企业职工基本养老保险基金精算研究

发布时间：2018-04-03 07:53

本文选题：养老保险　切入点：精算理论　出处：《山东师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：养老保险是按国家《社会保险法》的政策规定强制实施，保障广大离退休人员基本生活需要的保障制度。它位于社会保障体系的核心地位，在保障退休人员基本生活、促进经济发展等方面都发挥着重要作用。然而，由于近年来老年人口的迅速增加以及制度转轨成本、累积债务等原因，现行养老保险基金的收支矛盾日益凸显。养老保险制度平稳运行的关键是基金收支长期保持平衡性。这不仅关系到退休职工的退休以后的生活保障和生活质量，，而且关系到整个社会的和谐稳定和社会老龄化进程的安全过渡。养老保险基金收支测算分析涉及精算学科、人口学科、统计学科等多方面知识，本文采取的方法是养老保险基金平衡精算分析。在精算分析中，以概率论和数量统计为基础，与社会、经济、人口有关科学相结合，综合人口预测理论、工资和利率预测理论、利息理论、生命表理论，对养老保险基金未来财务收支和债务水平进行评价，测算在给定的社会保障资源下可能提供的保障水平，或者为了实现一定得保障水平必须具备的经济能力，从而为社会保障制度的平衡发展提供依据。因此，本文通过介绍社会保险精算的基本理论，建立企业职工养老保险基金精算分析模型，量化影响养老保险收支的各种因素，通过数学模型预测出未来若干年养老保险基金的收入和支出，测算在制度的目标期间内养老保险基金是否保持平衡；同时在建立精算模型的基础上测算如何适度调节变量的关系以保证养老保险基金达到平衡状态，最后再结合某省的历史相关数据和实际情况进行实证分析，以期解决养老保险基金长期运行中的问题。
[Abstract]:The old-age insurance is according to the national "social insurance law" the policy stipulation compulsory implementation, guarantees the general retired person's basic life need safeguard system.It lies in the core position of social security system and plays an important role in protecting the basic life of retirees and promoting economic development.However, due to the rapid increase of the elderly population, the cost of system transition and the accumulation of debts in recent years, the contradiction between income and expenditure of the current pension insurance fund has become increasingly prominent.The key to the smooth operation of the pension insurance system is to keep the balance of fund income and expenditure for a long time.This is not only related to the life security and quality of life of retired workers after retirement, but also related to the harmony and stability of the whole society and the safe transition of the aging process of the society.The calculation and analysis of pension fund income and expenditure involve many aspects of knowledge, such as actuarial discipline, population discipline, statistics subject, etc. The method adopted in this paper is actuarial analysis of pension fund balance.In actuarial analysis, on the basis of probability theory and quantitative statistics, combined with social, economic and population-related sciences, comprehensive population forecasting theory, wage and interest rate forecasting theory, interest theory, life table theory,To evaluate the future financial income and expenditure and the level of debt of the pension insurance fund, to calculate the level of security that may be provided under a given social security resource, or the economic ability that must be possessed in order to achieve a certain level of security.Thus provides the basis for the balanced development of the social security system.Therefore, by introducing the basic theory of social insurance actuarial, this paper establishes the actuarial analysis model of pension insurance fund for enterprise employees, quantifies the various factors that affect the income and expenditure of pension insurance.This paper predicts the income and expenditure of pension insurance fund in the coming years by mathematical model, and calculates whether the pension insurance fund will maintain balance during the target period of the system.At the same time, on the basis of establishing an actuarial model, it calculates how to adjust the relationship between variables in order to ensure that the pension insurance fund reaches a balanced state. Finally, combining with the historical data and the actual situation of a certain province, the empirical analysis is carried out.With a view to solving the pension fund in the long-term operation of the problem.
【学位授予单位】：山东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F842.67

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