农业保险对农民收入的稳定效应——来自省级面板数据的实证检验

发布时间：2018-04-03 06:50

本文选题：农业保险　切入点：农民收入　出处：《江苏农业科学》2017年10期

【摘要】：农业保险的重要作用是稳定农民收入,从而提高风险厌恶型的农业生产者的预期效用。从宏观角度研究农业保险对农民收入的稳定作用,使用包括农民收入、农业产值、保费收入、受教育水平、生产规模、兼业化程度等省级数据。将观测期为12年的数据分为前后2期,分别计算前后2期内农民收入的波动性,将农民收入波动性作为因变量,将人均保费水平作为主要自变量,同时考虑产量波动、生产规模、兼业化程度、教育水平等控制变量的影响。使用面板数据固定效应和随机效应分别回归,结果显示,无论固定效应还是随机效应模型下,农业保费收入对农民收入的波动性都有显著正影响,即农业保险密度的提高会增加农民收入的波动性。这可能是由于保险改变了农民生产决策行为,例如增加已投保的农产品的种植面积,从而使得未投保的农民收入面临更大的波动,在农业保险覆盖率不高的情况下可能增加农民收入的整体波动。
[Abstract]:The important function of agricultural insurance is to stabilize farmers' income and improve the expected utility of risk-averse agricultural producers.This paper studies the stabilizing effect of agricultural insurance on farmers' income from a macro perspective, using provincial data including farmers' income, agricultural output value, premium income, education level, scale of production, degree of concurrent employment, and so on.The data of 12 years of observation are divided into two periods, and the fluctuation of farmers' income is calculated respectively. The fluctuation of farmers' income is regarded as dependent variable, the per capita premium level is regarded as the main independent variable, and the fluctuation of output is taken into account.The influence of production scale, degree of concurrent operation, educational level and other control variables.Using panel data, the fixed effect and random effect are regressed respectively. The results show that the volatility of farmers' income is significantly positively affected by the agricultural premium income under the fixed effect or stochastic effect model.That is, the increase in the density of agricultural insurance will increase the volatility of farmers' income.This may be due to the fact that insurance has changed farmers' production decisions, such as increasing the area under which insured agricultural products are grown, thus causing greater fluctuations in the incomes of uninsured farmers.In the case of low agricultural insurance coverage may increase the overall fluctuation of farmers' income.
【作者单位】：江西农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：江西省社会科学规划项目(编号:15YJ22) 江西现代农业及其优势产业可持续发展的决策支持协同创新中心课题(编号:XDNYA1503)
【分类号】：F323.8;F842.66

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