply. The results show that: first, the new agricultural insurance pension income can significantly reduce the elderly in rural areas the supply of labor, improve the rural elderly welfare level. Second, compared to the local non-agricultural labor and employment of labor, effect of pension income on agricultural labor supply of the rural elderly more, improve pension income will reduce more of the rural elderly agricultural labor time. Third, there are some differences between the effects of the new agricultural insurance pension income the elderly in the rural areas of different types of labor supply, labor supply effect on elderly men more than women for the elderly; age is nearly 60 years old rural elderly The greater the effect of labor supply behavior; labor supply behavior mainly affects the pension income of rural elderly secondary health level, has no significant effect on the health status of good and poor rural elderly labor supply; effect of pension income in different areas for the elderly labor supply behavior from the east to the West showed a trend of increasing. Therefore, increase pension income to improve the elderly men, aged nearly 60 years old, the health status of the elderly and the elderly is of medium level western welfare level is more favorable. The research contents: three research objectives of the new agricultural insurance system from the perspective of micro sustainability analysis based on the content of this part is to determine influence of the new agricultural insurance and farmers the main factors in payment, and on the basis of sustainable micro perspective to explore the new agricultural insurance system. Based on the research results Ming: first, family economic conditions, cultivated land area and the education level of farmers is an important factor affecting farmers new agricultural insurance to participate in the probability, the new agricultural insurance system of higher income, farmers and small household culture with a low degree of farmland area family appeal is relatively weak. In second, the family economic conditions, the pressure of pension burden and education expenditure is an important factor restricting farmers new agricultural insurance payment expenditure. Therefore, with the income level of rural residents and the improvement of education, medical and other social security system gradually perfect, it can be predicted that the new agricultural farmers insurance payment ability and selected payment level will gradually increase. Third, from the regional differences, with respect to the eastern region of farmers in the western region, farmers participate in the new agricultural insurance probability is higher, but the payment amount to less. Fourth, implementation of the "bundling" clause in the probability of farmers new agricultural insurance It has a positive impact, but relative to the high income group, the "binding clause" has a greater impact on the insured participation probability of the low-income group, which may lead to the problem of adverse selection.

【学位授予单位】：南京农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F323.89;F842.67

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