基于随机概率逆映射的农作物干旱风险研究
发布时间：2018-08-07 15:05
【摘要】：本文使用随机概率逆映射模型生成随机数,进而运用蒙特卡罗方法研究干旱风险对农作物产量损失的影响,在此基础上建立了农作物干旱风险评估模型,该模型解决了传统农业风险量化分析方法中存在的信息丢失问题。通过对吉林省延吉地区的玉米干旱风险进行实证研究发现,农作物干旱风险评估模型能够反映特定地区干旱风险对农作物的影响程度,反映出某一地区农作物对降雨量的依赖程度,综合地反映出特定地区农作物的干旱风险水平。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the stochastic number is generated by using the stochastic probability inverse mapping model, and then the effect of drought risk on crop yield loss is studied by Monte Carlo method. Based on this, a crop drought risk assessment model is established. The model solves the problem of information loss in the traditional quantitative analysis method of agricultural risk. Through the empirical study on drought risk of maize in Yanji region of Jilin Province, it is found that crop drought risk assessment model can reflect the impact of drought risk on crops in specific areas. It reflects the degree of crop dependence on rainfall, and comprehensively reflects the drought risk level of crops in a certain area.
【作者单位】： 中央财经大学保险学院/中国精算研究院;
【分类号】：F842.66
，
本文编号：2170412
[Abstract]:In this paper, the stochastic number is generated by using the stochastic probability inverse mapping model, and then the effect of drought risk on crop yield loss is studied by Monte Carlo method. Based on this, a crop drought risk assessment model is established. The model solves the problem of information loss in the traditional quantitative analysis method of agricultural risk. Through the empirical study on drought risk of maize in Yanji region of Jilin Province, it is found that crop drought risk assessment model can reflect the impact of drought risk on crops in specific areas. It reflects the degree of crop dependence on rainfall, and comprehensively reflects the drought risk level of crops in a certain area.
【作者单位】： 中央财经大学保险学院/中国精算研究院;
【分类号】：F842.66
，
本文编号：2170412
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/jingjilunwen/bxjjlw/2170412.html
